The Yellow Peril 2.0 Has A Low Kill-Rate
The Wuhan or Chinese
Virus, as it should be properly known, has a low kill-rate. This is quite
unlike the Spanish Flu, of exactly 100 years ago, that killed millions of
people around the globe. The lack of medical sophistication of the time may
have had a lot to do with that. But now, look at India; the kill-rate from this
imported virus is below 2% of those infected so far, with just over 1000 active
cases, and 19 dead. This despite a spike upwards of under a 100 cases in just
one day, yesterday.
Now we are purportedly in
stage 3 of the expected community spread. This involves infection and kill-rates between
people who have not come from abroad themselves, nor were in touch with anyone
who has recently returned from a country where the Wuhan Virus is rampant.
However, the authorities are not signalling a community spread yet. Sangli, in
Maharashtra, that saw 24 members of one extended family test positive after just
one member came back from Saudi Arabia, has been quarantined.
The current statistics
and kill-rate may well spike upwards as the lock-down imposed by the Central
Government has been decisively breached within just 8 days, from last Sunday. Lakhs
of migrant workers have set off in defiance of curfew, determined to go back to
their villages from the cities, particularly Delhi and Mumbai.
Uttar Pradesh has been
forced to press 1,000 buses into motion to ferry some of these workers to their
native villages, even as it will attempt to test and quarantine the returnees. Others intend to go to Bihar, Rajasthan,
Gujarat- also from one southern state to another. Transport is hard to come by
in the lock-down, so many, with wives and children in tow, are walking down the
highways. They are flouting the lock-down with impunity, as the authorities are
loathe to use force on these very poor people. They will hike hundreds of kilometres if no transport comes
to hand. The migrant workers prefer this hardship to being penniless and out-of-work
in the city.
State governments in
some cases, are clearly not up to the task of looking after migrant workers over
a prolonged period. Plus there is a fair
amount of underlying political jockeying for advantage. Some forces are
apparently not keen to see this lock-down succeed, even at the cost of
suffering, sickness, lives lost.
The Delhi government, it is reported, cut off
the electricity and water to the slum clusters where the migrant workers from
UP and Bihar lived in the capital. It even ferried them to the state borders in
DTC buses meant to be used only for those engaged in essential services
currently.
Meanwhile, the global
kill-rate presently is 30,839 from 662,543 active cases, or just over 4.5%. Another
142,364 people have recovered so far. This includes those in the worst affected
countries such as Italy and the United States. And, of course, central China’s
Wuhan Province, where it all began.
This reportedly from the
consumption of bats and bat-soup, along with other wild animals and creatures
not usually associated with the human food chain. The Chinese Government has,
since this outbreak, banned the consumption of wild animals and birds. However,
apparently, the specific traditional
markets, where these creatures were sold in Wuhan, are said to be back in
operation.
Conspiracy theorists
have suggested, in a parallel train of thought, that this Wuhan Virus was
inadvertently leaked, or deliberately released, from a Chinese government biological
warfare laboratory in the province.
The Government of China
has refused to discuss what happened at the UNSC, with the help of Russia that
sided with it. It has also muzzled all internal query or criticism on the matter
as well. An early whistle-blowing doctor has died from the Wuhan Virus. A
Chinese businessman that criticised the handling of the crisis by the Xi Jinping
led junta has gone missing. American journalists based in China from WSJ and
the NYT were expelled for writing negative pieces.
Several young Chinese,
long dormant after the debacle of Tiananmen Square, decades ago, are once again
attempting to carry the torch of transparency at great personal risk. There is
some ineffective criticism reported in the Chinese media, of President Xi
Jinping’s leadership, particularly about keeping his own people in the dark.
China, on its part,
presently claims it is mostly over the pandemic. It is gradually opening up in Wuhan,
though it still does not allow people to travel in or out of the state.
Foreigners are also not allowed into China after several returning students
from the West brought the infection into Beijing. It is extraordinary how there
have been no Wuhan Virus infections
reported, let alone a kill-rate before now, in either Beijing or Shanghai and the manufacturing region
around the latter.
China has also restarted
its immense manufacturing machine to mitigate the hit to its economy. It is
exporting masks, gloves, sanitisers, ventilators, medicines, to Europe and
elsewhere. China is also reportedly buying up large chunks of equity in leading
companies all over the West via the stock markets, at a fraction of their usual
prices. And petroleum at bargain basement prices.
At the same time, China
has made bold to call all attempts to hold it responsible or culpable in any
manner for sanctions or reparations, as both racist and unwarranted. China has
even suggested that the virus was, in fact, introduced by the Americans, via
NATO, into Wuhan Province.
Playing off the same
song-sheet, the WHO labelling of the Wuhan Virus has tried to give its origins
a neutral patina. This, by calling it Coronavirus or Covid -19. It is a
collusive attempt to distance China from the opprobrium of originating and spreading
it, and its kill-rate.
Millions of Chinese have
been travelling from Wuhan and elsewhere over the Chinese New Year, before, and
after. The devastation that the Wuhan Virus has caused to the leading economies
of the world has driven almost all of them into recession.
In this, the WHO, led
currently by a non-medical Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, from
Ethiopia, who came to the top job, after covering up two SARS epidemics in his
home country, is largely instrumental.
Word on the street is
that Ghebreyesus is a Chinese puppet, and helped in the initial cover up regarding
the Chinese Virus. WHO even put out a message saying the Wuhan Virus was not
contagious initially, this around December 2019. WHO did not call for any
lock-down or issue any cautionary travel advisory either, even though it was in-the-know
from November 2019 .
What has become
subsequently clear is that the Wuhan Virus is extremely contagious, and makes
those who are infected with it very sick with high fever, no sense of taste or
smell, a very sore throat and difficulty in breathing. The most severe cases
need to be put on ventilators in order to survive, if at all.
However, empirical
evidence suggests that it kills mostly those with low immunity. This, from
underlying and existing conditions, such as hypertension, diabetes, AIDS, heart
disease. Also, those who are in ill-health from various causes, recovering
cancer patients, the elderly. At the same time, a tough 103 year old has
reportedly recovered from the Wuhan Virus.
There is no preventive
vaccine as yet, and no specific drugs to treat the Wuhan Virus. Doctors, many
of whom have died in the attempt, particularly in Italy, treat the Wuhan Virus
symptomatically. They use a variety of medicines in their efforts, based on individual
patient profiles and symptoms. There may well be more than one strain of the
Wuhan Virus, varying in virulence. Some countries and its people may be less
susceptible. The onset of summer might well reduce the potency of this
pandemic.
As India stares at another
17 days and nights of lock-down, there are those who are wondering if the forceful
attempt to win over the Wuhan Virus is coming at too great an economic cost.
India’s GDP forecast for
2020 post the Wuhan Virus lock-down, is now at 2.5%, down from an already weak
5.3%. Also, maintaining the lock-down is
proving difficult, despite there being no air or rail transport, and no
scheduled international flights. The economic activity has had to grind to a
standstill, and this hits the poor, middle-class and rich alike. The poor seem to
be saying they would rather not die of starvation, Wuhan Virus notwithstanding.
There are supply bottlenecks, administrative confusion, and implementation
difficulties. The economy already weak
due to low demand and massive NPAs is reeling from this fresh shock.
All this then, for a kill-rate
of under 5% of those made sick, even without
a lock-down.
America, where the
epicentre of the Wuhan Virus infections is in New York, along with the nearby
states of New Jersey and Connecticut, has decided, on balance, not to
quarantine these states.
In fact, it has not
locked-down anywhere, even as it has the largest number of infected people
currently in the world. Most Americans do not have expensive medical insurance,
and are self confining in their homes if infected. People are being advised to
maintain social distance and are doing so voluntarily in the main, after a
period of defiance and negligence.
It might then be argued,
in view of the low kill-rate from the Wuhan Virus, despite its rapid and extreme
contagion, that the Indian lock-down cannot be justified beyond April 15th
. This, even as there is some doubt whether it can be sustained till then.
The contagion will not
be gone by April 15th but the question that is being asked is
whether the prevention is proving more expensive than the cure.
For: SirfNews
(1,612 words)
March 29th 2020
Gautam Mukherjee
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