Contemplating The Worldview Of The Fool On The Hill

Contemplating The Worldview Of The Fool On The Hill

The most serious position to adopt in politics, around the world, is the Centre. Farid Zakaria made this point without debate, on CNN recently. It was during his magazine programme Farid Zakaria GPS. He held up the centrist and highly successful presidency of Bill Clinton, both politically and economically, as an illustration.  This, of course, in the context of the run-up towards the forthcoming  American presidential elections in 2016.

This is historically true enough, though somewhat wondrous now, when America is in dizzy trillions of dollars in debt, most famously illustrated by the wrangle and brinkmanship between President Obama, his fellow Democrats on one side, and the Republican Congress on the other, over the ‘debt ceiling’, not so long ago.

Democrat Clinton created over 21 million new jobs during his tenure, raised the GDP significantly, and took a budgetary deficit of 4.7% in 1992 and turned it into 2.6% surplus by 1997!  

This is, of course, most creditable, though because of the politics of continuity he adopted, he cannot in fairness be given the full credit for it. Clinton was lucky too, with record low oil prices; 1999 prices were a mere $10 a barrel, and ‘gasoline’ sold at American pumps at 95 cents for a gallon.

Centrist Clinton famously appointed and supported Republican Alan Greenspan to manage interest rates with great success as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Greenspan first came to be Fed Chairman in 1987, under  the reformist and anti-big government and high taxation President Ronald Reagan.  And he left after a nearly unprecedented five consecutive terms, during which the American economy boomed for two decades straight. 

Greenspan served without interruption under Presidents Reagan, George H.W.Bush, Clinton, and finally George W Bush - handing over to Ben Bernanke in January 2006.

Things have not been nearly so good for the US and the world since. And in hindsight, many of Greenspan’s monetarist and ‘easy money’ nostrums are being held responsible for the borrow and spend and speculative excesses. But the point, at the beginning and now, was that Clinton’s centrist policies undeniably paid off.

In India, the successive public opinion polls increasingly suggest a landslide victory in the Bihar Assembly elections for the NDA alliance, come October/November this year. One just has to wonder why.

NaMo’s development plank is certainly all-inclusive without being denominational, and decidedly centrist.

Though Nitish Kumar echoes many of the developmental themes, the others in his ‘Grand Alliance’ against Modi and the NDA prefer far left rhetoric. They ostensibly champion the poor and underprivileged, but obliquely and insistently refer to the politics of grievance, caste, creed, and religion.

If this latest Zee News/Janata Ka Mood poll findings, conducted over all 243 constituencies, and using a large sampling of those polled in each, comes to pass; at a minimum, the sturdy old formulas and assumptions will have failed.

And, if that happens, the ‘Grand Alliance’ will have to retreat from the political stage in shambles. The rising challenge to the Modi administration over the past months after the NDA defeat in Delhi will quickly disintegrate. And this will leave  Modi freer to proceed with greater resolve than in the 15-17 months of his rule thus far. 

Some 41.2% of Bihari Muslim voters, per those polled, are seriously contemplating voting for the NDA alliance led by prime minister Narendra Modi. Over 47% of Yadavs are likely to do likewise. The Paswan/Manjhi components of the NDA are set to mop up a large share of the Dalit and Mahadalit votes, at over 50%! The NDA is set to win 140 of 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, and another 33 will be closely contested, per the poll.

Is Modi’s ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas’  accused of being an empty slogan by the opposition, sustaining yet, and getting through in Bihar, even after 16 months,  and again?

Modi’s personal popularity ratings also continue to be impressively high, not only in Bihar but nationally; according to a Mint/Instavaani poll in August, and yet another Pew poll, this, in September 2015.

Is this also, an approval for the centrist approach of Narendra Modi personally, and that of his government in general? The opposition charge is otherwise and accuses this government of communal polarisation and saffronisation of institutions and national narratives, but public perception seems to debunk this shrill propaganda, and appears to be with Modi.

In America meanwhile, flamboyant businessman cum presidential aspirant Donald Trump, is suggesting the silent majority is reacting to the overly liberal policies of the Obama administration.

And whether it is Trump’s rants against illegal immigrants from Mexico, some see as narrow minded zenophobia, offensive to the spirit of  America, or his blunt, muscular delivery on all matters, what is it that is resonating with the public? Trump is undeniably the current front-runner amongst a sizeable roster of Republican candidates.

Trump’s politics may well be to the Right of the GOP in general, but is the American public too, wanting to return, as far as possible, towards the Centre?

They, the American people, do not want to particularly address the feminist radicalism of gender politics after electing a man of colour to two terms in office. So they seem sceptical about the spin and plausible sounding fast-talk emanating from  both former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, front-running but wobbly in the polls Democrat; and former controversial Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, amongst the dozen or so Republican hopefuls, the only woman.

Donald Trump surging ahead in opinion polls might just be suggesting this, and endorsing his can-do brand of Reaganesque politics instead. Trump wants to make America great again, militarily and economically, and the public wants him to do it. Is this centrist? May be.

Centrism may also explain the holding off at the US Federal Reserve Bank. Chairman Janet Yellen decided not to raise interest rates once again recently. This was probably to avoid international financial and stock market turmoil.

A rate hike, which some see as both warranted and overdue, would signal a change of policy. In anticipation of further hikes in series later, this might lead to a sharply strengthening dollar. But Ms. Yellen, and the business community in America would dearly like to see a 2% inflation rate arrive first!

This would signal that all the thousands of  billions of dollars spent on quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, plus the nearly zero rate of interest, has, in fact managed to lift economic activity enough to take and withstand a series of, say, 0.25% rate hikes going forward.

In the 2004-2006 period, America and the Fed under Greenspan hiked rates 17 times  per  CNN’s Richard Quest, but afterwards, then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke cut rates to near zero once again. He was forced to do so  to weather the financial/economic crises of 2007/2008. And there the interest rates have remained, unchanged, ever since.

This concern expressed and reiterated by Yellen, for how an American rate hike may impact the international arena, now that America is ostensibly growing again, including many of America’s trading partners, is the new ground reality for the moderate and cautious.

Not only would America’s recovery be threatened if its buyers couldn’t afford to buy its offerings, but the cascading effect would aggravate the global pain of  world trade, already much slowed by the economic and financial difficulties in Europe, China, amongst the oil and commodity producing nations, and all those interdependent on all of the above.

Sir Paul McCartney wrote and released Fool On The Hill  way back in 1967, but its enigmatic message of a wisdom that people cannot understand and don’t care to heed, is as valid today, as it was when the young McCartney, then a Beatle, first sang it.

Where do we go from here? The operative word, surprisingly perhaps, is “We” and not “Where”. Our national and global interdependence is immense and growing.

Narendra Modi and Indian politics may be changing willy-nilly, and sincerely, in terms of this bracketing of togetherness versus the forces of polarity and difference. Modi could well be prime minister for a decade if he wins Bihar.

And we might also cast a passing thought about how Donald Trump could well become the next president of America. This, not because he is a hatemongering, loud-mouth, right-wing looney, as is being depicted in some quarters; but because his candidature, salience, and possible eventual victory could signal a return to the centre for American politics.

So then,  this is not the position of the joker in the pack, ladies and gentlemen, despite the crazy hair, but the custodian of the ‘most serious position’, as Zakaria put it. Appearances, can sometimes be deceptive.

 (1,441 words)

September 20^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee