Low Strategic Political Diplomatic Interest In Western Newsrooms Citing Media Restrictions News Blackouts By Pakistani Regime

Even As Others Report Ruthless Military Bloodshed In PoK, Balochistan,& Widespread Battling With Separatists In Other Provinces Too

The unrest in the most important district of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) has in recent days claimed over one hundred lives at the hands of firing from the Pakistan Rangers. Unarmed demonstrators were shot in cold blood. Tear gas was used. Water cannons too.

There is a blanket ban on foreign media reporting by sending teams to the region, the internet has been cut off, and the only places foreign media can operate freely is in the far-away cities of Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi. The foreign media need NOCs to travel elsewhere. Al Jazeera has been banned for its reporting on PoK despite being from a fellow Islamic country.

By way of contrast, the recent CJP protests in New Delhi with their government overthrowing intentions and massive foreign backing by way of funds, received unrestricted and gleeful coverage in the Western media and internet-based mediums. The West likes to depict the NDA government as authoritarian and undemocratic, and ends up exposing only its bias and predetermined script. The West is fearful of India’s progress and feels threatened by it. So much so, that Zuckerberg’s Meta, erstwhile Facebook, is under investigation for taking down a video message from the prime minister. This, while giving all the critical and abusive noise from the students, their violent hired goons from amongst 2500 history sheeters, past their sell-by date celebrities attracted by the fee to attend, every liberty on its platform.

Meanwhile across the LoC, individuals travelling physically out of locked-down zones like Rawalkot and Mirpur carry saved video files, photographs, casualty lists on thumb drives or memory cards and upload them from Lahore, Islamabad or Karachi where the internet is allowed to work. Or sometimes, from border areas along the LoC where the signal from Indian Jammu and Kashmir is available.

The social media worldwide as a consequence is full of information on the repression in PoK, Balochistan-via the same methods mostly from Karachi, other parts of Pakistan where too guerilla warfare between Afghan and Baloch mujahideen and Pakistani security forces has become the order of the day. The formal media in the West, despite discouragement from their governments that wish to favour Pakistan, have no choice but to give it some coverage based sometimes on reportage and demonstrations from their capitals. There is too much on the social media from first hand sources, if not their own, for them to ignore.

Pressure groups of Kashmiris, human rights groups, students, are demonstrating in London and this has been widely covered in the British press. The recent second phase of ‘local elections’ held in PoK are mostly rigged and being called a sham by the locals and a ‘complete farce’ by India, though the West is largely silent on them.

Western Intelligence Services, including those in America, unlike the Western media they try to keep a lid on, know exactly what is going on in Pakistan and it terrifies them.  This critical situation on Pakistan’s stability is the well-known covert position. Without Pakistan as an effective pressure point, the West’s options with regard to India, China, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, West Asia, and so on is altered for the first time in 75 years, and will have to be viably reworked using other countries.

The West is horrified about a disintegrating Pakistan that is beyond their control or ability to prevent, despite the so-called and much flaunted nuclear weapons calculus. Trouble is, whether it works or not, it cannot be utilised without total self-destruction. India has already called Pakistan’s bluff on their resolve and preparedness during Operation Sindoor recently. It won’t hesitate to do so again if the situation warrants it, all the while having strengthened its own triad-based nuclear response mechanism for those who would like to threaten it.

India, for the moment, is quietly watching the proceedings in Pakistan, warily looking out for a terror strike or cross border attack upon it to distract the Pakistani people from their dire straits. Assuming India is not able to prevent and anticipate any misadventures, it stands to benefit from the break-away movement in PoK, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa if it has to retaliate.

Balochistan has already declared independence from Pakistan on August 11, 2026, and invited other countries to recognise it as such. It has made it very difficult for Pakistan to have any say in more than 42% of its landmass. Pakistan has lost hundreds of security forces in the mineral rich province in recent times. The Chinese built port of Gwadar, other mining locations where the Chinese run things, have become inoperative. The  Chinese built road from Xinkiang via PoK and through Pakistan is unsafe and in shambles.

India could, given the volatile circumstances, also use any attack either via the Pakistani theatres of the LoC and the international border, or in concert with Bangladesh, to its benefit when it inevitably retaliates. Either PoK/Gilgit Baltistan or the Chicken Neck area near Bangladesh, or indeed both, plus the Chittagong port area, could fall to India if the opportunity presents itself. It will be difficult for others to intervene under prevailing geopolitical circumstances. This, while India’s ally Afghanistan is hoping the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province along the disputed Durand Line also falls towards Afghanistan. PoK actually has a land border with Afghanistan as well, as does Balochistan.

Pakistan to the Western  strategic thinking is geographically well located to keep checks on India, China, Iran, Afghanistan, amongst other countries. To have it break up is a nightmare to it, and yet the West doesn’t have a way to keep its population, as opposed to  is miniscule powers-that-be in the Pakistani establishment satisfied.

The chickens are coming home to roost. Not only is West Punjab the dominant province, it is the nuclear-powered epicentre of Pakistan, and absorbs most of the resources. The country as a whole is bankrupt despite frequent injections of capital from the IMF and countries like Saudi Arabia. It still gets money and weapons from a disenchanted China owed bad loans in trillions of dollars, but still keen on using Pakistan against India. But who will take care of its 259.5 million people who are disgruntled and destitute?

Whatever monies Pakistan is able to get from abroad is gobbled up by its oligarchic military and political ruling class. There is no way to bypass the ruling elite and the people are at breaking point despite acute surveillance and repression. Pakistan is indeed without exaggeration on the brink of an imminent break-up caused by gross maladministration and its near starving masses. The crack-up could come within a year or two and when it does no amount of media blackout can keep the world from finding out.

 

  (1,111 words)

August 5^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Untimely Deaths Galore In A Callous Incompetent Nation Without Accountability

A recent judgement in Italy that took eight years and 280 hearings to reach a conclusion put a clutch of the responsible people in jail with sentences ranging from 12 years to five. It was for a bridge collapse that saw 480 people plunging to their deaths in their cars. But yes, all the culpable officials including the head of the bridge authority were punished in the end. This has never happened in India.

In India bridges collapse time and again in Goa and Bihar and sometimes even in Gujarat. Nothing happens to those responsible except for a scapegoat or two who are also let off when no one is looking. Tunnels bury people alive even after rescue efforts save a number. Cable cars hoist passengers hundreds of feet up in the air and if the cars don’t fall down then commandos have to rescue the passengers. Lifts in building crash through many floors. Trains collide due to signalling faults and hundreds die. Buses with drunken drivers fall into gorges. Dangerous roads. Dangerous drivers. No lights. Wrong side movements. Animals. Tractors. Little children.

Deaths, injuries, accidents caused by misadventure are routine in India. From bungee jumps and paragliding deaths to inadvertent poisonings, deliberate murders, crimes of passion. We die in many ways every day amongst our almost 1.5 billion people. Many occur in cars and on motorcycles killing people in or on them but also other innocents, children, bystanders, sleeping people. Liquor is often a companion to these tragedies, and if they involve young people, there is often a sense of invincibility that is suddenly cut off.

In addition, it is almost always accompanied by civic apathy, callousness, sub- standard workmanship, open drains without barriers, huge pits dug and left unattended with no signage, unmarked diversions which are nevertheless precarious, balconies and entire buildings that collapse with people in them and on people passing by. Fires, floods, in hotels, guest houses, coaching centres, with just one inaccessible entrance cum exit, fixed windows, all overbuilt illegally and with impunity. Whole high-rise buildings that have to brought down for faulty construction and illegal floors.

Corruption is rife and goes unpunished because of official collusion. The PWD, the NHAI amongst many other contractors and agencies build roads that develop craters, bridges and flyovers that collapse, more often than not killing people. It is an out-of-control phenomenon without end, perhaps linked to our belief in karma rather than any attempt to fix responsibility and improve accountability.

And then there is the curse of reservation that produces sub-standard administrators, engineers, doctors. A moribund and overburdened judiciary that takes decades to deliver a verdict. One that is not accountable owing to its  closed-loop collegium system.

Wilful negligence results from all this, as culpability does not usually lead to retribution or justice. One tragedy overlaps another and all is forgotten without need of forgiveness. Politicians usually throw some compensation money at the victim families and express routine regret before moving on. Life itself is cheap in India and the best thing anyone can do is look out for oneself.

Where do you begin if you want to improve matters? At least in Western countries where the population is small accountability stands a chance. Here we are masters at pass the buck. Fixing responsibility is well-nigh impossible when every action or the lack of it is diffused over an entire department. Besides, you cannot sack a government official. You can suspend or transfer him or her. You cannot stop the salary or perquisites, the housing or facilities during suspension. Only if a government official is convicted can he or she be dismissed and punitive measures like a stoppage of pension can be made. The sacked official can appeal in a court of law and if successful must be reinstated with full pay, perquisites, any loss of service restored. These laws were set up by the British to suit themselves. Independent India has carefully preserved them undiluted. It is tantamount to immunity of a kind peculiar to Indian bureaucracy and the politicians in parliament or the state assemblies cannot be brought to book except by their peers. Likewise, the judiciary. The private sector can be prosecuted and often is as a point of deflection, unless the bribery has been prophylactic.

In short if something is done properly in India, that is well and good, because if it is not there is little or no recourse. There are fast track courts just as overburdened as the regular ones. There are draconian laws that cannot be enforced until the judiciary is satisfied on the particulars of the case in question. We live in a Kafkaesque impasse.

The reforms that we need fly in the face of democratic freedoms. Simplicity cannot operate in a complex polity like ours. Millions die and will continue to do so to underline this fact. Some nominal activity always flows on from a tragedy. An FIR is filed. A court case is started. And that is that, because who can keep track of it after? This is a country where breaking the law and getting away with it is time-tested. The system itself protects the law-breaker from coming to any harm.

The problem is for the law abiding and civic sense-minded. They have to live on the scraps of our system though nobody will quite admit it. Digitalisation and various forms of forensics and transparency and the new-fangled AI are improving matters very slightly. But the grand overhaul that is called for is far away yet. The malaise is both systemic and attitudinal. All sides of the square look at each other with equal guilt and apathy. Will coming prosperity raise standards and make us demand better from ourselves?

 

(952 words)

27^th July 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Indian Credit Information Moving Into Foreign Hands In The Age Of AI

Nobel laureate Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s meandering novel Love In The Time Of The Cholera  writes of a continual but varied love between different protagonists from youth to old age with a leading pair to anchor the story. This love itself, a main character, is not just an emotion but all-consuming force that keeps mutating. The novel contrasts decades of passionate longing, letters pored over, short affairs that inevitably occur, denial, lies, confessions, underpinned by the virtues of companionable, respectable, marriage. The cholera is the possibility of lurking disease and sudden death in the backdrop.

Attempts to make money are similar in their energy.The everlasting quest between potential seller and buyer fuelled by an unquenchable, amoral, immortal ambition. Nowadays it is not enough to be enticing via advertisements and brand ambassadors. The commercial engine wants an inside track like the Watergate break-ins. This is via the collection of profile and financial data, history, habits, all to be yoked together with new-fangled artificial intelligence and super-fast data-crunching.

Meta, which grew out of a Harvard college room and began as Facebook, those decades ago in order to connect students on campus, has recently paid 900 million USD for a 20% stake in the Indian firm CRED. This, while hiring its founder Kunal Shah as head of WhatsApp worldwide. The platform is one of Meta’s prior acquisitions. WhatsApp now has an Indian consumer base of 500 million people. CRED has more than 17 million users via incentivisation to join. It processes more than 40% of credit card payments in the country. Obviously their data base contains a lot of the better-heeled.

You can already see the Love in the Time of the Cholera style meandering. It is tentacular, going relentlessly into mostly American hands. More so, when you contemplate the money-flows. Who can resist fat USD offers? Certainly not the bright Indians that create marvellous digital architecture such as Aadhar and UPI, and brilliant payment apps, acknowledged as the best in the world.

Walmart via its purchase of Flipkart now controls 72% of PhonePe. Google owns GooglePay of course, and Meta owns WhatsApp Pay with its 500 million potential Indian users. That’s more people than several Western country populations put together. And remember India is growing at roughly 7% in GDP year-on-year. It has a middle class with purchasing power approaching 750 million people.

India offers a humungous consumer market size with its 1.5 billion strong population, the biggest in the world now. China may be almost as populous but it controls its own digital architecture and financial apps 100%, with no foreigner interests whatsoever. However, their consumers are concentrated in their urban hubs and not so spread out as in India with its multiple tiers of cities and towns all full of aspiration.

The fig leaf that allows access to it all is called consent. But every time an individual or organisation uses a private financial app, the process involves agreeing to a lot of profile and credit information including past transactions, spending habits, and so on, passing over seamlessly to forces unknown. This information can be used in a variety of ways-to sell various goods, services, financial products, insurance, wealth management, offer loans, buy property. And, if things go awry, or there is motivation towards it, lead to cyber-attacks via compromised passwords and other data in online platforms connected to laptops, smart phones.

India also has official credit profiling organisations. These collect and analyse credit and loan repayment data to calculate credit scores for individuals and credit ranking for businesses. But even here the meandering tentacles of the foreign entities is apparent. CRISIL is an S&P company, ICRA is an affiliate of Moody’s, another, IND-RA is affiliated to Fitch. So sovereignty over financial and other dats does not exist.

It is reasonable to conclude that despite some government oversight from the RBI and SEBI, the entire space is infiltrated by mostly American organisations. It is already too late to worry about credit information slipping into foreign hands though purchases such as the one just made by Meta may give us a jolt. Perhaps the consequent goods and services available to Indians benefit from the international ownership. Many countries have little problem with selling most things not directly connected to national security to others. What frenemies like China and outright enemies like Pakistan could do with our data is worrisome, but the horse nevertheless seems to have bolted. To worry about it in nationalist terms despite the security implications, is futile without the indigenous investment and infrastructure to go with it. The motive forces are a combination of the passion of uncontrolled love combined with the logic and sedateness of marriage. Gabriel Garcia Marquez knew what he was writing about and the vagaries of human nature. Even though it is difficult to see the substance in the people who bemoan the transfer of Indian financial data to foreign hands without the ability to offer alternatives. Are they failing to acknowledge a ground reality? And in the end, nobody can sell you anything unless you are willing to buy. Buying and selling is a lot like love after all.

(855 words)

June 25^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Can The Gulf States Defend Themselves Without the US?

On the very first day of the current conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran on 28^th February 2026, the Iranians claimed they knocked out the over $ 1 billion worth of AN/FPS-132 missile defence radar. It warns of incoming aerial threats and guides America’s state-of-the-art THAAD missiles.

In India, we chose the Russian S-400 over the THAAD, braving possible US sanctions, and it has proved to be very effective and at cheaper cost. THAAD vs S-400 and S-500 has been demonstrated in the Russian Ukraine War as well.

That reports say Iran destroyed the billion dollar radar with a $ 20,000 Shahed drone. This has been the huge mismatch in this war.

Shaheds in their thousands, versus America’s Tomahawks and other missiles that cost millions of dollars. Of course, Iran used ballistic and hypersonic missiles as well, but partially to wear out the Israeli Dome and other air defences. In many ways America did not prepare well for this war before launching into it.

This radar attack was at America’s major naval base at Manama, Bahrain. The Americans denied the loss, and said a much less important installation was hit, even as satellite pictures showed substantial damage at the naval base in addition. There is a lot of misinformation from both sides and sometimes no information at all.

Compare this patchy performance with the effectiveness of multiple and varied indigenous and imported air defences controlled by the Indian Air Force during Operation Sindoor.  Amazingly, they ensured not a single Pakistani missile, mostly of Chinese origin, or the Turkish supplied drones, did any damage to any military bases or civilian targets, including the Golden Temple at Amritsar. Indian missiles including the famed BRAHMOS devastated Pakistani targets and destroyed their Chinese-made air defences.

Israel, meanwhile, also on day one, wiped out the supreme leader and a large number of the top leadership in Tehran using very powerful bombs. It expected this decapitation of Iran’s top-drawer leadership would collapse the ruling regime. It is what happened in Venezuela but the Islamic regime in Iran is very different.

This notion was clearly premature in Iran’s layered system. And now, very importantly, the intelligence gathered by the US and Israel seems to have fallen short of the locations of hundreds of missiles and drones stored by Iran in reinforced tunnels underground, all over the country. This in addition to over 400 Kg of enriched weapons grade uranium that remains secreted.

The US and Israel should have anticipated this, because the Hamas in Gaza, inspired, financed, and armed by Iran, also held out for a very long time using their network of tunnels and underground storage facilities.

Meanwhile, after 17 days of this war, the pounding of Iran from the air continues, after its air defences and out-of-date air force was knocked out early in the day. But, a daily quota of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel, the American forces on sea and land, and the countries of the Gulf keeps raining down using a decentralised system.

The US, Gulf states and Israeli air defences are too expensive for the showers of inexpensive Iranian Shahed drones and expendable ballistic missiles. America is just beginning to retaliate likewise with its Lukas drones and Laser weapons, but this has come late and is another glaring intelligence failure. Billions of dollars have been spent but Iran’s regime is still able to fight back. There are hints of much heavier duty missiles still in stock as well.

The real issue is not whether American bases are required in the Gulf because that is a foregone conclusion, but their unpreparedness in the face of superior Iranian strategy and tactics.

The Gulf countries, shaken by the violence, are now keen on the Americans finishing the job of ousting the Iranian regime. They have overcome their earlier ambivalence and are much more alert to incoming attacks.  

The Islamic regime has been in power for 47 years and most recently survived a savage attack on its nuclear facilities by the US and Israel less than a full year ago. They have apparently been preparing for another attack ever since.

The Gulf States have afforded US military bases in most of their countries for decades now, ever since West Asia became independent from erstwhile British rule before WWII. Some still have British and French bases as well. Among other reasons, this is because with low native populations, even their armed forces are manned, trained and officered to a large extent by expatriates. This was long felt to be clearly inadequate.

However, despite the American military presence in multiple countries all over the Gulf, tasked by the host countries to be defensive in nature rather than as pads for offensive military action, Iran has been able to play havoc with them.

It has penetrated US air defences, attacked and significantly damaged assets, and caused combatant casualties, using waves of drones and missiles. Iran has also recently knocked out six of the US refuelling planes necessary for the fighter aircraft and bombers flying long missions. The Russians and Chinese are said to be providing locational intelligence, weapons and spare parts to Iran.

 This destruction is happening not only at the American bases including at a massive airbase in Qatar, another in Saudi Arabia, yet another in Kuwait, and a naval base in Bahrain that houses its 5^th fleet.

In addition, Iran has swiftly attacked oil assets including refineries and storage tanks, terminals for loading the oil and gas into tankers, buildings, other facilities, much more widely in all the host countries. This, to punish them for hosting American bases and spiral oil prices out of control as production facilities shut down to limit damage. Even as the true extent of the damage done to Iran is masked, the regime is setting stiff terms for the end of the war and demanding the US bases be removed. They know that next time it won’t be so easy.

The Iranian strategy has been to widen the war to include the Gulf states and others farther afield including bases, houses, and embassies in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Iraq, Lebanon, sometimes using proxies.

In addition, Iran has blocked the Straits of Hormuz except to select vessels from China, India, Pakistan on a case-by-case basis after negotiations The Straits of Hormuz is the narrow artery through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas reaches elsewhere. Oil prices have risen to over $ 100 a barrel and threaten to rise higher. The Iranians are set to have mined the straits and are capable of drone and explosive laden boat attacks despite the destruction of most of its navy. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to Yanbu and a terminal on the Red Sea but it  has limited carrying capacity and cannot meet all the demand.

For Iran, the main enemy continues to be Israel and the US after the start of the third week of this current war, but all their allies are declared targets of the regime in Iran and its IRGC fighters in particular, not only in the theatre of war in West Asia, but elsewhere in the world. Even American companies in West Asia have been declared as targets.  At the same time, America’s European allies have been most reluctant to get involved in this war. The economic damage is rivalling the military toll with no end in sight. It is clearly up to America to finish what they have started with a Prince Pahlavi waiting to provide a transitional government. Another school of thought is calling for a ceasefire and negotiations. The realistic assessment is that a ceasefire does not mean this war wont flare up again after a pause.  

Iran did fight Iraq to a standstill for eight years not very long ago. In earlier centuries there have been 30 year and 100 year wars too. It did not mean that both sides fought continuously, but they did fight to an eventual resolution.

(1,327 words)

March 17^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Upcoming Transshipment Port In The Great Nicobar Along with an Airbase Is A Major Gain For International Commercial Shipping And The Andaman Theatre Military Command

The recently opened Vizhinjam International Transshipment Deepwater Multipurpose Seaport on the tip of Kerala facing the Indian Ocean, is already a resounding success.

It has been used by the largest container ships in the world, and its state-of-the-art automated AI assisted facilities are deeply appreciated by international shipping plying in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Vizhinjam is situated just 10 nautical miles from major international East-West shipping routes. Developed as a public-private partnership with port major, the Adani Group, Phase 1 already handles 1 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units). It is going to be expanded in due course to 6.2 million TEUs in later phases. The deepwater transshipment port has a natural draft of 20-24 metres and minimal littoral drift.

Now India has announced it is going to replicate this lucrative, strategic and commercial breakthrough, the first of its kind on the subcontinent, with another deepwater transshipment port in the Great Nicobar Islands located strategically just 40 nautical miles from the extremely busy Malacca Straits.

China, active in the IOR for several years now, has a number of port bases in various countries, but no deepwater transshipment ports. The nearest transshipment port in the IOR beyond Vizhinjam, is in Colombo, Singapore, and Port Klang. The others are farther away in the Asia-Pacific.

The International Container Transshipment Port (ICTP) at Galathea Bay in the Great Nicobar Island will be constructed alongside a fully equipped airbase with stretch runways for large and heavy civilian/military aircraft, power infrastructure, and other  defence installations plus an integrated purpose built township.

The overall investment eventually will be in the region of Rs.100,000 crores, starting with the first phase of the port at a cost of some Rs. 20,000 crores.

Like Vizhinjam, the Galathea Bay transshipment Port (ICTP) also has a natural draught depth of over 20 metres. The first phase is expected to be commissioned by 2028, with a handling capacity of 4 million TEUs, rising to 16 million TEUs in phase 4. The First phase of the Galathea Bay Port includes two breakwaters, a 400 meter wide channel for navigation, an 800 metre wide turning circle, seven berths at over 2.3 km length, a container yard with 125 ha, automated equipment for handling the containers including RMQCs (Rail mounted Quay Crane) and RTGs (Rubber Tyred Gantry) and two berths to handle liquid cargo. Like Vizhingam, It will also be a public private partnership and invite foreign investment as well.

Adani, with considerable port expertise at Mundhra and other ports in India, is already cooperating with Marseille Port in France and others in Israel and Greece as well.

 The ITCP transshipment port spread over 166 sq.km. is located southwest of Campbell Bay and the INZ Baez Naval Port. It is currently connected by the Campbell Bay-Galathea Bay road and Galathea Bridge No.46 built by the BRO(Border Roads Organisation). All these are likely to be enhanced to suit the development.  

Positioned ideally to tap into the trade between Asia, Africa, the US and Europe that passes through the IOR, the ICTP at Galathea Bay will compete with Singapore, Colombo and Port Klang in the near area that presently handles the transhipped cargo in the region that has not been tapped by Vizhinjam in Kerala.

The potential commercially is enormous if one realises that the prosperity of Shanghai, Shenzen and Singapore is partially and substantially based on its port efficiencies, its logistical sophistication, and the massive transshipment cargoes they handle. The ITCP at Galathea Bay is projected to generate at least Rs. 30,000 crores per annum in the first phase and provide over 50,000 jobs.

Great Nicobar Island  is the southernmost and largest of the Nicobar islands group. It is about 520 Km from Port Blair. It is located  on the main east-west international shipping route almost equidistant from Colombo, Malaysia’s Port Klang, and Singapore.

India’s container traffic stood at 17 million TEUs in 2020 compared to China’s 246 million TEUs. This provides some idea of the scope for growth India is now tapping into, with its two strategically located transshipment ports. Till now, India’s own transshipment cargo was being handled by other ports.

The entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands are also being gradually developed for tourism and fisheries, while defence is a key objective in several of the islands, as in Lakshadweep which is very close to the Maldives and not very far from Mauritius.  

Simultaneously, India is developing its existing and new greenfield ports along both sea boards. It is also expanding its ship-building, submarine and aircraft carrier building capacity, for military and civilian applications for both domestic use and exports. These include oil tankers and on-order ships for other countries. India is also turning into a repair and refurbishing hub for itself and allied naval fleets, including those of the US operating in the IOR and the Asia-Pacific.

India is also looking into deep water mineral harvesting and blue water economies in deep sea fishing to a much more organised degree, given that China is already very active in these areas too. Other countries are even fishing in our territorial waters.

Most importantly, developments in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are positioning India as a strategic and commercial partner in the Arabian Sea, the IOR and the Bay of Bengal without losing any more time over it.

(882 words)

February 18^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Budget Announcements- Good For Its Capex Increase, Chip Manufacturing, High-Speed Rail Corridors, Sentiment Dampener For Stock Markets

The Budget presentation on Sunday February 1^st, 2026 held few surprises. It made three marquee announcements- raising the Capex budget by one lakh crores to 12.2 lakh crores. This will certainly help to keep the GDP growth on track at around 7% per annum via continued infrastructure development.

However, there are no direct incentives for greater private sector capex unless they choose to take up one or the other of the several incentivised sectors for boosting manufacturing.

The macro-economic markers have been preserved intact by this prudent budget, marked by incremental continuity rather than big bang initiatives.

The fiscal deficit target has been set at 4.3% of GDP for 2026-27. The government will target a debt to GDP ratio of 55.6% of gross domestic product for 2026-27 and the intention is to lower this going forward. Total government debt stands at 85% of GDP with the Centre accounting for 57% of it. This, as it stands, compares well with most other developed countries.

Second, there is an allocation of Rs 40,000 crores for electronics manufacturing, namely semiconductor or chip manufacturing. It is a second tranche to promote this vital sector, its R&D efforts, and training.

Third is the plan to develop 7 high speed rail corridors between major growth-oriented cities. These are Mumbai-Pune, Pune-Hyderabad, Hyderabad -Bengaluru, Hyderabad-Chennai, Chennai-Bengaluru, Delh-Varanasi, Varanasi-Siliguri.

Religious and pilgrimage tourism which has become a significant economic contributor in recent  times, with visitors to Ayodhya contributing 1% of GDP, and Varanasi proving to be a magnet with the largest number of visitors in the country, received careful attention in the budget. There will be new pilgrimage tourism circuits developed not only for Hindus but also Buddhists.

Several neglected ASI designated monuments will also receive restoration funds and initiatives. Other circuits for trekking in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will also be developed. Yet more for bird watching will be developed in Kerala, Assam and other states.

Many of the other announcements were intended as long-term structural adjustments to various sector incentives and duties towards the Vikshit Bharat targets for 2047. One example of this are the customs duty exemptions on components and parts to boost civil and defence aviation. India is keen to make its military and civilian aeroplanes in India now, along with  commercial ships and containers. This is in addition to a big push for military oriented ships and submarines, even another aircraft carrier, for the Indian Navy and Coast Guard. India is expanding its ports, container handling facilities, transshipment facilities along with setting up new ports along both coast lines and in the Andamans. Rs.10,000 crores will be invested in container manufacturing.

There is also a boost for inland waterways expansion for rare earth mining corridors in several states such as Odisha, Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu to aid its transportation via these waterways. 

There was a boost given to the intended establishment of Data Centres by foreign entities with a tax exemption provided till 2047 juxtaposed with encouragement for them to provide cloud services internationally and to Indian entities via Indian intermediaries. 

Likewise, another Rs. 10,000 crores was set aside as incentive to develop the bio-pharma space. India will also use Rs 20,000 crores to develop carbon capturing facilities. Seaplane manufacturing will be facilitated. Fishing at sea is being incentivised with no tax, and dropping off the catch abroad will be treated as an export.

There were incentives announced for education and skilling. There are a large number of small incentivisation for a variety of items in this budget. Tax compliance process too has been eased.

Given a fragile stock market that has underperformed other emerging markets, plagued by FII abandonment and heightened volatility, it could have done with some encouragement. A lot of money was sucked into a slew of IPOs in the primary market over the past year and a pronounced rupee weakness too has not helped.  A capital gains tax easing and removal of withholding tax on FIIs would have greatly enthused the market. But it was not to be. Instead, there was a 50% hike of STT on futures and 150% on options which is estimated to raise a modest Rs 25,000 crores.

These impositions, on the face of it, therefore are not big in their impact on F&O traders, but sharply damaged the market sentiment, at least in first reaction.  The market fell hardest in the last six years. But it could drive more FIIs away in the short to medium term towards freer markets elsewhere and reduce liquidity even in the cash market.

There was a pre-budget expectation for a boost in defence spending particularly for aatmanirbhar manufacturing.  This did come in the budget with a 15.3% hike to 7.84 lakh crores in the budget of which only  2.19 lakh crores  is for capital outlay. This did not please the street, with profit taking on defence stocks which had risen some 16% in the run up. It could also be that some further purchases will happen on an ad hoc basis going forward, as and when negotiations finalise. There is probably a case for most important and even reformist initiatives being taken off-budget in the future.

In the end, this union budget was a continuity budget signalling stability within the constraints of a tight fiscal situation and geopolitical turbulence.

 

(881 words)

February 1^st, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Why the EU President Calls The Imminent FTA with India The Mother Of All Deals

The 27 member EU, supported by its neighbouring countries, mostly in Eastern Europe, who also want to join it, is a very large and influential economic unit. Croatia was a recent entrant after many years of adjustments and preparation. The EU is a $22.52 trillion conglomerate on a nominal basis or $30.18 trillion on a PPP basis. Great Britain, no longer in the EU after Brexit, has already signed its own separate FTA with India recently.

The 32 member NATO, also largely European, are intertwined in many ways with the EU. The EU rivals the United States in heft and size, and as India’s negotiations with both approach closure, the FTA with the EU is likely to be signed first. It will no doubt have a knock-on effect on the Indo-US interim trade agreement too.

Agricultural products have been left out of the draft agreements in both cases because of Indian red lines. It employs large numbers working in, and dependent on, this sector, who cannot be allowed to be adversely affected by foreign, often highly subsidised competition. But for long, this area of possible business was keenly debated between the negotiating teams and took up much time.

As the old structures of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and similar bodies including those associated with the United Nations (UN), fall into disrepute, ineffectiveness and disuse, these FTAs between countries and groups of countries are gaining massive importance. India as the leader of BRICS at present and with strong ties with the  G-20/21, the Global South and the African Union, is pursuing many other bilateral agreements and cooperation.

The advanced countries, many hampered by low population and sluggish growth, are also looking for stimulation for the technological prowess in their economies, and an alternative to excessive dependence on China. India is an obvious alternative in principle as demonstrated by US giant Apple, though it will have to be built up, just as China once was.

The current European Commission President, German and a woman, Ms Ursula von der Leyen, in the top job as of 2019, recently called the imminent Free Trade Agreement with India the ‘mother of all deals’.

Coming in the backdrop of an aggressively tariffing United States, the prospect of trading freely with nearly 2 billion people representing almost 25% of the world’s GDP, is an exciting prospect indeed.

Long years in the negotiating, the India-EU FTA is likely to be signed on the 27^th of February, after the President of the EU Council, Mr Antonio Costa, and President of the European Commission, Ms Ursula von der Leyen grace the occasion as chief guests on  India’s 77^th  Republic Day on the 26^th of January 2026.

The world has changed a great deal in President Donald Trump’s second term  emphasis on ‘America First’, and added some urgency as well as flexibility to the FTA negotiating process.

 The EU has also just announced this week in Brussels that it will also proceed with a security and defence partnership with India as per the EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas. Both France and Germany are negotiating mega deals in fighter aircraft and submarine collaborations presently amongst other things. India is also favoured in the defence and other related and unrelated spheres by the United States, Israel, Russia, Brazil, Spain, Japan,  South Korea, and Britain, with various projects underway and under consideration.

India is also keen to make its own civilian aircraft, ships and tankers, its own computer chips in collaboration with Taiwan, other electronics manufacturing and assembly, rare earth mining and development, nuclear energy, railway and metro modernisation and development, in addition to a massive defence manufacturing push encompassing the army, navy, air force, space, satellite, deep sea,  and intelligence sectors.

From the Indian point of view, an FTA with the EU will boost technology absorption under its aatmanirbhar programmes in diverse fields, double the exports to Europe, lead to greater employment opportunities and exchanges including education and medical science, robotics, drones, UAVs, and progress in IT and AI adoption all to an unprecedented degree.  Indian trained and educated manpower is a strength not only in India but in Europe as well.  The EU-India FTA will be the biggest for India so far, representing a decisive entry into a global value chain.

The prospect of India signing the interim trade agreement with the US, recently endorsed by President Trump at Davos, despite the 50% tariffs imposed on India, will redouble India’s position in the global value chain with many leading American companies choosing to set up development centres in India. These include Google and Amazon. Once the EU-India FTA becomes a reality, the Americans will be keen to proceed with the Indo-US interim trade deal at the earliest too.

India’s multilateral approach has paid good dividends in terms of diversification of its collaborators and markets, and kept its growth trajectory intact and expanding, despite punitive tariffs imposed by the US. These tariffs are likely to be reduced shortly to no more than 15% even as other countries in the littoral who have been granted lower tariff rates compared to India, have not managed to keep pace with it.

It now seems certain that not only will India become the third largest economy in the world after the US and China by 2028 or 2030, but it will also become a middle-income economy with a per capita income of over $ 4,000 despite its massive globe beating population.

India is also edging closer to China in economic matters as its border tensions come under better control. This is important from the point of view of not being allied to any power blocks, but pursuing its strategic and national interest first. This is favoured, of course, by India’s long-term friend and ally Russia for balance, and makes it clear to those inimical to India’s progress that dogma is not a guiding principle for India.  As India strengthens its relationship with countries in West Asia, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Armenia, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and with those in the Asia-Pacific such as Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand, it gains rich dividends from its non-discriminatory and independent foreign policy. In time, India will be featured in most geo-political and strategic crossroads as a viable and valuable  partner.  

(1,045 words)

January 22^nd, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Amit Shah And The NAFCUB COOPKUMBH 2025 Seeks to Bring Cooperative Banking to Every Small Town And Hinterland Village

Home Minister Amit Shah who is also the Union Cooperation Minister  inaugurated the NAFCUB-COOPKUMBH 2025 in New Delhi on 11^th November. NAFCUB is the acronym for the National Federation of Urban cooperative Banks and Credit Societies. Amit Shah has held the Union Cooperation portfolio ever since it was formed in 2021, and retained it when the NDA government embarked on a new term in 2024. This is a testament to his imagination and dynamism that has greatly helped to boost this sector.

The conference, inaugurated in New Delhi, was an international pitch on the future of India’s urban cooperative banking sector. The international cooperative movement likes to learn from each other’s initiatives and success stories.  

The conference adopted a Delhi Declaration 2025, designed to serve as a guide for the expansion of Urban Cooperative Banking systems in India. The idea is to serve every town with a population of just 2 lakh people across the country within 5 years. This, while India has a population of more than 1.4 billion, the largest in the world.

 The international cooperative movement, called the International Cooperative Alliance (ICA) was established in 1895 in Britain, and has survived both the world wars despite sharp political differences amongst some of its member countries. It counts over a billion people in its ranks, members of three million cooperatives. The ICA also enjoys consultative status representation at the United Nations (UN).

The objective of the November 11^th conference is to provide cooperative banking in every nook and cranny, so that people in small towns and villages too have access to suitable and responsive banks. The cooperative construct creates a rootedness in the community that has been a hallmark of the movement. The endeavour is to provide inexpensive credit to agriculturists and MSMEs in small towns.

There will be early adoption of digital initiatives such as Sahkar Digipay and Sahkar-Digiloan apps. NAFCUB, which has been in existence since 1977 as an apex promotional body and multi-state cooperative society, has been directed to have 1,500 banks onboard Sahkar Digipay within two years. It has also been directed to upgrade as many thriving credit societies into urban cooperative banks (UCB) as possible. The Indian cooperative sector UCBs have improved their viability by bringing down their non-performing assets (NPAs), from 2.3% to 0.6% since 2023.

Internationally recognised organisations such as Amul and the Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative (IFFCO), are shining examples of success stories in the Indian cooperative sector. So why not excel also at last-mile banking?

The Ministry of Cooperation under Amit Shah has recently introduced a National Cooperative Policy 2025 which outlines a plan for modernising the cooperative sector over the next two decades. India has been a key member of the ICA ever since it established a regional office in New Delhi in 1960.It has been a driving force in shaping cooperative models that have had a favourable impact on other organisations particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

Efforts in the ministry are ongoing to strengthen Primary Agricultural Credit Societies (PACS), dairy and fisheries cooperatives, through both digital and policy reforms. The Cooperation Ministry has already established multi-state cooperative societies for organic products, exports, and traditional seeds. All three are currently much fancied globally in the face of criticism of too much use of chemical fertiliser, and the use of genetically modified seeds.

 The Ministry of Cooperation has also set up the Tribhuvan Sahkari  University to strengthen  cooperative education and turn out skilled personnel for the sector.

 

578 words

December 5^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Delivery, Not Disruption & Drama, Is What Parliament Is  For

Are the all too familiar wasteful and almost non-functional parliamentary proceedings in India a mirror to the fact that liberal democracy has proved to be a failure here? That seventy-five years of this subversion of the intent of our founding fathers is quite enough?  That which is enshrined in India’s bulky omnibus constitution may have been, after all, an imposition too far? That a guided democracy that does not brook anarchy and deliberate subversion needs to be ushered in now?

If this cannot be done overnight, the serious efforts at reforms must begin urgently. Does this unwieldy and out-of-date constitution need to be amended or replaced by one that serves the times we live in? Is wasting hundreds of crores to run parliamentary sessions that end up hurriedly passing bills into law without discussion worth it? It seems to be the only recourse available, and that by virtue of a ruling alliance majority. Where is the proper representation of the people in all this? Is this a sham with no accountability that is merely playing at democracy?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the winter session of parliament on the 1^st of December with the customary opening remarks from the head of government. His strong admonitions and appeals to the opposition to not vent their frustration at their recent rout at the Bihar Assembly elections, fell quite predictably, on deaf ears. The wrath is not only directed at the ruling NDA alliance, but the Election Commission, a constitutional body; at the courts, including the Supreme Court, for not supporting the spurious Congress and TMC allegations.

This is a time when we must act. Expulsions will work better than persuasion. Nothing short of it will make any difference to parliamentarians, enamoured of extra constitutional methods, bent on stopping the work of the house. Methods that instigate mobs and riots, arson and violence, on the streets.  

But since such people are thankfully in a minority in parliament, they can, and must be firmly dealt with. Suspending them for a day or two, or even a week, has not worked in the past. They need to be sent out for the whole session. Their terms as members of parliament need to be cut from five years to four or even three, till they decide to behave appropriately in the house. It remains to be seen whether the government has the determination to do any such thing. Judging from past sessions of parliament, this does not seem likely. Helplessness is also a political strategy.

It must be said that not all parties in the opposition at this time are of one mind, and some want to proceed with the business at hand. The prime minister’s remarks occasioned strong reactions from the Congress, though it has won only 6 seats out of 243 in Bihar. There is no acceptance of reality. No urge to change its ways. Instead, its anger was wrapped in an assertion that the conduct of the elections was unfair, followed by a clamour for an immediate discussion on the ongoing SIR process. This, even if the discussion was held under the broader category of ‘election reforms’.

However, several other opposition parties were markedly more interested in pursuing other issues, including the legislative agenda first.

A clear division in the ranks of the I.N.D.I.A opposition alliance is evidently forming, and the leadership of the alliance by Congress might well be under review. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) from West Bengal, for example, was already moving on its own and not attending meetings called by Congress. There is also disquiet within the Congress on the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and indeed the Gandhi family.

That the recent ‘Vote Chori’ campaign in the media and the tour in Bihar undertaken by Rahul Gandhi and Tejaswi Yadav pulled a blank, and possibly harmed their cause, must be still rankling. And yet, Congress is determined to continue the campaign. But others in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, including Tejaswi Yadav of the RJD, are not convinced. There is apparently no Vote Chori except as a fantasy in Rahul Gandhi’s mind!

 The prime minister urged the sections of the opposition who are busy accusing the EC to get over their obsession. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijuju was more conciliatory, and assured the protestors that the government would consider the demand for a discussion on SIR, but the timelines for it could not be dictated by the opposition.

Through the noise, a bill was passed in the morning of day one in the Lok Sabha. It was to implement the GST law in Manipur. But another two bills, also tabled by the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, to rejig levies on tobacco, pan masala and related goods, could not proceed in the face of constant slogan shouting. This resulted, as usual, in the Lok Sabha being adjourned for the rest of the day. Every expensive session of parliament functions in this chaotic manner.

The Rajya Sabha fared no better, with the opposition Congress, CPM and TMC demanding immediate discussion on SIR and eventually walking out when it was not agreed to.  The plan is to keep it up for days, and taking it to the entrances and lawns outside as well.

The real fear is that the SIR process now to take place in just 12 states at first, will catch and out many illegals. The process, to update and sanctify the electoral rolls may weed out lakhs of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants. If found out, they have been added with the likely connivance of parties who use them in their vote banks. That the SIR has been regularly conducted every few years since independence is conveniently ignored.

In his opening remarks before the start of the session, Prime Minister Modi said the opposition should avoid disruption so that debate and discussion can take place on important legislation. Nor should sections of the opposition use the winter session as a political ‘warm up’ tool for the approaching poll campaigns in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu that will go in for elections in the first half of 2026. This, followed by those in Kerala and Uttar Pradesh in 2027.

There is every attempt to bring state politics to the highest legislative body in the land, remarked the prime minister.

Everyone knows what is going on, but how far is the government prepared to go in order to stop it?

(1,064 words)

December 2^nd, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Two Hundred And Eight  Out Of 243 Seats For the NDA In Bihar Assembly Elections Consolidates Its Power In State And Centre

The June 2024 Lok Sabha election results gave the BJP 240 seats, short of a majority on its own, and occasioned the formation of the NDA government with the support of Nitish Kumar led Bihar, and Chandrababu led Andhra Pradesh. The centre in return poured in investment to strengthen the hands of both allies.

The Opposition, unrealistically, predicted that this troika would last only a short season, and made strenuous efforts to topple the central government. Of course, it could not, and the NDA is going strong nearly a year and a half later.

After this thumping victory in Bihar for the NDA, the stability of the centre till the next general elections in 2029 seems assured as friend and foe acknowledge its import. The last time the NDA won more than 200 seats was in 2010.

An elderly but astute Nitish Kumar will take the oath as Chief Minister of Bihar at the head of his Janata Dal United Party and the NDA for yet another five-year term. This, after 20 years on and off at the helm of Bihar. Any other move will be destabilising.

The Opposition Mahagatbandhan has received a severe drubbing with RJD vastly diminished and Congress practically wiped out. The reasons for the NDA victory are several. When Tejaswi said change is coming, he did not mean a total rout for his own ambitions.

In addition to very effective welfare policies, the female vote for Nitish Babu spoke clearly. His development politics along with help from the centre, including roads, metros, bridges, airport and railway improvements, other infrastructure, have been appreciated. Nitish Kumar has been a clean Chief Minister. There is absolutely, no anti-incumbency seen.

In addition, this win demonstrates a very successful coalition of all the electoral elements in Bihar with the partial exception of the Yadavs and Muslims. This is remarkable, because when a traditional vote bank breaks ranks, the game tends to be over, even for the future.

Within the NDA, the ground work for the elections was  extremely well done including the micro-management, and constituent parties plus influencers like the RSS. None worked at cross purposes.

Despite constant and insidious suggestions that the BJP might want to replace Nitish Kumar as chief minister it is most unlikely. This speculation comes from BJP having won about a dozen more seats than the JDU. The electoral result mathematics this time does not offer sensible alternatives, even if Nitish Kumar wanted to switch sides. Nitish Kumar himself has shown no inclination to do so, but he is an astute politician, and would not take kindly to any move to push him out. But quite apart from the real politics involved, the BJP can be believed that it is not interested in doing any such thing at this time.

A section of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD’s) traditional vote bank too seems to have deserted it, despite many first-time voters. The opprobrium of the ‘Jungle Raj’ associated with the Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi years in power, appears to have drastically brought down the tally of the Tejaswi led RJD. His estranged brother is losing his seat, and so apparently, is he, struggling against the BJP candidate in RJD bastion Raghopur.

The old attitude of issuing threats of violence if the RJD/Mahagatbandhan loses has been prominent during the campaign, and even after the results, with accusations of ‘vote chori’ and allusions to chaos engendered in Bangladesh and Nepal. But this is more wishful thinking.

The erstwhile grim situation in the pre-Nitish Kumar years, has been largely replaced with law and order. Women feel safe. They drive buses and the metro. They can go out after dark. They are happy with the prohibition against alcohol.

And quite possibly, there has been a consolidation of the Hindu vote in the backdrop of an Islamic terrorist attack in New Delhi’s Red Fort area. This could carry over to other forthcoming assembly elections. Some commentary from the redoubtable Union Minister Giriraj Singh of the BJP points towards the hope of a NDA success next in West Bengal.

Further afield, foreign efforts from The US and Europe in addition to the usual Islamic and Communist suspects, have been ongoing to weaken the Modi government. This is unfortunately aided by sections of the Opposition, particularly the Congress Party with nefarious funding from abroad.  There have been moves afoot to engineer regime change, as in Bangladesh and Nepal, and even threaten the life of the prime minister.

This resounding win in Bihar however  reinforces the NDA and underlines its continued popularity and legitimacy. Bihar is an important state, often read alongside Uttar Pradesh as essential for any party that wishes to rule at the centre.

The foreign elements are also upset with India’s rapid economic and military progress, its strategic autonomy, its nationalist, bilateral and multipolar stance in dealings with other countries. The West has been long used to patronising and dictating terms to India before Modi.

India is also a leading light of the G20 or actually G21 now, which it will chair once again in 2026. It is also prominent in BRICS, viewed by the Trump administration as anti-American and the universal use of the US dollar in international trade. India is also a leader of the Global South and very well regarded in Africa, West Asia including Israel, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and South America. By 2028, India will become the 3rd largest major economy in the world largely based on its substantial domestic market. This fact makes it difficult to restrict and bully.

The imminent India-US interim trade deal is likely to be inked shortly without further efforts to pressure fresh concessions out of India. Perhaps more so now. India’s determination to punish those responsible for the latest terror attack and conspiracy has also been duly noted by Pakistan, China and globally.

The Trump administration has also been indicating that the punishing tariffs at a total of 50% are likely to be reduced to about 15%. But in the intervening months, India has found and increased its trade with a number of other countries including the UAE and Britain with which countries it already has free trade agreements. It has also stepped up its efforts to collaborate with countries such as France, Russia and Israel in defence matters, and increased its exports of defence equipment since Operation Sindoor attracted a good deal of foreign interest.

India on its part, enjoying a period of very low inflation, is likely to cut its interest rates further by another 25 bps in December 2025. This will boost the domestic economy and spur investment.

Once the trade interim deal is signed with America, the ones in the pipeline with the EU, New Zealand, Oman and increased bilateral business with Japan, South Korea, Nigeria, Brazil, Guyana and others will no doubt go much faster.

Vladimir Putin of Russia is going to visit India on December 5^th. A number of defence and technology deals are likely to be signed in addition to greater people to people cooperation.

Even the restrictions placed on the American H1B visa for IT personnel in the main are being loosened afresh as realisation dawns in America that they cannot do without Indian know-how in this field.

A lot of this international change of heart is to do with the old adage: ‘If you can’t beat them, you had better join them’. In this endeavour, the Trump administration may be rolling back its strictures, but other countries, perhaps more visionary, have been ahead of the curve for some time.

(1260 words)

November 14^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Warm Bhutan India Ties Reinforced By Modi Visit

Strategically located but land-locked, Bhutan is bordered by both India and China, with the latter regularly negotiating land concessions from the tiny kingdom.

India has traditionally been a  non-predatory support to the kingdom with regular concessionary loans, electricity purchases, and a defence protection pact with it. India and Bhutan also have long-standing cultural ties, and at present has loaned it some sacred  Piprahwa relics of Lord Buddha for a 10 day period during a special Peace Prayer.

Bhutan has always favoured its autonomy and unique ways, including emphasis on its world famous ‘Gross Domestic Happiness’.

 In this current two-day visit, not postponed, despite an Islamic terror attack in New Delhi’s Red Fort area by JeM and ADuG inspired operatives, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and King Jigme Khesar Wangchuk, the fourth Druk Gyalpo, jointly inaugurated the 1020MW  Punatsangchhuu-II hydroelectric project. The occasion also marked the King’s 70^th birthday.

The project inauguration was hailed as a milestone in the vibrant and growing mutually beneficial partnership between India and Bhutan. India also announced a new concessional line of credit of Rs 4,000 crores for Bhutan to fund other energy projects.

Bhutan currently produces all its electricity from renewable energy and has a negative carbon footprint. This latest hydroelectric project will increase electricity production from hydro sources by 40%. India will also assist in the resumption of work on the main dam structure of 1200 MW at Punatsangchhu.

To promote connectivity for Bhutan and give it easy access to India’s vast markets a new initiative is about to unfold. The Bhutanese border towns of Gelephu and Samtse will be joined with India’s vast railway network shortly. Bhutan intends developing the Gelephu Mindfulness City as a consequence. India will establish an immigration check post at Hatisar, just across from Gelemphu and develop infrastructure on its side of the border.

The two countries signed 3 MoUs during this visit of 11-12 November 2025,  on renewable energy, mental health services, and healthcare.

India had earlier also announced a contribution of Rs 10,000 crores in 2024, towards Bhutan’s Five-Year Plan of development in areas such as roads, agriculture, finance, healthcare.

The railway connectivity with buffer state Bhutan will also help strengthen infrastructure to protect the so-called Chicken Neck  and the Siliguri Corridor overseen by China from the Doklam plateau. India has already strengthened its military presence in the area of the Chicken Neck including the revival of a WWII airport in the area, the placement of troops, missiles, fighter aircraft and other items. It has also been conducting elaborate military exercises in all its border regions to ensure preparedness and smooth coordination between the different arms of the military

This is important because, in addition to China, Bangladesh and Pakistan have also been taking a renewed interest in the Chicken Neck and Siliguri Corridor area, vital for India’s communication and connectivity with its North Eastern States.

Bhutan is not very comfortable with Chinese attention and blandishments towards development and trade, because as a hereditary kingdom it is wary of the powerful Communist dictatorship. However, there are some in its population and political makeup that favour closer ties with China. Bhutan therefore has to perform a careful balancing act between India and China.

Matters have improved somewhat because of China’s rivalry with the US and the weakening of its economy. It is preoccupied with its own troubles and less interested with outside adventurism abroad. Much of the billions it has spent on its belt and road initiatives plus its string of pearls strategy has gone bad.

India, on its part, has identified two chicken neck like areas in Bangladesh with access to the Bay of Bengal in both cases, which makes it vulnerable to outside attack and capture. This could restrain its ability to seek any misadventure against India. India also controls much of the water that flows into Bangladesh and could cancel its water sharing arrangements just as it has with Pakistan. Likewise it is dependent on India for electricity to a large extent. A misadventure could nevertheless happen, because of jingoism and miscalculation, egged on by Pakistan and China.  However neither country may in the end get directly involved nor will any other Islamic country Bangladesh might count on, such as Turkiye.  Myanmar is also going through a troubled relationship with Bangladesh.  So if a military misadventure goes wrong for it, it could trifurcate Bangladesh territory as it stands.

The fact that India is rapidly improving its defences and aatmanirbhar defence preparedness is important. In a demonstrator by way of its highly successful showing in  the  short Operation Sindoor against the combination of Pakistan assisted by China, was most telling. Nobody in the neighbourhood including a China that prefers to use proxies in conflicts, is left sure of itself in any future conflict with India.

India’s exports of armaments and the demand for them has risen sharply since Operation Sindoor. Meanwhile new systems are being added that extend its range, speed, surveillance and technology. A possibility of Operation Sindoor 2.0 in kinetic mode is hovering in the air and could do substantially more damage to Pakistan than the earlier one. The Taliban in Afghanistan are already at war with Pakistan but have mended fences with India.

All this is also not lost on tiny Bhutan as it weighs its options.

(885 words)

November 12^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

US Keen To Sell Its Armaments To India Via Freshly Minted 10 Year Defence Framework Agreement

Is the tide turning with the GOP itself voting against President Trump’s tariff policy? The Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and President Trump himself are both suggesting that a framework trade agreement may be agreed upon between India and the US very soon. It would also probably reduce the punitive tariffs to no more than 15% overall. But, with the mercurial Trump administration one never knows till the signing and the drying of the ink.

While the 50 percent trade tariffs on India persist in the meantime, one of the highest in the world, peppered with constant and diplomatically offensive pressure, a freshly minted agreement on defence cooperation offers unexpected hope. Is this a first step to the classic Trump roll-back or just the sniff of a parcel of deals?  

The framework agreement signed at the Defence Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, the ADMM-Plus, by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and US Secretary for War Pete Hegseth was accompanied by many feel-good statements on the importance of the US-India defence relationship, the rule based order, international maritime security, the Asia-Pacific and so on. But this was at the level of the defence ministers and offers a platform for a U turn.  Because the Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China is no longer a Trump administration priority. Neither is QUAD from all indications.

It does cover real-time intelligence sharing but let us remember America refused GPS coordinates during the Kargil War. The formation of a joint task force for the Indo-Pacific, joint naval patrolling, technology transfer, joint manufacturing of advanced military systems in India are all in the document.

It says America will manufacture drones and the F414 fighter engines in India with partial if not full technology transfer. Stryker armoured vehicles will begin to be produced in India in 2026. This one has been in the air for years and meanwhile India has made a number of good armoured vehicles of its own. The plan is to manufacture the 31 Predator drones on order in India by 2027. America will work with India on Hypersonic missile technology by 2027. It will start developing KN engines in India, and by 2035 America will transfer  complete 5^th generation fighter technology. Can  all this be believed? Why did America decide to draw up such an agreement for the first time ever? Is India meant to cross over into the US camp in delight?

As far as India’s defence cooperation with the US towards its aatmanirbhar programme and technology transfer needs go, the possibilities have always been vague and undefined. This, particularly in contrast with its progress made with France, Israel, and Russia.

However, America is not enamoured with India’s policies of strategic autonomy in order to suit its own national needs. It prefers docile allies who do as they are told. So this is a persistent hindrance to the Indo-US relationship unlike its progress with an apparently compliant Pakistan. Now the Americans are saying Pakistan is only useful for short term goals. But how can one defence agreement turn a persistent more or less anti-India policy on its ear? Americans have been good at saying one thing and doing another rather like the Chinese. Written agreements mean little to both.

America is also busy finding ways to cooperate with China, as the Trmp-Xi meeting in South Korea demonstrates, after its attempts to bully it into submission failed.  

With India, the same thing applies in the minor register, we too won’t be bullied, but India does not enjoy the points of leverage thar China does. So America tends to renege on commitments with impunity, and drag its feet generally. It does not want to lose India altogether from its sphere of influence and so keeps agreements like this one going. If it means business it could start with delivering the F404 engines quickly for a start.

Purchases of American defence equipment by India, often necessary for their technology and quality, have to bear with interminable delays and sometimes renegotiations of cost. The American system has many barriers and checks that take time for high technology equipment, not helped by America not being in a hurry to execute them on time lines agreed.  America does not part with its codes for defence equipment and has been known to use them to cripple aircraft and other weapons at critical times.

Nevertheless, we do have several new defence deals on the anvil and ongoing, in addition to the $25 billion in American military equipment purchases made by India since 2007.  Right now there is a $ 3.8 billionMQ9B armed Predator drone on order for 31 of them, being executed for completion by 2029-30. They say these will now be made in India. The last three of six Apache helicopter gunships are being flown over in a transport aircraft for the Indian Army after a long delay. The order for 99 GE F404-IN20 engines for the Tejas MK1 A executed in 2021 for $716 million is proceeding very slowly after a two-year stoppage in supply.  Only four engines of the 99 ordered have been delivered so far. Another follow-on order for 113 engines worth $ 1 billion is being negotiated and almost ready to be signed.  Yet another order for hundreds of  the GE F414 engine intended for the Tejas MK2 along with an 80% technology transfer and manufacture in India is also being negotiated. Is this defence agreement saying it is through? At what price? To be built in India starting when?

This snail’s pace in these orders and negotiations suggest a strategic dimension in which America is apparently not keen on seeing India make its own fighter aircraft any time soon. But perhaps it also wants to lure us away from the competition.

India is working on alternatives of its own manufacture  for UAVs,drones and fighters and in collaboration of Safran of France even as its fit-for-battle fighter squadrons are much below comfort levels.

India is also advancing a cooperation with Brazil for its Embraer C-390 Millenium transport aircraft in a possible barter deal for an equivalent value of Tejas fighter aircraft and Prachand helicopters.

A collaboration with Airbus is already ongoing for H125 helicopters and C295  military transport aircraft in partnership with the private sector Tata Group.

Russia is very eager to offer its latest Su- 57E stealth fighter aircraft with full technology transfer and production in India in addition to the Sukhoi 30s made under licence in India with the Su-30MK1 largely customised to Indian needs.

Very recently India has signed an agreement with Russia to jointly produce medium sized commercial aircraft, the SJ-100 with full technology transfer in India. The message to America is that India is clearly not restricted by American sanctions imposed on Russia. This again in the context of massive delays in supplying Boeing aircraft to the Indian aviation industry as well as quality concerns highlighted by the tragic Dreamliner crash in Gujarat.

India is already very successful with its BRAHMOS missiles jointly developed with Russia. It extensively uses the Russian S 400 air-shield with more sets on order. Other cooperation with the UK, Russia, Germany and France in the naval engines, propulsion units, nuclear engines, submarines and specialised naval ships are a precursor to more in commercial shipbuilding as a new thrust area.  While American Cummins engines are used in our light Zorowar tanks, India is trying to develop its own as well.

So, it is clear that America is not our only mainstay, even as the Indian aatmanirbhar defence industry is growing very fast and is reflected in more and more export orders as well.

Perhaps America realises these are favourable results of India’s strategic autonomy and wants to ensure it stays in India’s procurement and technology demand game.

In the overall scheme of things however, and on the face of it, this 10 year defence framework agreement is most welcome.

(1312 words)

November 1^st, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee