Cement Mixer Politics
The earlier narrative of a phoenix-like Congress rising from
the ashes under the leadership of a mysteriously rejuvenated vice president
Rahul Gandhi, is beginning to fall apart
- both inside parliament and outside.
For a while, it looked very good for the disruptive and
boorish avatar of Congress, culminating in its resounding victory, in consort
with its camp followers, and the JD(U)-RLD combine in Bihar.
Though Delhi was also thoroughly lost to the BJP, it was worse
for the Congress to be completely wiped out where it had ruled for three
consecutive terms. Still, Rahul Gandhi’s Congress adopted much of its
disruptive style from the NGO/activist politics of the AAP.
Almost single-handedly, despite being just 44/45 seats
strong in the Lok Sabha, and some 68 in the Rajya Sabha, Congress managed to
trash both the monsoon and winter sessions of parliament, and paralyse the
government’s legislative agenda.
Large and important bills like the GST, the Land Bill, the
Bankruptcy Law, the Labour Law, the Real Estate Bill and so on, are all pending.
And they will stay marooned, unless the government finds a way to coerce,
rather than persuade, the Congress into cooperation. This can happen if it is
punished for its negative politics in forthcoming assembly elections.
But in parliament, it is made difficult by the reckoning
that if the Modi government succeeds in being reformist, Congress will find it
very difficult to return to power.
Recently, the Left and Congress, buoyant from its many
political guerrilla style attacks on the government, thought they might just
have it on the ropes. This, after the suicide of an OBC post-graduate student
at Hyderabad, followed quickly by separatist, anti-government, anti-Hindu offensives
at JNU and Jadavpur universities.
But neither opposition parties were actually prepared for
the sudden counter-attack. The home ministry and the police arrested the
students, applying the archaic British era sedition law. But, over the top or
not, it was also used liberally by the UPA in its time.
Coincidentally, various senior Congress leaders have become
enmeshed in other legal proceedings. The mother-son leadership of the Congress
is out on bail in the National Herald case. Rahul Gandhi by himself, is also
facing a charge of sedition. Voluble Congress
general secretary Digvijay Singh is out on bail for a recruitment scam case
dating back from his time as chief minister in Madhya Pradesh.
Former union minister P Chidambaram, it is now revealed,
allegedly rewrote an affidavit to conceal that terrorist Ishrat Jahan, killed
in a legitimate police encounter in Gujarat, was a known LeT operative. He
apparently did this, bypassing then home secretary GK Pillai. The government is
now going into the details of the case to determine Chidambaram’s culpability
in the matter, and to provide possible relief and retribution to the others
affected.
In addition, the ED (Enforcement Directorate) has also
discovered that Chidambaram’s son, Karti, amassed huge wealth and property in
various parts of the world, in the period 2006-2014, when P Chidambaram was a
union minister. This has become an electoral issue in Tamil Nadu.
So in the current budget session, used as the Congress/Left have
become, to raising slogans, rushing to the well, and refusing to allow any
business from being conducted, they were overtaken and outshouted by the AIADMK.
The southern party is loudly demanding immediate action against Karti
Chidambaram in the Aircel-Maxis scam. And this, vigorously enough to shut down
both houses of parliament on the 1st of March.
The AIADMK demand has drowned out the gratuitous Congress clamour
for a privilege motion against HRD minister Smriti Irani. Besides, the
government plans to move its own counter-privilege motion against Jyotiraditya Scindia, to trade charges on who ‘misled’ the
house.
Both sides will now have to wait and see how AIADMK is
served, but the NDA must be pleased, particularly since Congress has teamed up
again with DMK in Tamil Nadu.
With the government now determined to give as good as it
gets, the odds are beginning to even. Another instance of returning the favour
of Rahul Gandhi’s oft-repeated ‘suit-boot’ jibe came almost providentially.
State BJP men were able to point out Congress run Karnataka chief minister
Siddaramiah’s Rs. 70 lakh diamond encrusted Hublot watch. So much so, he was forced
to donate it to the state treasury.
The fall of the Congress government in Arunachal Pradesh due
to defection in its ranks, and the possibility of a BJP plus win there in fresh
elections, is also evidence of a more aggressive stance, reminiscent of former prime minister Indira Gandhi.
As of the 29th of February however, the NDA may
have gone in for a real and strategic shift to the left, with emphasis on
measures for rural India, the farmers, the poor, poor women, job skilling etc..
Many are hailing it as the ‘Jai Kisan’ budget, echoing former prime minister
Lal Bahadur Shastri’s famous slogan.
If this stance is amplified going forward, it won’t be easy
for the opposition, even as new rounds of assembly elections come into view, to
accuse this government of being anti-poor.
And by cleaving to the prudence of upholding the fiscal
deficit targets unchanged at 3.5% for FY17, the government has also pleased most
conservative economic observers, here, abroad, and in the RBI.
An interest rate cut therefore may shortly be in the works,
provided there is no spike in inflation. This might just stimulate the beginning
of a fresh investment cycle in private business and industry, long awaited over
the 21 months of this government’s tenure.
If, through both substantive measures and perception shifts,
the government begins, more and more, to resemble the UPA however, it should still
remain free of scams and high-level corruption.
However, for those who had hoped for Thatcherite
privatisation, at least of badly done by PSU banking, for example, or
Reaganesque tax cuts and government downsizing, the Modi government is clearly
not going to oblige.
It is apparently committed to an incremental and cautious
growth of the Nehruvian mixed economy. It will not risk its political capital
with bold structural reform and open-market capitalism.
So, as Modi reveals
his essentially nationalist philosophy, the BJP is deliberately moving towards
a presumed larger, centre-left constituency, carved out perhaps from defectors
from various dynastic regional parties and the Congress. Thankfully, it has
retained its strong commitment towards building up the Indian Railways, roads,
highways, electricity, and ports, rivers, canals, nuclear/solar energy, defence
and other manufacturing, at the same time.
Whether this development promoting party with a pro-poor
beating heart will produce more votes, remains to be seen. For now, it may be the guerrillas who’ve been ambushed by the
state.
For: The Pioneer
(1,104 words)
March 1st, 2016
Gautam Mukherjee
No comments:
Post a Comment