GHATOTKACHSERIESIII

Saturday, November 26, 2022

The Left Book Of Who Can You Kiss Hug Genuflect To That Has Ensnared Sudha Murthy In Its Silken Web

Both affection and reverence have a politically correct aspect in the shifting sands of Indian political etiquette. They also have a tendency to be blown out of proportion. When prominent citizens of great national, and now international, influence indicate a symbolic shift in their political orientation, it gets the twitter birds in a tizz.

When astute people claim they didn’t know whom they were showing respect to, or indeed what they stood for, it does seem a little precious. Respecting age does not mean one goes down the road touching every old person’s feet.

The message as understood, is therefore that the left leaning socialism oriented parties are done for in India, except in Kerala and West Bengal, of course. Its top down munificent welfarism now for New India, and modernise, modernise, modernise. The booming economy can raise all boats. Yes, and daub everything with a bracing slather of saffron for one’s soul.

In Britain, Sudha Murthy’s son-in-law is at the head of the Tory Party and government. If he can repair the economy and win for the Conservatives in 2024, he will be the great rescuer on par with his distant predecessor, one Winston Churchill.

It is therefore a good time to turn the tiller slightly, if not full right, for the Murthys. However, at present, if the idea is to put a lid on controversy, then vagueness of this order from sharp cookies making I-did-not-know statements, is not out of place.

The Bharatiya Nari has it tough, be it bedecked in bindi, hijab, leotard, swimsuit, pantsuit, sari, or indeed not very much. Long have we lived simultaneously in several centuries, let alone decades of changing manners and mores. Kissing, hugging, genuflecting, has both the innocence of a gesture, and immense meaning. We are nothing if not both ancient and profound with a little tarka of crassness.

Touching of feet, (or knees, for the arthritic), in reverence, is a big deal. Hindus have traditionally done it for ages to take the blessings of their elders, holy men, gurus, mentors, benefactors, teachers, all objects of respect and worship.

Of course, saying something by way of the famous sound-byte can really set the cat amongst the pigeons. But quite often the communication does not need to be verbal.

Remember popular actor Sanjay Dutt touching the feet of Balasaheb Thackeray for getting him out of jail when the Congress party ruled at the centre? It even had father Sunil Dutt as one of its prominent leaders in Mumbai. But try as Senior Dutt did, he could not help his son. It was Thackeray who used his influence on Sanjay Dutt’s behalf, and not Sonia Gandhi. Why? Perhaps it was because the Bombay riots of 1993 had wheels within wheels, and some of them had Congress Party markings. Still, we now know that Sanjay Dutt was no terrorist, as he was absolved by the TADA courts, but served inordinate amounts of jail time for violation of the Arms Act.

Years ago, actress Padmini Kolhapure got into a controversy for pecking the then Prince Charles on the cheek in a Mumbai movie-set as the flash bulbs popped. The flash bulbs didn’t actually pop in 1980, because they acquired reasonable new technology for photographic flashes in the 1960s even before the digital era.

Likewise, Richard Gere, a Hollywood biggie of the time, outraged the sense of Indian public modesty for planting one on actress Shilpa Shetty accompanied by a virile hug. She, poor thing, was slapped with obscenity charges fifteen years ago, and recently was absolved of them, because, presumably, Gere wasn’t so near to hand. But then the lissome[Gautam Mu1] Shetty may have a karmic connection to this sort of thing, given her husband’s more recent brush with the law on pornographic productions allegedly conducted by him.

But now it is the turn of the British prime minister’s mother-in-law to land in the proverbial hot water. This new description has overtaken her own status as an author/millionaire philanthropist, and that of the Murthy duos immense pelf, stature and success as founders of IT giant Infosys.

No, grandmother Sudha Murthy did not kiss the venerable Sambhaji Rao Bhide, activist leader of the Shiv Pratishthan and erstwhile of the RSS. Bhide apparently wanted Murthy to fund a golden throne for Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj’s Raigad Fort and demanded a meeting with her in Sangli. It is not known if Bhide secured any such commitment from Murthy.

Murthy was actually visiting to promote some of her books translated into Marathi, and also to pray for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the famed Sindhudurg temple in the district.

Murthy was persuaded to interrupt her commentary and come out of her lecture venue and meet Bhide who had turned up to her promotional event uninvited, accompanied by a large number of followers. The police in attendance also thought it best that Sudha Murthy meet Bhide to avert any untoward situation from bruised egos.

Murthy went one up on the occasion, and mollified the crowd by allegedly bowing and touching the feet of the sparely built but white-whiskered and bearded leader.

This apparently set off the powder keg of leftist intolerance. A video or two of the incident soon went viral. They, meaning the liberal-left cabal, feared the worst, because she also did it once before recently, when she touched the feet of Mysuru royalty in the person of Promada Devi Wadeyar.

Bhide is gleefully described by the Left as a ‘bigot’. The leftist media never fails to record his latest ‘outrage’ when Bhide refused to meet a female journalist who was not wearing a bindi. This also earned him a charge from the Maharashtra Women’s Commission. Bhide said Bharat Mata is not a widow and every woman who represents her shakti should wear a bindi. It is not known if this was also the gist of his explanation to the Commission.

There is further controversy about Bhide. That he instigated a stone pelting riot at the Bhima-Koregaon clashes, and was booked for it by the police. However, nothing much came of his so-called controversies. Somehow, that the allegations against Bhide do not stick, doesn’t stop his leftish detractors from maligning his image. What is true however, that even as a fairly obscure Hindutva activist, Bhide does have access to Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.

The truth is that Sambhaji Rao Bhide is fairly common or garden. Nothing terribly sinister attaches to his persona.

For the Murthys, who have dined out for decades as intellectual lefties, even as the millions in profits piled up, to be found cosying up to a mustachioed Hindutva ideologue is a dagger to the heart for some. People already on the skids, ( except in Kerala and West Bengal), and on the political ropes all over the country.

(1,131 words)

November 11^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

[Gautam Mu1]

The Democrat Showing At Mid Term Gives President Biden Strength

President Joe Biden, who turns 80 this month, will host the wedding of his granddaughter, son Hunter Biden’s daughter, on the South Lawns of the White House. He has little to worry about as he has been gifted a better showing at the mid-term elections than any Democrat president in the last forty years.

Democrat President Obama lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives at mid-term, but went on to win a second term handily after eliminating Osama Bin Laden hiding in Pakistan.

The Americans love to elect a militarily inclined president. Republican George W Bush who scraped a win using his Republican family contacts in the Supreme Court won his second term convincingly after attacking Afghanistan and Iraq post 9/11. He was in trouble the first time around for the infamous hanging chads controversy, against Democrat Al Gore (who was President Bill Clinton’s vice president),

Did President Biden, who still has low approval ratings, win the mid-term elections because of his bold if proxy prosecution of the Ukraine War? And because Russia has been faltering?

The Democrats still retain a slim majority in Congress (The House of Representatives), and a slimmer majority in the Senate, with 50 Democrat seats to 49 Republican ones. The Vice President Kamala Harris holds a casting vote if it turns 50-50. Elections to 30 Governors, effectively the CEO of those states across the country are ongoing. How many will stay with the Democrats?

So, while greater consultations with Republicans may take place as indicated by the US president, he does not have to concede any legislative space to his rivals except in consensus areas. By popular perception and narrow fact, the Democrats won the mid-term elections.

The Republicans on their part are not in a strong position to block legislation. The votes might be narrow going forward, but the Democrats have retained their advantage in both houses.

One of the things that have hurt the Republican Party is its revanchist support to the anti-abortion judgements that are resented by pro-choicer young women all over America. The Democrat Party is well regarded for its stance on the matter, and Biden has threatened that he will use his presidential veto should any country-wide legislative abortion ban be attempted by the Republicans.

Is the war in Ukraine, which is putting strains on the American economy by way of gas prices and inflation one of the other pressure points? If so, how did the Democrats pass unhurt? Is it because the polity has become so polarised that Democrats will support a Democrat administration wrong or right?

Is it significant that President Putin waited till after the election results of November 8^th, before announcing the Russian withdrawal from Kherson? Could it be that Biden’s war strategy in Ukraine is working, expensive as it is in men and materials? Is Biden saying so at the G20 Summit in Bali? Could Russia end up pushed out of the Donbas region after claiming it as part of Russia after a hastily conducted referendum?

An incumbent president of America does not usually suffer a lack of support when he is prosecuting a war abroad, even a proxy war, like the one in Ukraine.

In the case of President Biden, the enormously powerful military-industrial complex, is four-square behind him. It is selling armaments worth billions to the Europeans and Zelenskyy’s much destroyed Ukraine, and does not want the war to end anytime soon.

In President Biden’s recent face-to-face talks with President Xi Jinping at Bali on the side-lines of the G-20 Summit, both leaders came to the table with important domestic political wins under their belt. President Biden has made it clear before undertaking his overseas trip that he did not plan to offer any concessions to China. This includes, most tellingly, the ban of semiconductor machinery and know-how sales to China.

Biden is likely to tell Xi that America, EU, Britain, the NATO complex and the Western Alliance is winning the war in Ukraine against Chinese ally Russia. He might suggest that Xi Jinping might reconsider his options. He will continue to be ambiguous on what the US will do in the event China attacks Taiwan.

President Xi Jinping could, of course, maintain that the Russia’s retreats are tactical, and the war in Ukraine far from finished in Ukraine’s favour. But Russia is running out of conventional arms and ammunition, and is buying in from both North Korea and Iran. It has also lost a lot of soldiers and is pushing in replacements, as many as 80,000 recently.

The same message on Russia weakening, in veiled terms, could be delivered by the US to India. But India has moved from its studied neutrality to advocating a negotiated settlement and cessation of hostilities as early as possible for some time. Prime Minister Modi will reiterate his stance that this is not an era for war.

India’s own gains from cheaper Russian oil purchased in a Rupee-Ruble trade is acknowledged as non-negotiable by the US. It has made Russia India’s biggest oil importation partner, replacing all the countries in West Asia including Saudi Arabia.

The ongoing relationship with Russian arms manufacturers and joint venture military cooperation with Russia must also continue. However, greater overtures and ongoing cooperation with the US, France, Britain, Israel, Japan and other nations such as Brazil are proceeding alongside. It is clear, in the long run, with aatmanirbhar military manufacturing and diversification, India’s over 50% dependence on the Russian military connection will reduce a great deal. This is necessary also because of the spare parts difficulties and delayed deliveries that are beginning to occur as a consequence of the Russo-Ukranian war.

The elevation to the G 7 big table for India, that could become G8 or G9 soon, owing to its growing economic heft, the scale of its operations, may come soon. This will be inclusion, not as a guest, but as a full-fledged member. It is likely to occur rather sooner than India’s inclusion in the UNSC, given the vetoes of the five permanent members.

This, even as India assumes the presidency of the G20 from December 1^st, 2022 from Indonesia. It will be handing over the baton in 2024 to Brazil. All the three, for the moment, are developing countries, but India is clearly pulling ahead into a league of the rich countries club. This despite its very modest per capita income. It is in a unique position to leverage its population size to offer digital highways to the world, the biggest, thanks to the universal use of Aadhar. Prime Minister Modi has been clear, stump speech style, in pointing out the large list of achievements that puts India at the top of the global rankings. There are many avenues for worthwhile bilateral cooperation with the G20 countries and beyond, and India has not been shy about publicising its credentials this time.

India is also at the helm of the SCO for the next year, a forum that was earlier dominated by China almost exclusively.

In both cases, India is proceeding without signalling business as usual with China while it menaces India on its borders. China has long wanted the border situation compartmentalised, though India has said no.

Yet, as is the case with many other countries unable to shake of the Chinese tentacles in their supply chains, India’s trade with China, despite bans in several areas, has grown to $ 100 billion, largely in China’s favour. But India is now projecting itself as an alternative to China.

Many developments are expected, while India hosts over 50 separate meetings and conclaves all over India over the next year. Most notably, it will be the year when India will interact substantially by way of trade, collaboration and commerce with the G7 countries with the exception of China. Germany, till lately very close to China, is saying Asia is no longer just China.

In addition, India will also, in bilateral pacts and FTAs, cooperate with the other 13 members of G 20 and many other guest entities.

However, India will not lead the so-called Global South in a guild of the like-minded to extract concessions from the rich countries. This sort of neo-non-alignment no longer works for a country that itself is likely to grow its economy to $ 5 trillion by 2025, and become the 3^rd largest major economy by 2028 or 2030. India will then have a GDP in the region of $ 8 to 10 trillion.

America and the Biden administration will facilitate India’s glide path even as it realises there is great bipartisan consensus and support within America for this course of action.

(1,437 words)

November 15^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

Witness The Results Of 7 Recent Assembly Byelections - BJP Is Holding Its Own

Assembly byepolls conducted in the closing months of 2022 are meant to show which way the electoral winds are blowing. This, not only for the various assembly elections due to take place in 2022 and 2023, but also the general election in 2024.

The BJP is not, it seems, showing signs of anti-incumbency as the conventional political punditry would have it. It is entirely possible it will win handsomely in most of the assemblies coming up, and garner a third consecutive term for itself with a majority in parliament in 2024. This, of course, could substantially alter the ground realities as well as the outdated and partisan ideology that has long animated Indian politics to its detriment. It will be seen as conclusive proof that the country and its voters are committed to the BJP vision of a New India and a level playing field for all its people.

The popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a pan India vote-getter remains unparalleled after eight completed years at the helm. The Opposition is unable to find the enthusiasm to submerge its differences as yet and come together. This cannot pose a serious challenge to the ruling party despite its exclusion in regional pockets of the country, and as yet much of the South. Will this change at all in the remaining two years to 2024?

Not unless there are dramatic and highly damaging Black Swan developments that impact the scene either internationally or domestically. The Ukraine war is indeed very expensive, and is putting enormous strain on the Western European economies and the NATO alliance. It is no doubt putting considerable pressure on Russia too, both in terms of the conduct of the war, and the sanctions it is facing. But Russia has coped rather better than the West so far. Its relationship with India remains very good.

It is, no doubt a very uncertain world, occasioned by the Covid pandemic and the shifting alignments caused by the Russo-Ukranian war. More and more countries are beginning to act out of national self-interest, rather than the dictates of formal alliances. This even as the war drags on, with no end in sight, after almost a year.

Netherlands has removed all sanctions on Russia on a unilateral basis. Germany is reiterating its commitment to China, even as the United States and others in the EU are trying to get away from over dependence on Chinese supply chains, and its tendency to aggressively leverage its position globally.

India has been adroit in navigating these choppy waters, and has managed to keep its dependence on foreign fuel from overly impacting its domestic economy. It has swiftly replaced all other sources of more expensive oil with that from Russia. It has also been steadfast in its neutrality with regard to Russia in the ongoing war.

The Indian economy has revived quite quickly after Covid, and despite headwinds of imported inflation, is the fastest growing major economy in the world.

Here at home, even as the Prime Minister has been busy campaigning in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, BJP has won four out of the seven multi-state assembly byelections in November 2022. It has retained all three BJP seats previously held and added a new one.

It also gave a reasonably close contest in the three seats it lost to three separate parties, in three different states. This probably bodes well for the forthcoming Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat assemblies, coming up before the close of the year. Both states have incumbent BJP governments that are looking for a new term in office.

In Gujarat, BJP has been in power continuously for 27 years, no mean feat, and Himachal Pradesh, known for switching horses in each five-year contest, may well retain the BJP government this time around.

Uddhav Thackeray’s rump Shiv Sena has managed to win the Andheri (East) assembly seat, and claimed, on the strength of it, the people’s support is still with it. TRS in Telangana won the ‘high-stakes’ Munugode seat by over 10,000 votes, despite feeling the pressure from an advancing BJP in the state. In Bihar, the RJD led to all intents and purposes by Tejaswi Yadav, with party supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav ailing and mired in legal confinement, hung on to the Mokama seat. However, the RJD could not unseat the BJP in Gopalganj.

Significantly, notwithstanding the religion and caste-sensitive Bihar election scenario, Gopalganj was won by a Vaishya candidate fielded by the BJP, in what is largely seen as a Muslim-Yadav landscape.

The hotly contested Odisha win in Dhamnagar by the BJP shows the road ahead after the Navin Patnaik era draws to a close.

In UP, the BJP handily won the Gola Gokarnath seat defeating its SP rival by over 34,000 votes.

In Haryana, it won the Adampur seat, long held by members of the Bhajan Lal family, since 1968. This, particularly after Kuldip Bishnoi defected from the Congress to the BJP. It has been won by his son, but this time on a BJP ticket.

The fact that these assembly byepolls were held in a number of geographically dispersed states, without the BJP losing ground, must be a source of frustration to the opposition.

Anti-incumbency is based generally on disenchantment with the work done or lack of it by the incumbent and his party, accusations of corruption, high-handedness, and other such factors. When they fail to operate to unseat the sitting MLA, meritorious as he may be, it points to a new phenomenon in Indian politics. It is the vision of the prime minister and the overall development of the country under BJP rule since 2014 that is playing a part, even in assembly byepolls. This is a departure from mostly emphasis on local issues typically, and the effect of money in political campaigns.

Another aspect is BJP’s skill in terms of ‘social engineering’, and its formidable booth level management, evident in both the Gopalganj and Adampur seat wins.

The TINA factor is also playing a part. The effect of KCR from the TRS projecting national ambitions has failed to take off. The political dividend from Rahul Gandhi’s container-supported padayatra is unclear. Mamata Banerjee remains boxed into West Bengal, and MK Stalin is confined to Tamil Nadu. Maharashtra shifting to the Shinde led Shiv Sena and the Fadnavis anchored BJP, has delivered a vital blow to Sharad Pawar as the elder statesman of opposition unity. The image of the AAP has suffered from multiple corruption charges and bad governance in Delhi and Punjab, despite immense propaganda campaigns via advertisements in print and the electronic media.

A recent India TV-Matrize opinion poll predicted a nearly two-third victory for BJP (119 out of 182 seats), in Gujarat. It is an improvement in its grip since 2017. It is also slated to win comfortably in Himachal Pradesh, bagging 41 seats out of 68, to its 44 in 2017.

This is what happens when the flaws and shortfalls in BJP administration are overlooked in favour of the overarching good it has done. So even as high food prices, unemployment, and other factors plague the Indian people, there has been much progress that has already brought India into 5^th place as a global economy. There is every credible possibility for it to gain the 3^rd slot by 2028 or 2030. This is a massive projected achievement, and the people of India wish to support it.

(1,230 words)

November 8^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

Government Pension Funds Need More Lucrative Investment Avenues To Quell The Controversy Between Old And New Schemes

When the Vajpayee administration introduced the new pension system (NPS) for central and other government employees commencing on 1^st January 2004, the motivation was to ensure long-term viability. It is mandatory for the central government employees and a few other entities. Much greater longevity had complicated the calculations on the old pension system (OPS).

The threat of a bankrupt state defaulting on pensions, such as West Bengal, Kerala or Punjab today, was already beginning to loom large in 2003 when the NPS was formulated.

Punjab’s pension liability, as its AAP government plans to go back to the OPS system of 18 years ago, is unsustainable. In 2022-23, it is estimated at Rs 15, 146 crores, or one-third of state revenues of just Rs 45,588 crore for the year. Other commitments such as salary and interest on borrowings takes it to almost 50% over state revenues.

West Bengal, that has never adopted the NPS, says things are much better for the state’s finances after the implementation of Value Added Tax (VAT) and that its pension bill is only about 10% of state revenues. Others are sceptical of the state’s calculations because it is one of the most indebted states of the Indian union.

The OPS was already eating up 65% of India’s GDP basis 2006-2007, on a forward projected basis. The calculation is called implicit pension debt (IPD), the net present value of future pension commitments. A study released by Gautam Bharadwaj co-founder and director of pinBox Solutions that has designed pension systems for Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean regions, and first SEBI Chairman Surendra Dave put up the warning balloon in support of NPS.

The attraction for the OPS, the demand for which has resurfaced in BJP ruled states ( Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh), as much as in opposition and Congress ruled states (Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand and Rajasthan have already reverted to OPS), is that it pays out a sure sum.

The OPS is calculated on 50% of last salary drawn plus dearness allowance based on the averaged earnings of the last ten months of service, adjusted every six months. There are no contributions required while in service and the system kicks in only on retirement.

The NPS calls for nearly equal, (10% for employees, and 14% for the government), but small contributions on a monthly basis, for all central government employees and other entities on the NPS.

If the employee dies while in service the accumulated benefits are given to the nominee. Like in LIC and some other insurance/mutual fund schemes, the employee can also borrow against his/her pension fund even while in service. While the corpus is invested in debt and equity per the employee’s preference, there is no guarantee on the quantum of retirement benefits. This, of course, is daunting for the risk averse.

Now a scheme is being worked out by the pension regulator PFRDA to provide a product that would give assured returns under NPS.

The criticism against the present NPS is that debt fund returns are fairly low at between 5-7.5% per annum compounded which does not even keep up with inflation. And the investments in equity, if chosen, are highly volatile. It is possible, as has been seen with mammoth pension funds in America, that retirement benefits accessed on superannuation are badly compromised by market forces despite long term retention, churning by the fund managers, and sometimes, bad bets.

So while the NPS may reduce government liabilities, it is not always good for the future pensioner. The way out may be for pension regulators to approve bank style lending in housing finance and other loans that can be charged out at 10% p.a. or more against fixed tenures, repayable in EMIs, in a rising interest scenario, and less when the RBI cuts repo and other rates.

With a government guaranteed and run banking/NBFC operation the pensioners funds are not at the mercy of a volatile equity market or a low return debt market. Necessary legislation to accommodate this should be passed so that the funds are not necessarily parked/managed in Indian debt or equity.

If there are compounded returns of around 10% or more per annum on fixed term basis that run into 10 to 20 years, in housing finance, and lesser tenures for other kinds of lending, the pensioner is likely to find that the NPS is more lucrative than the OPS, and without being risky after all.

It will become a win-win situation for both the government and the pensioner. The need for detailed supervision and perpetually running audits will be important to avoid scams. Just making pensions paid out for employees who have joined the central government and other entities including states on the NPS is not enough, though most welcome.

To label the OPS as both bad politics for the Russian Roulette attitude to financial liability, and bad economics because of a burgeoning pension bill that detracts from and cuts into development funds is fine.

But it also calls for the NPS to behave more like a mortgage bank in the Western countries, so that all sides of the financial equation are addressed. Mortgage lenders in the West offer loans, rerate property values of its clients, help to arrange purchases and sales, provide credit and debit cards against the equity developed over the years.

Should our pension funds help people, the government employees, to buy one or more homes, shops, commercial premises? Should pension funds be provided to aatmanirbhar defence manufacturing long term at attractive rates of interest? Can it help the national objectives in multiple ways instead of just being relegated to a stock market that is dominated by billions of dollars in foreign institutional investment (FII) that come and go as it pleases leaving large waves in its wake?

The FII investment that comes into India is generally looking for arbitrage against funds procured at much lower interest rates abroad, and foreign currency versus rupee investment gains. The equity gains, if any, are further profits after all that.

The fact that FIIs can dominate the market with massive buy and sell orders mainly in the top line Sensex stocks makes it difficult for others to compete. While domestic investment in the stock market from institutional and retail operators is much bigger in quantum terms, it tends to stay put because it is largely promoter and investor money tied to equity holdings. None of the FIIs, even the ones with higher allocations to India, have really decided to invest in India long-term as yet. This may change, but not in a hurry. Many are still wedded to the Chinese stock market, because it is much bigger, despite its deep and increasing problems.

Imagination has never been encouraged much in government entities in India till lately. But now that it is, in unicorns and start-ups, in government-private manufacturing in defence industry, in the satellite building and launching business, in the harnessing of alternative energy, there can be niches found which are low risk but attractive investments for our pension funds.

(1,171 words)

November18th, 2022

For:Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

Human Population Growth Is Shrinking The Space For Animals And Other Species On Land Air And Sea Alike

Even on a slowing basis, the world has generated a population of 8 billion human beings as of the middle of November 2022. It will continue to grow to an estimated 10.4 billion people by 2100.

With so many people teeming about, in India and China alone, some 3 billion of the present total, knowing that they will most likely survive and enjoy unprecedented longevity, a big item of fact is on the table, and nobody can do anything much about it. But where will the animals, birds, fishes, bees, butterflies, and other species go? What about the trees and plants being slaughtered with forests being cleared?

In the last 60 years, human population has doubled and wildlife population has not halved, but dropped by 70%.

We are likely to lose 1 million species to extinction in the next few years unless accelerated conservation and repopulation programmes are adopted. Nearly 20 plant and animal species are becoming extinct every hour according to a National Wildlife Federation report from the US.

And yet, as human population expands, deforestation takes place, the air and water bodies are degraded, oceans are over exploited and polluted.

One of the to-do things is reforestation programming on degraded, semi-desert land. This has a knock-on favourable effect on the climate, and provides replacement habitat for animal and bird species, inclusive of water bodies, artificially created if necessary. Many countries have their own programmes.

India currently has just under 25% of its land under forest cover, with 60% of it being cultivated. At one time, shortly after independence, some 58% of land in India was classified as wasteland. It is no wonder we had to ask for food aid instead of being food surplus today. India now wants to increase forest cover to 33% of the land by 2030. That leaves just 5-7% for the snowy reaches and high deserts.

China too has a massive tree plantation drive on over 100,00 hectares to arrest desertification in Xinkiang and other northern provinces, and has the largest tree plantation statistic in the world.

Nevertheless, there is still an approaching global apocalypse. If, of no other kind, then natural disasters like avalanches, tsunamis, typhoons, earthquakes, by which the earth rights itself when it is sick.

Each generation of humans that fails to address such concerns, makes it worse for future generations of people and other species alike.

And yet, most global climate change talks turn into useless blame games with attempts to evade responsibility. It is of course true that the developed West continues to be the greatest polluters and agents of global warming, a great killer of wildlife and plant species, with America leading the tables.

The US is followed by Europe. China and India bring up the rear, despite their huge populations and many polluting industries, the extensive use of fossil fuels and coal.

The West apparently won’t change its lifestyle of massive carbon footprint consumption beyond the introduction of electric cars. Neither will it pay for, or even subsidise, cleaner technologies to be employed in India, China, and other parts of the world. It is a cacophony of unctuous verbal, written, visual and graphic concern, but with Joseph Heller’s Catch -22 built into it.

On the matter of our feathered, finned, leafy and furry friends, even without mindless and greedy hunting and fishing, ruthless timber-logging, many species are going extinct because of destruction of their natural habitat -along with its accompanying flora and fauna.

Toxic air, land, and water, plastic infestation, chemical pollution, poisonous, sometimes secretive dumping of waste material, oil spills, climate change brought about by rampant human consumption and carbon emitting machines and engines, are the global norm today.

Glaciers are melting, temperatures are rising, deforestation is laying great areas to waste and denudation. Mangrove forests are gone.

Over-exploitation of natural resources without putting much back is the cancer. Floods, forest fires, droughts are the result.

The earth’s resources of land, water, space, minerals and consumables are limited. Human beings have shared nature’s bounty with animals, birds, fishes and so on for aeons. But now, the sheer density of population in certain areas and countries, has shrunk the habitat of animals and other species. This is going to get worse before it gets better. Overall population growth will begin to eventually decline in the next century.

The irony of population distribution is that the poorest and least educated tend to have the largest number of children, sometimes aided by religious and cultural sanctions.

But the pressure of inflation and rising aspirations in a largely urbanised world is inexorable. People are now perched on the information highway, and this is changing outlooks. The world is much better informed and connected, even in its remote corners, due to the reach of digitisation and the internet.

Attitudes, beyond socio-cultural dictation, are changing against having large, unaffordable families. A decent standard of living is becoming not just a middle -class desire, but a universal phenomenon that everyone aspires to.

In contrast with a slowing of birth rates amongst the most fertile, there are countries and large parts of the developed world that suffer from declining birth rates, below replacement rate, alongside unproductive and ageing populations. The obvious and easy solution is not the favoured one however.

Countries short on labour and skills are reluctant to open themselves up for massive immigration. Those who have are suffering for it. So now most fear loss of privileged lifestyles, attacks on manners and mores, law and order problems, intrusion of alien cultures and religions.

These can, and often do spark civilian unrest. So, it is a problem of too much in some places, and not enough in others, with no easy answers.

In the past, wars and pestilence were the methods by which populations were restricted. Today, wars tend to be localised, and the threat of nuclear Armageddon keeps them contained.

Medical science, pharmaceuticals have greatly advanced and alleviate problems in most conditions. Only unprecedented Black Swan events and disasters can wipe out tens of millions of people now.

The result of what ought to be a civilisational plus however, is too many people gobbling up resources meant for both man and beast.

Still, the world population is growing at the slowest rate since 1950, having fallen on an average to less than one percent in 2020. Replacement population growth is at 2 per cent.

The pity is that the less useful are breeding away and the others are not. Most of the projected increase in population till 2050 are concentrated in just eight countries: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Tanzania. Countries with the highest fertility rates almost always have the lowest per capita incomes. But then it is the high per capita income countries that are damaging the environment the most.

Globally life expectancy was at 72.8 years in 2019 and will most likely rise to 77.2 years by 2050. But just as the possibilities for mankind have improved vastly from centuries past, they must do so for all the other species we share the earth with. The consciousness for this has come. Some work to save the other species has begun, but this will have to be accelerated, and be accomplished in less space, and by keeping natural predators at bay. We will need managed and monitored forests, mountains, rivers, lakes and oceans. In a highly technological world, it is probably in the fitness of things to avert threats and hazards to our mutual survival. Darwinian Survival of the fittest has to be substituted with survival for the weakest.

There is an ongoing project to revive the extinct, flightless Dodo from its fully sequenced DNA for the first time. It should fill our hearts with immense hope.

(1,290 words)

November26th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Witness The Results Of 7 Recent Assembly Byelections - BJP Is Holding Its Own

The Indian economy has revived quite quickly after Covid, and despite headwinds of imported inflation, is the fastest growing major economy in the world.

The hotly contested Odisha win in Dhamnagar by the BJP shows the road ahead after the Navin Patnaik era draws to a close.

In UP, the BJP handily won the Gola Gokarnath seat defeating its SP rival by over 34,000 votes.

The fact that these assembly byepolls were held in a number of geographically dispersed states, without the BJP losing ground, must be a source of frustration to the opposition.

Another aspect is BJP’s skill in terms of ‘social engineering’, and its formidable booth level management, evident in both the Gopalganj and Adampur seat wins.

(1,230 words)

November 8^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

Monday, October 31, 2022

Why Was Prominent Pakistani Journalist Arshad Sharif Shot By Police In Nairobi On October 23^rd?

Mossad, the renowned Israeli Secret Service organisation, is well known for eliminating enemies of the Jewish State and its people in audacious and imaginative covert operations abroad. Usually, the targets for retribution are blood-soaked individuals, responsible for the murder of a large number of Jews themselves. Its not always bullets. Poisoned toothpaste, honey-traps, robot operated machine guns which are remote-controlled, old-fashioned infiltration, have all been used. What is always evident is deep research, intelligence gathering, flawless execution, with rare exceptions to the contrary.

However, Mossad has never been known to assassinate a Jew abroad, whatever be the provocation.

Mossad quite often claims responsibility after the fact, even though such action violates sovereignty laws in other countries, but not always, particularly when ongoing strategic security interests are involved. The repeated elimination of Iranian nuclear scientists and mysterious explosions that retard Iran’s nuclear weapons programme are cases in point. When it does own up, working in concert with other secret agencies of the Government of Israel, it is to issue a warning to others engaged in action against Jewish interests, and that of the Jewish State.

In Pakistan, going against the military establishment is considered anathema. Any civilian government or institution that takes a critical position against the military is censured at a minimum. Usually personnel have to resign, and if the provocation is serious enough, the government in power will generally fall, as in the case of Imran Khan’s PTI government most recently. For journalists to do anything of the sort is asking for brutal retaliation.

In this case, apart from supporting the Imran Khan government and suggesting the Army had caused its dismissal, Sharif was in the midst of creating an expose on corruption in the former Nawaz Sharif government, the corruption of Army chief General Bajwa and others, called ‘Behind the doors’, when he was killed with a shot to the back of the head on a dark dirt road near Nairobi at 10 at night. General Bajwa is about to retire and be replaced by a new chief of Army Staff sometime in November 2022. Rumours include a possible relocation by him to the United States.

That Sharif’s body was taken to Chiromo Mortuary, 78 km away from the alleged site of the killing, is just one of many strange facts and circumstances concerning this shooting.

The shooting of Pakistani TV journalist Arshad Sharif in Nairobi by Kenyan police is officially trotted out as a case of ‘mistaken identity’. But did the Kenyan police actually do it? Does it have the hand of Pakistan’s deadly ISI behind it, as is widely alleged?

There is a wealth of confusing and contradictory reportage on the killing. One report says the Toyota Land Cruiser Sharif was travelling in, was being shadowed by a car full of Pakistani operatives, a ‘killer squad’ for several days prior, according to former governor of Nairobi, Mike Sonko. This gang of assassins were out to kill Sharif because he was preparing yet another Kenya based expose on people in the present Pakistani government and its deep state, involving a money-laundering syndicate that also owns car showrooms in Nairobi and Mombasa. The Pakistan military and ISI are reported to have intensive connections with Islamic jihadi groups and war lords in Africa, including Kenya.

Allegations of the Kenya Police acting frequently as death squads for hire have also been rife. Al Jazeera has produced a documentary on the subject called ‘Inside Kenya’s Death Squads’, describing its cold-blooded murders on government orders, or for money.

Another report says gunshots were fired at the police at a police check point from inside the car Sharif was travelling in, presumably by his host Ahmed, injuring a policeman on the hand, prompting it to return fire.

It is ironic to note that only Sharif was killed with a clean shot to the back of the head, while all others in his car were unharmed. This despite nine shots being fired, four towards the back left of the car, and five towards the back right of the car including one that punctured the right rear tyre. The Land Cruiser was allegedly trying to flee, but from whom? Was it the Kenyan police check post/hit squad for hire, or the Pakistani assassins stalking it?

The ostensible reason for the police asking Sharif’s car to stop was a reported carjacking, involving also the abduction of a child. But the reported missing car was a Mercedes, and not a Toyota.

Common sense and Kenyan journalistic comments suggest a carjacking does not seem grave enough for the police to have opened fire on civilians, just because Ahmed’s Toyota flouted its order to stop. And then again, why would it not stop? And if Ahmed opened fire first, why was he not shot at?

Yet another report suggests the fatal gunshot was fired from within Sharif’s car. Hmm.

Sharif was being hosted by a family of Pakistani nationals at a farmhouse near Nairobi, at a place called Westlands. He had come to Kenya from the UAE where he had gone in August with an in-between possible visit to Britain.

This farm at Westlands is allegedly owned by a three-star ISI general from Pakistan. Arshad Sharif and Kurram Ahmed, from the host family, had spent that final Sunday afternoon at Ammodump@Kwenia, an entertainment complex with a shooting range, popular with Pakistani gun enthusiasts. It is located on a feeder road in Kamukuru , 85 km south of Nairobi. The duo left the entertainment complex for Nairobi at about 8 pm local time, presumably for Westlands, where they were staying.

On Twitter, Kenyan investigative journalist Brian Obuya said the fatal shot that killed Sharif was ‘fired with precision through the rear mirror of the car’.

Whatever be the truth of Sharif’s actual killing, let us look at the back-story. First, his recent anti-establishment stance. Sharif was known to be close to Imran Khan and his ousted Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf Party (PTI), that is trying hard to make a come-back to power via mass movements and marches. Sharif also gave himself the proverbial ‘kiss of death’ by being critical of the Pakistan military at the same time. Fearing an attack on his life, Sharif fled abroad to Dubai and then to Kenya recently, presumably after losing his job in August, only to meet his fate there on Sunday 23^rd October 2022.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan, who was attending a conference in Saudi Arabia, expressed grief, shock, and horror in a tweet on October 24^th and requested Kenyan President William Ruto over the telephone to expedite the repatriation of the body to Pakistan, and a thorough investigation into the killing. The funeral took place on Thursday the 27^th and attracted huge crowds in Pakistan.

Imran Khan, who said he had advised Sharif to leave the country after he was accused of sedition in May, a case being filed against him on 22May, called Sharif’s shooting a ‘targeted killing’ for his criticism of the power establishment. Khan also called him a ‘martyr’, but perhaps as some critics have said, as an investigative journalist, Sharif should not have drawn so close to a particular political party, out-of-power and in vigorous opposition.

Sharif, who was 49, was an anchor on Pakistan’s ARY TV network. Though he was earlier close to the Pakistan military, he had been vocally critical of late. So much so, that ARY was forced off-air for a spell because it had allowed him to use its platform to spread anti-military sentiment.

Sharif had been briefly arrested by the Pakistan Police for sedition after an interview with an Imran Khan aide from PTI called Dr Shahbaz Gill. He was eventually fired by ARY in August 2022, after serving as host and anchor for eight years at the channel. The Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA), meanwhile had termed some of the comments in the Shahbaz Gill interview as incitement for the ’armed forces to revolt’.

The respected Dawn newspaper of Pakistan reported that Inter-Services-Public Relations (ISPR) Director General (DG) Major General Babar Iftikhar, accompanied by ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Nadeem Ahmed Anjum making a rare public appearance at a press conference in Rawalpindi, said the Pakistani military has requested the civilian government to conduct a ‘high level investigation ‘ into the ‘accidental’ killing of Sharif.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has since announced a thorough judicial investigation and review into the matter.

There is a strenuous effort towards plausible deniability amongst all the authorities in Pakistan. They are keen that America does not see the Sharif murder or mishap as another Jamal Khashoggi moment.

However, this kind of thing is not new in Pakistan. In recent times, Saleem Shehzad was killed on May 3oth, 2011. Hamid Mir was shot six times and wounded by gunmen on April 19, 2014. Matiullah Jan was kidnapped from a busy street in Islamabad on April 20, 2021. Asad Toor, his ribs broken, was brutally tortured by unidentified persons on May 25^th, 2021. Absar Alam was shot but not killed. Judicial commissions investigating these attacks on jounalists have nor handed in any report known to the public.

Both the US and the UN want this death thoroughly investigated, though neither are generating any heat over it. It is, as if, coming from Pakistan, run by its all-powerful military, and known internationally as terrorist central, no one is truly surprised.

(1,561 words)

October 31^st, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee