LEMOA And Beyond: Slowly-Slowly-Catchee-Monkey…
Chinese commentators, punch drunk on being the world’s
second largest economy, promptly reacted negatively to India’s signing of the
LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement), with the US.
This agreement allows mutual access to military facilities for refuelling -
flashback: remember Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar’s secretive one-off okay to refuelling US planes, during the first Gulf
War against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq?
LEMOA also allows for provisioning and replenishment of
supplies, a kind of stevedoring exercise, all on a reimbursable basis.
LEMOA does not automatically allow for military bases to be
set up, and/or the stationing of troops, but these too can be authorised on a
case-to-case basis within the framework of this momentous agreement. So, it
looks innocuous, but is not. China is right on its significance.
The other two ‘foundational’ agreements, out of four,
typically signed between America and its defence partners, are now under
discussion. They are the CISMOA (Communications Interoperability & Security
Memorandum of Agreement), and the BECA (Basic Exchange & Cooperation
Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation). No time lines for their signing however
have been posted as yet.
However, not only did the Pentagon reiterate its support for
India’s entry into the NSG ( Nuclear Suppliers Group), after the recent Chinese
block, it mentioned India’s recent inclusion in the MTCR( Missile Technology
Control Regime), which does not count China as a member so far, as well.
That LEMOA coincided with the visit of US Secretary of State
Kerry to New Delhi, even as Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar is in
Washington interacting with US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter.
It comes after India was designated as a ‘Major Defence Partner’
during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US in June 2016.
And all of 12 years
after the first in the series of four enabling agreements, the GSOMIA (General
Security of Military Information Agreement), was signed by the Vajpayee/Dubya Bush
governments, in 2002.
The UPA did not move
forward at all on this strategic embrace during its decade in power. This
probably because it was caught up in the web of its own policy history on
Nehruvian non-alignment, Indira Gandhi’s time as a satellite of the USSR, and
pathological fear of Chinese umbrage, carried over into the Manmohan Singh
regime.
For, India, LEMOA, its own $150 billion defence shopping
list, inclusive of Make in India, over the next decade, and its Modi Doctrine
of ‘enlightened self-interest’, puts it in a unique position. It’s the biggest
defence purchase wish-list in the world.
Meanwhile, at this juncture of geo-political imperatives, a
military alliance with America acts as a great equaliser vis-a-vis China, and
gives India time to build up its independent military readiness.
Besides, America is not willing, any more than its NATO or
ANZAC allies, plus the emerging realignments in South/South –South East Asia,
to give China any kind of walkover in the world dominance stakes.
Instead China will have to eat a little crow, and re-evaluate
its own options. It must realise that it is deeply isolated, with only a couple
of unstable rogue states in the form of Pakistan and North Korea for company.
China’s old ‘string of pearls’ strategy of encirclement of
India via inducements to Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal,
the Maldives, Bhutan etc. now lies in tatters. And Xi Jinping’s grandoise ‘belt
and road’ initiative, figuratively taking off from the Old Silk Route, is viewed
with suspicion in every part of its immediate neighbourhood.
As for India’s tried and tested ties with Russia, there will
be no let up and many military initiatives, in parallel, are indeed, on the
anvil. But yes, an edge of competition has
already crept in, and should work altogether in India’s favour.
This has already been borne out in the nuclear power
context, not only with Russia, but also with France and the US all supplying
reactors and know-how.
We will, it is clear, cooperate with every other major
military power such as Britain and France on a bilateral basis, too; and this
includes Israel, Sweden, Italy; and press on with economic cooperation with many
in the G-20 and BRICS and other formations like ASEAN/APEC, including China.
China too is keen to advance economic cooperation with India,
in manufacturing, infrastructure-particularly in the Indian Railways, and
trade. It is for it to resolve its aggressive tendencies however, because India
is no longer willing to be intimidated, and has a number of other options.
For the moment, in keeping with its customary hubris, China said
the signing of LEMOA meant ‘troubles’. This implies, despite the enigmatic-speak,
not so much grief for itself, because it is loathe to admit that its posturing has
been challenged.
No, it is troubles for India that is being threatened. India
is militarily ill-equipped and much poorer, it is true. But, unlike 1962, it is
inconveniently nuclear weaponised.
The threat of late therefore, is of a multi-front
conventional war, with Pakistan and China attacking in tandem. India does not
have the wherewithal to fight this to win on its own currently, but with a
little help from America, it can, and will.
Besides, this ‘troubles’ remark came, after the Chinese
smirk on blocking our NSG bid. Just as other Chinese commentators in a security
establishment think-tank growled, when India positioned its supersonic Brahmos
missiles, on its North Eastern border areas.
Some also grumbled when India positioned over 100 tanks in
Ladakh, not so long ago.
And again, when India raised the occupation/genocide/oppression,
by the Pakistani state in POK/Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan.
There goes the CPEC, Beijing must be thinking, already being
criticised by the jailed Baba Jan’s followers in Gilgit-Baltistan and PoK; and
all those tonnes of precious minerals. And so, China allowed that it might ‘intervene’
in Balochistan too.
China is most impressed with its own sizeable, largely
copied from old US stock, military. It wants the world to fear its conventional
and nuclear might.
But then, China makes no secret of wanting to control half
the world. Never mind what Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, even Hong Kong
and Tibet, others, in South /South-East
Asia, and the Asia-Pacific, think.
And never mind what the International Court of Justice at
the Hague has to say too. China wants the South China Sea for itself, and does
not recognise the Hague ruling against it. It has been bumptiously issuing
warnings to all and sundry within and without its range.
It wants to dominate the Indian Ocean too, and has been patrolling
it mightily in recent years.
China’s mandarin notions on diplomacy also emboldens it to ignore
the wishes of other members of the UNSC, such as Russia, Britain, and France,
thinking being factory to 40% of the world’s manufactured goods is enough
leverage.
It has been trying, preposterously, from before President Xi
Jinping’s time, to buy-off America, purchasing its treasury bonds in trillions,
while, sotto voce, threatening monetary destabilisation!
It particularly wanted to take advantage of America’s
economic troubles post 2008, by upgrading its claims, if not the balance of
payments, while attempting to cede a sphere of influence to it. Take the other
half of the world, China seemed to say: meaning the Atlantic, the
Mediterranean, the North Sea etc..
That the ancient, but newly prosperous Chinese, do not
understand the implications of trying to parley, on the basis of riches
acquired thanks to the Nixon-Kissinger tilt against the USSR, with the world’s
most technologically advanced military power; seems amply clear.
America, the fact the Chinese try to ignore, is sized at 17
times greater than the next military establishment in line! So, for India, it’s
a good eiderdown to get under, while continuing to deal fairly with the rest of
the world.
For: The Sunday Guardian
(1,277 words)
August 30th, 2016
Gautam Mukherjee
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