BJP Consolidates Its Hold On Maharashtra
The first civic elections after 25 years to be fought
independently by the BJP and the Shiv Sena, has seen BJP fall short in the
Mumbai metropolis by just 3 seats.
It won 81, out of the 227 seat Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation
(BMC).
The BJP has also scored decisive wins in the hinterland of Maharashtra,
and thrown the question of which formation can control the BMC independently into
considerable confusion. Congress has 31, others have 24, and MNS scored with 7
seats.
Either BJP or Shiv Sena will need 30 seats, or more, and
this near impossibility, given the options, may thrust them, once again, willy-nilly,
into each other’s arms.
Shiv Sena, despite a strenuous bid to go it alone and win a
majority, has struggled to barely keep a nose ahead, at 84, in the end. It has
just retained its title as the single largest party in the Mumbai BMC, but well
short of the majority mark at 114.
The BJP nearly trebled its tally, up to 81 from 32 in 2012.
The BMC, with a budget of some Rs. 40,000 crores, the
largest in the country, is viewed as a prestigious prize.
But retaining control of it, despite very patchy governance
marked by allegations of corruption over its last term, is a matter of its very
survival for the Shiv Sena. This, given that it has no footprint at all outside
Maharashtra.
And yet, it is evidently in no position to do much except share power and decision-making once again. In fact, it is considerably weakened in comparison to its position in 2012.
The widely perceived to be Marathi manoos party has
also managed to top out and hold on in adjoining Thane.
But its grip on a demographic that is rapidly changing to
contain almost as many people from North India, Gujarat, and elsewhere, as it
has Marathi speaking natives, is definitely slipping.
In the hinterland, the municipalities of Pune (last with
Sharad Pawar’s NCP), Nasik (last with Raj Thackeray’s MNS), and Nagpur (its own last
time too), went outright to the BJP.
Pune, a large industrial and urban hub, another prize in
particular, has moved out of Sharad Pawar’s grasp.
Raj Thackeray is ostensibly barely hanging on in the power equation
of Maharashtra, but might get a second
wind if there is horse trading involved shortly.
These other
municipality wins in the partially rural interiors, serviced largely by
cooperative banks, were meant to have been hard hit by demonetisation. That
they have voted solidly for BJP proves that the public there appear to be in
support of the move.
This contradicts the negative rhetoric put out on the matter
by the Shiv Sena, Congress, and others.
The generally routed Congress in the other municipal
contests, despite its very different political positioning, could conceivably
play a part in the post-BMC election scenario. It does have the next largest
block of 31 seats, and has been making enthusiastic congratulatory noises in
favour of Shiv Sena.
If the BJP and Shiv Sena stick together however, recent
acrimony will need to be forgotten in favour of the bigger cause. This, of
course, is no big impediment in Indian raj niti , or indeed politics
anywhere. Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) in Bihar, something of a band of prodigal
sons, will probably endorse this position too.
It might however leave the voters of Mumbai frustrated,
because it was the self-same Shiv Sena/BJP combine, albeit with very many more
seats in favour of the Shiv Sena, that ran the municipality very badly for the last
five years.
Pot-holes likened to craters, and flooding, in the absence of adequate drainage/the destruction of mangrove swamps etc. pose serious risks every single monsoon. These two grouses are amongst a host of other shortcomings that make the richest municipality in the country amongst the poorest in terms of delivery.
And this in a city that has impossibly high real estate
rates and massive over-crowding. If BJP/Shiv Sena do get together again, they
will have to do much better this time.
The Devendra Fadnavis led BJP government in Maharashtra,
with grudging Shiv Sena support, has evidently consolidated its hold after the
results of these civic polls.
These results make it even more difficult for the Shiv Sena
to withdraw support, particularly with the NCP still waiting in the wings to
make up the difference.
That it has come to this between the ostensibly uneasy
allies, both at the state and centre, does not affect BJP as much as it does
the Shiv Sena.
The saffron regional party, that has been unable to spread outside
Maharashtra, appears to be in decline.
The Maharashtra municipal elections and its apparent
endorsement of demonetisation also augurs well for similarly profiled urban and
rural interior assembly seats in the ongoing elections in Uttar Pradesh,
conducting its fourth phase simultaneously.
BJP has, from all reports, a very good chance of winning a majority
in Uttar Pradesh, and some of the other smaller states presently.
If it does win in the 403 seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly, come
the results on March 11th, it will be able to considerably improve
its numbers in the Rajya Sabha, and be in a much better position to pass
legislation preparatory to the general elections in 2019.
The favourable “semi-final”, it is thought, will harbinger
the outcome of the final.
A broader point, in the backdrop of both Maharashtra and
Uttar Pradesh, and indeed the ongoing tussles in Tamil Nadu and lesser problems
in other states, such as Bengal, Orissa, Karnataka and Delhi, is that the
regional parties, and not just the Congress shrunk to likewise size and stature,
seem to be self-destructing.
This happening simultaneously in different parts of the
country, is entirely to a resurgent BJP’s
advantage.
The SP internal feud is a case in point. The AIADMK in the
aftermath of the death of J.Jayalalithaa, is another.
How the centrifugal and centripetal forces in the regional
parties will multiply, particularly without the oxygen of power going forward,
is something we will have to wait for in order to see.
(1,014 words)
February 23rd, 2017
Gautam Mukherjee