Two Hundred And Eight  Out Of 243 Seats For the NDA In Bihar Assembly Elections Consolidates Its Power In State And Centre

The June 2024 Lok Sabha election results gave the BJP 240 seats, short of a majority on its own, and occasioned the formation of the NDA government with the support of Nitish Kumar led Bihar, and Chandrababu led Andhra Pradesh. The centre in return poured in investment to strengthen the hands of both allies.

The Opposition, unrealistically, predicted that this troika would last only a short season, and made strenuous efforts to topple the central government. Of course, it could not, and the NDA is going strong nearly a year and a half later.

After this thumping victory in Bihar for the NDA, the stability of the centre till the next general elections in 2029 seems assured as friend and foe acknowledge its import. The last time the NDA won more than 200 seats was in 2010.

An elderly but astute Nitish Kumar will take the oath as Chief Minister of Bihar at the head of his Janata Dal United Party and the NDA for yet another five-year term. This, after 20 years on and off at the helm of Bihar. Any other move will be destabilising.

The Opposition Mahagatbandhan has received a severe drubbing with RJD vastly diminished and Congress practically wiped out. The reasons for the NDA victory are several. When Tejaswi said change is coming, he did not mean a total rout for his own ambitions.

In addition to very effective welfare policies, the female vote for Nitish Babu spoke clearly. His development politics along with help from the centre, including roads, metros, bridges, airport and railway improvements, other infrastructure, have been appreciated. Nitish Kumar has been a clean Chief Minister. There is absolutely, no anti-incumbency seen.

In addition, this win demonstrates a very successful coalition of all the electoral elements in Bihar with the partial exception of the Yadavs and Muslims. This is remarkable, because when a traditional vote bank breaks ranks, the game tends to be over, even for the future.

Within the NDA, the ground work for the elections was  extremely well done including the micro-management, and constituent parties plus influencers like the RSS. None worked at cross purposes.

Despite constant and insidious suggestions that the BJP might want to replace Nitish Kumar as chief minister it is most unlikely. This speculation comes from BJP having won about a dozen more seats than the JDU. The electoral result mathematics this time does not offer sensible alternatives, even if Nitish Kumar wanted to switch sides. Nitish Kumar himself has shown no inclination to do so, but he is an astute politician, and would not take kindly to any move to push him out. But quite apart from the real politics involved, the BJP can be believed that it is not interested in doing any such thing at this time.

A section of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD’s) traditional vote bank too seems to have deserted it, despite many first-time voters. The opprobrium of the ‘Jungle Raj’ associated with the Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi years in power, appears to have drastically brought down the tally of the Tejaswi led RJD. His estranged brother is losing his seat, and so apparently, is he, struggling against the BJP candidate in RJD bastion Raghopur.

The old attitude of issuing threats of violence if the RJD/Mahagatbandhan loses has been prominent during the campaign, and even after the results, with accusations of ‘vote chori’ and allusions to chaos engendered in Bangladesh and Nepal. But this is more wishful thinking.

The erstwhile grim situation in the pre-Nitish Kumar years, has been largely replaced with law and order. Women feel safe. They drive buses and the metro. They can go out after dark. They are happy with the prohibition against alcohol.

And quite possibly, there has been a consolidation of the Hindu vote in the backdrop of an Islamic terrorist attack in New Delhi’s Red Fort area. This could carry over to other forthcoming assembly elections. Some commentary from the redoubtable Union Minister Giriraj Singh of the BJP points towards the hope of a NDA success next in West Bengal.

Further afield, foreign efforts from The US and Europe in addition to the usual Islamic and Communist suspects, have been ongoing to weaken the Modi government. This is unfortunately aided by sections of the Opposition, particularly the Congress Party with nefarious funding from abroad.  There have been moves afoot to engineer regime change, as in Bangladesh and Nepal, and even threaten the life of the prime minister.

This resounding win in Bihar however  reinforces the NDA and underlines its continued popularity and legitimacy. Bihar is an important state, often read alongside Uttar Pradesh as essential for any party that wishes to rule at the centre.

The foreign elements are also upset with India’s rapid economic and military progress, its strategic autonomy, its nationalist, bilateral and multipolar stance in dealings with other countries. The West has been long used to patronising and dictating terms to India before Modi.

