Second Anniversary BLUES

Second Anniversary BLUES

On Sunday the 15^th,  a day before the 2^nd anniversary of the NDA’s thumping win,  the social media space was treated to pictures of prime minister Narendra Modi wheeling his nonagerian mother around the pathways of the 7RCR garden.

They show him pointing out the flowers and shrubs, sitting with mum on bench, being tenderly attentive.  But what was the broader point being made?

Modi, the quintessential solitary bird, and not just amongst close relatives, tweeted that mother was leaving for Gujarat shortly, having made her very first visit to 7RCR.  

Endearing indubitably, but was Modi actually pointing fingers at the embattled Sonia Gandhi and family, living large at government expense, while fighting multiple corruption charges?

On the 16^th, the day the extent of the landslide victory from two years ago was made known, also came exit poll forecasts that the BJP and its allies was likely to win a majority in Assam.

If this proves true on the 19^th , it will certainly add zest to the 2^nd anniversary celebrations, coming after the two resounding losses in Bihar and Delhi.

But besides this timely morale booster from the North East, the report card after 24 months is not particularly encouraging.

The vikas plank that won the day, and is still being vigorously promoted, is both cracked and fractured. There are many initiatives, mainly long term infrastructure moves in power, roads and the railways, that may well yield excellent results in time.

But the economy as a whole is unmoved; business, industry, exports, jobs, the rural economy, construction, banking- all are subdued, with no second generation reforms initiated to kick-start it.

This government has squarely failed to address the short to medium term recovery, the somewhat dubious 7.5% GDP growth rate, meant to be the best in the world, notwithstanding.

Modi’s personal popularity and performance rating are still very high, but 21 out of his 36 ministers are found wanting. Inexperience would be the obvious conclusion, given that many in the cabinet and council of ministers are first-timers.

But then Modi pointedly excluded many of the experienced stalwarts from the Vajpayee administration, who don’t particularly like his ascendancy.

Nevertheless, if the GST Bill and the Land Bill amendments that could add percentage points to the GDP, have come a cropper, it is not so much the very real internal dissidence, as lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha that is to blame.

The trouble is, the truncated Congress could not afford to be reasonable if it wanted to avoid political oblivion. But now, even that belligerence may not save it. The exit polls for four states and a union territory all point towards an end game and a post-Congress future. And these death throes in the founding firm, may prove to be Modi’s trump card going forward!

Congress has also largely lost its ability to obstruct legislation in the Rajya Sabha, after a reduction in its bench strength.  With no national presence anymore, and having opposed the TMC and AIADMK in these elections just concluded, it is unlikely to win wider support from them,  and possibly others, in future. If there is an anti-BJP coalition formed later, Congress now will certainly not lead it.

Meanwhile, only the second rung bills have got through. Amongst them are the Aadhar Bill, good at targeting subsidies etc., the Real Estate Bill, which will greatly help new home buyers, and the Bankruptcy Code, that will put some muscle into lenders and creditors to help themselves.

The first bold administrative reform, the deregulation of diesel prices, lost some of its public approval, because the government did not pass on a good chunk of the benefits to the public.  However, the massive diesel subsidies were indeed abolished.

Other plusses include FDI, which has reached unprecedented levels, and the hard currency reserves are also at an all-time high. The passage of OROP after 40 years in the works, and the advent of the 7^th Pay Commission should set off a mini consumer boom via the armed forces and the bureaucracy.

There are many other administrative improvements, in ease of doing business, self-attestation of documents, multiple cuts of red tape. The push to open bank accounts for the unbanked, reduction of fraud in all subsidy administration, and indeed a drastic reduction in high level corruption all around. 

The abuse of their charters by certain foreign funded NGOs, posing security and other threats, has been curbed. ‘Coating’ subsidised Urea has prevented it from being put to non-fertilizer use.  

Insurgency and Maoist activity, because of crimps put on their funding,   has reduced. The advent of small banks and payment banks to come, will help promote micro-lending to financially weak entrepreneurs and general convenience for the underdog.

However the government has failed to get a say in the appointment of judges, and backed away meekly from a confrontation thereafter.

With a cabinet reshuffle, long awaited, and greater dynamism, the Modi administration should do much better in its second half. This is crucial if it is to fulfill the very high expectations it has provoked, and if it wants to win another term in 2019.

For:  The Quint

(853 words)

May 16^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee