India’s Military Deterrence: Iron Domes &
Missiles First
If India’s Defence Research & Development
Organisation (DRDO) has succeeded at anything, it is in the developing of
missiles. This stands out in contrast to the tardiness and failure in many of its
other projects.
‘Missile Man’ Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, kicked off India’s
Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP). He did so in 1982, and
went on to become President of the republic much later.
Nuclear missile systems already inducted into the armed
forces began with the Prithvi surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and the
naval variant Dhanush.
This was followed by the Agni I-III medium-to-long-range
ballistic missile variants.
The Agni IV with a range of 3,500 Km. is at final stages
of its test runs, and so is Agni V. There are also nuclear capable missiles
from the K Series, developed for India’s first indigenous nuclear submarine
Arihant.
Agni V is about to be inducted into the Indian Army. When
this happens, India will join the US, China, Britain and France, as the only
countries with the technology to manufacture Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).
This Indian ICBM is ‘canisterised’ and road-worthy. The Agni
V costs about $7 million each. It can carry a payload of 1,500 kg of nuclear
warheads. It has a range of at least 5,000 km using three stage solid fuel
engines.
The first test on Agni V was carried out in 2012, and
again in 2013. The last one was in 2015. All were accurate and successful per specified
performance parameters. Probably the final one is expected to take place any day
now.
The Agni V can carry 2-10 multiple nuclear warheads meant
for different targets simultaneously, separated by hundreds of kilometres.
This technology-multiple independently targetable
re-entry vehicles (MIRV), has also been developed in-house.
The Agni V’s declared range of 5,000 Km. puts areas of
northern China within reach. But logistics and the vulnerability of moving the
17.5 metre long 50 ton 2 metre diameter missile, might call for stationing some
of them in strategically placed underground silos.
The Agni V was nevertheless designed specifically for
transport by road with its ‘canister-launch missile system’.
India has a no-first use policy. But the Agni V will
provide it a devastating second-strike capability.
The Agni V and the Ashvin supersonic inceptor missile
launched successfully in May 2016, are the latest illustrations of India’s indigenous
military manufacturing capabilities.
Combined with India’s nuclear weapons, it is mainly the
missile programme that is rearranging the strategic calculations vis a vis both
Pakistan and China.
Other joint-venture conventional systems include the Mach
2 Brahmos supersonic cruise missile developed with Russian collaboration. And
the Indo-Israeli long-range naval surface-to-air missile Barak 8.
India was debarred for years from accessing advanced
missile building technology by the fledgling Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).
This happened from
1988, after the first Prithvi short-range ballistic missiles were test-fired.
But the restrictions spurred the development of indigenous technology. And
despite its slow but consistent success over the decades, India maintained a
solid non-proliferation record throughout.
This has now ushered it into the presently 35 member MTCR,
in June 2016. India can now freely acquire and share missile technology with
other members.
The Chinese are eyeing the Agni V warily. They think it
has a range of 8,000 km, making it capable of targeting a much wider arc.
However, both China and Pakistan do have their versions
of ‘Iron Dome’ missile shields in place
to guard themselves at home. But, it is not inpenetrable. Neither are inceptor
missiles foolproof.
War theatres have shown interceptors can only stop some
of the incoming barrage, and often get confused between payloads and debris.
Then state-of-the-art US-made Patriot missiles with
Israel could only stop 10% of earlier generation Scud missiles lobbed by Iraq.
This was during the 1st Gulf War.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) too has
done well in the development of satellites and satellite launching technology. Some
of India’s tracking satellites are also capable of providing early warning on
enemy missile attacks.
There have been considerable advances on missile shields
since the 1st Gulf War. America has its THAAD’s. India has placed an
order for Russia’s most advanced S-400 Triumf air defence missile system.
It already has other Russian-made missile defence systems
in place to provide cover to six of its main cities, including Delhi. DRDO is working on a secret weapon- the Kilo
Ampere Linear Injector (Kali). It seeks to emit powerful
pulses of Relativistic Elecctron Beams (REB) to destroy the electronics of
incoming missiles, thereby stopping them in their tracks.
And so the critical cat and mouse technological one-upmanship
goes on.
For: SirfNews
(762 words)
December 18th, 2016
Gautam Mukherjee
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