India is also a leading light of the G20 or actually G21 now, which it will chair once again in 2026. It is also prominent in BRICS, viewed by the Trump administration as anti-American and the universal use of the US dollar in international trade. India is also a leader of the Global South and very well regarded in Africa, West Asia including Israel, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and South America. By 2028, India will become the 3rd largest major economy in the world largely based on its substantial domestic market. This fact makes it difficult to restrict and bully.

The imminent India-US interim trade deal is likely to be inked shortly without further efforts to pressure fresh concessions out of India. Perhaps more so now. India’s determination to punish those responsible for the latest terror attack and conspiracy has also been duly noted by Pakistan, China and globally.

The Trump administration has also been indicating that the punishing tariffs at a total of 50% are likely to be reduced to about 15%. But in the intervening months, India has found and increased its trade with a number of other countries including the UAE and Britain with which countries it already has free trade agreements. It has also stepped up its efforts to collaborate with countries such as France, Russia and Israel in defence matters, and increased its exports of defence equipment since Operation Sindoor attracted a good deal of foreign interest.

India on its part, enjoying a period of very low inflation, is likely to cut its interest rates further by another 25 bps in December 2025. This will boost the domestic economy and spur investment.

Once the trade interim deal is signed with America, the ones in the pipeline with the EU, New Zealand, Oman and increased bilateral business with Japan, South Korea, Nigeria, Brazil, Guyana and others will no doubt go much faster.

Vladimir Putin of Russia is going to visit India on December 5^th. A number of defence and technology deals are likely to be signed in addition to greater people to people cooperation.

Even the restrictions placed on the American H1B visa for IT personnel in the main are being loosened afresh as realisation dawns in America that they cannot do without Indian know-how in this field.

A lot of this international change of heart is to do with the old adage: ‘If you can’t beat them, you had better join them’. In this endeavour, the Trump administration may be rolling back its strictures, but other countries, perhaps more visionary, have been ahead of the curve for some time.

(1260 words)

November 14^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Warm Bhutan India Ties Reinforced By Modi Visit

Strategically located but land-locked, Bhutan is bordered by both India and China, with the latter regularly negotiating land concessions from the tiny kingdom.

India has traditionally been a  non-predatory support to the kingdom with regular concessionary loans, electricity purchases, and a defence protection pact with it. India and Bhutan also have long-standing cultural ties, and at present has loaned it some sacred  Piprahwa relics of Lord Buddha for a 10 day period during a special Peace Prayer.

Bhutan has always favoured its autonomy and unique ways, including emphasis on its world famous ‘Gross Domestic Happiness’.

 In this current two-day visit, not postponed, despite an Islamic terror attack in New Delhi’s Red Fort area by JeM and ADuG inspired operatives, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and King Jigme Khesar Wangchuk, the fourth Druk Gyalpo, jointly inaugurated the 1020MW  Punatsangchhuu-II hydroelectric project. The occasion also marked the King’s 70^th birthday.

The project inauguration was hailed as a milestone in the vibrant and growing mutually beneficial partnership between India and Bhutan. India also announced a new concessional line of credit of Rs 4,000 crores for Bhutan to fund other energy projects.

Bhutan currently produces all its electricity from renewable energy and has a negative carbon footprint. This latest hydroelectric project will increase electricity production from hydro sources by 40%. India will also assist in the resumption of work on the main dam structure of 1200 MW at Punatsangchhu.

To promote connectivity for Bhutan and give it easy access to India’s vast markets a new initiative is about to unfold. The Bhutanese border towns of Gelephu and Samtse will be joined with India’s vast railway network shortly. Bhutan intends developing the Gelephu Mindfulness City as a consequence. India will establish an immigration check post at Hatisar, just across from Gelemphu and develop infrastructure on its side of the border.

The two countries signed 3 MoUs during this visit of 11-12 November 2025,  on renewable energy, mental health services, and healthcare.

India had earlier also announced a contribution of Rs 10,000 crores in 2024, towards Bhutan’s Five-Year Plan of development in areas such as roads, agriculture, finance, healthcare.

The railway connectivity with buffer state Bhutan will also help strengthen infrastructure to protect the so-called Chicken Neck  and the Siliguri Corridor overseen by China from the Doklam plateau. India has already strengthened its military presence in the area of the Chicken Neck including the revival of a WWII airport in the area, the placement of troops, missiles, fighter aircraft and other items. It has also been conducting elaborate military exercises in all its border regions to ensure preparedness and smooth coordination between the different arms of the military

This is important because, in addition to China, Bangladesh and Pakistan have also been taking a renewed interest in the Chicken Neck and Siliguri Corridor area, vital for India’s communication and connectivity with its North Eastern States.

Bhutan is not very comfortable with Chinese attention and blandishments towards development and trade, because as a hereditary kingdom it is wary of the powerful Communist dictatorship. However, there are some in its population and political makeup that favour closer ties with China. Bhutan therefore has to perform a careful balancing act between India and China.

Matters have improved somewhat because of China’s rivalry with the US and the weakening of its economy. It is preoccupied with its own troubles and less interested with outside adventurism abroad. Much of the billions it has spent on its belt and road initiatives plus its string of pearls strategy has gone bad.

India, on its part, has identified two chicken neck like areas in Bangladesh with access to the Bay of Bengal in both cases, which makes it vulnerable to outside attack and capture. This could restrain its ability to seek any misadventure against India. India also controls much of the water that flows into Bangladesh and could cancel its water sharing arrangements just as it has with Pakistan. Likewise it is dependent on India for electricity to a large extent. A misadventure could nevertheless happen, because of jingoism and miscalculation, egged on by Pakistan and China.  However neither country may in the end get directly involved nor will any other Islamic country Bangladesh might count on, such as Turkiye.  Myanmar is also going through a troubled relationship with Bangladesh.  So if a military misadventure goes wrong for it, it could trifurcate Bangladesh territory as it stands.

The fact that India is rapidly improving its defences and aatmanirbhar defence preparedness is important. In a demonstrator by way of its highly successful showing in  the  short Operation Sindoor against the combination of Pakistan assisted by China, was most telling. Nobody in the neighbourhood including a China that prefers to use proxies in conflicts, is left sure of itself in any future conflict with India.

India’s exports of armaments and the demand for them has risen sharply since Operation Sindoor. Meanwhile new systems are being added that extend its range, speed, surveillance and technology. A possibility of Operation Sindoor 2.0 in kinetic mode is hovering in the air and could do substantially more damage to Pakistan than the earlier one. The Taliban in Afghanistan are already at war with Pakistan but have mended fences with India.

All this is also not lost on tiny Bhutan as it weighs its options.

(885 words)

November 12^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

US Keen To Sell Its Armaments To India Via Freshly Minted 10 Year Defence Framework Agreement

Is the tide turning with the GOP itself voting against President Trump’s tariff policy? The Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and President Trump himself are both suggesting that a framework trade agreement may be agreed upon between India and the US very soon. It would also probably reduce the punitive tariffs to no more than 15% overall. But, with the mercurial Trump administration one never knows till the signing and the drying of the ink.

While the 50 percent trade tariffs on India persist in the meantime, one of the highest in the world, peppered with constant and diplomatically offensive pressure, a freshly minted agreement on defence cooperation offers unexpected hope. Is this a first step to the classic Trump roll-back or just the sniff of a parcel of deals?  

The framework agreement signed at the Defence Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, the ADMM-Plus, by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and US Secretary for War Pete Hegseth was accompanied by many feel-good statements on the importance of the US-India defence relationship, the rule based order, international maritime security, the Asia-Pacific and so on. But this was at the level of the defence ministers and offers a platform for a U turn.  Because the Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China is no longer a Trump administration priority. Neither is QUAD from all indications.

It does cover real-time intelligence sharing but let us remember America refused GPS coordinates during the Kargil War. The formation of a joint task force for the Indo-Pacific, joint naval patrolling, technology transfer, joint manufacturing of advanced military systems in India are all in the document.

It says America will manufacture drones and the F414 fighter engines in India with partial if not full technology transfer. Stryker armoured vehicles will begin to be produced in India in 2026. This one has been in the air for years and meanwhile India has made a number of good armoured vehicles of its own. The plan is to manufacture the 31 Predator drones on order in India by 2027. America will work with India on Hypersonic missile technology by 2027. It will start developing KN engines in India, and by 2035 America will transfer  complete 5^th generation fighter technology. Can  all this be believed? Why did America decide to draw up such an agreement for the first time ever? Is India meant to cross over into the US camp in delight?

As far as India’s defence cooperation with the US towards its aatmanirbhar programme and technology transfer needs go, the possibilities have always been vague and undefined. This, particularly in contrast with its progress made with France, Israel, and Russia.

However, America is not enamoured with India’s policies of strategic autonomy in order to suit its own national needs. It prefers docile allies who do as they are told. So this is a persistent hindrance to the Indo-US relationship unlike its progress with an apparently compliant Pakistan. Now the Americans are saying Pakistan is only useful for short term goals. But how can one defence agreement turn a persistent more or less anti-India policy on its ear? Americans have been good at saying one thing and doing another rather like the Chinese. Written agreements mean little to both.

America is also busy finding ways to cooperate with China, as the Trmp-Xi meeting in South Korea demonstrates, after its attempts to bully it into submission failed.  

With India, the same thing applies in the minor register, we too won’t be bullied, but India does not enjoy the points of leverage thar China does. So America tends to renege on commitments with impunity, and drag its feet generally. It does not want to lose India altogether from its sphere of influence and so keeps agreements like this one going. If it means business it could start with delivering the F404 engines quickly for a start.

Purchases of American defence equipment by India, often necessary for their technology and quality, have to bear with interminable delays and sometimes renegotiations of cost. The American system has many barriers and checks that take time for high technology equipment, not helped by America not being in a hurry to execute them on time lines agreed.  America does not part with its codes for defence equipment and has been known to use them to cripple aircraft and other weapons at critical times.

Nevertheless, we do have several new defence deals on the anvil and ongoing, in addition to the $25 billion in American military equipment purchases made by India since 2007.  Right now there is a $ 3.8 billionMQ9B armed Predator drone on order for 31 of them, being executed for completion by 2029-30. They say these will now be made in India. The last three of six Apache helicopter gunships are being flown over in a transport aircraft for the Indian Army after a long delay. The order for 99 GE F404-IN20 engines for the Tejas MK1 A executed in 2021 for $716 million is proceeding very slowly after a two-year stoppage in supply.  Only four engines of the 99 ordered have been delivered so far. Another follow-on order for 113 engines worth $ 1 billion is being negotiated and almost ready to be signed.  Yet another order for hundreds of  the GE F414 engine intended for the Tejas MK2 along with an 80% technology transfer and manufacture in India is also being negotiated. Is this defence agreement saying it is through? At what price? To be built in India starting when?

This snail’s pace in these orders and negotiations suggest a strategic dimension in which America is apparently not keen on seeing India make its own fighter aircraft any time soon. But perhaps it also wants to lure us away from the competition.

India is working on alternatives of its own manufacture  for UAVs,drones and fighters and in collaboration of Safran of France even as its fit-for-battle fighter squadrons are much below comfort levels.

India is also advancing a cooperation with Brazil for its Embraer C-390 Millenium transport aircraft in a possible barter deal for an equivalent value of Tejas fighter aircraft and Prachand helicopters.

A collaboration with Airbus is already ongoing for H125 helicopters and C295  military transport aircraft in partnership with the private sector Tata Group.

Russia is very eager to offer its latest Su- 57E stealth fighter aircraft with full technology transfer and production in India in addition to the Sukhoi 30s made under licence in India with the Su-30MK1 largely customised to Indian needs.

Very recently India has signed an agreement with Russia to jointly produce medium sized commercial aircraft, the SJ-100 with full technology transfer in India. The message to America is that India is clearly not restricted by American sanctions imposed on Russia. This again in the context of massive delays in supplying Boeing aircraft to the Indian aviation industry as well as quality concerns highlighted by the tragic Dreamliner crash in Gujarat.

India is already very successful with its BRAHMOS missiles jointly developed with Russia. It extensively uses the Russian S 400 air-shield with more sets on order. Other cooperation with the UK, Russia, Germany and France in the naval engines, propulsion units, nuclear engines, submarines and specialised naval ships are a precursor to more in commercial shipbuilding as a new thrust area.  While American Cummins engines are used in our light Zorowar tanks, India is trying to develop its own as well.

So, it is clear that America is not our only mainstay, even as the Indian aatmanirbhar defence industry is growing very fast and is reflected in more and more export orders as well.

Perhaps America realises these are favourable results of India’s strategic autonomy and wants to ensure it stays in India’s procurement and technology demand game.

In the overall scheme of things however, and on the face of it, this 10 year defence framework agreement is most welcome.

(1312 words)

November 1^st, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee