Erstwhile Globocop And International Bankroller America Now Wants Reciprocity To Make America Great Again

President elect Donald J Trump wants to ‘Make America Great Again’. This stated ambition and powerful campaign slogan that in Trump’s scheme of things means making America extraordinarily wealthy again, has a great number of moving parts.

In this preparatory period leading up to his inauguration on January 20^th, 2025, he has been appointing a large number of capable loyalists to key positions in his forthcoming administration. That some of his key picks such as his intelligence chief, his FBI director and the office to cut wasteful government spending, happen to be American Hindus of Indian extraction, is remarkable.

Stopping both the wars in the Middle East and Europe is central to his early policy-making along with strong measures to strengthen the US economy. Trump is particularly provoked by the fact that a number of countries including, China, Brazil and India impose steep tariffs on US goods, some as high as 150%. He has made it clear that he too will impose tariffs likewise on imports from such countries unless there are changes in the spirit of ‘reciprocity’.

For the US economy, Trump envisages a revival of American manufacturing, new high tariffs on direct imports from China which enjoys an obscene trade surplus, as well as other countries such as Mexico and Canada that China funnels its goods through, in an attempt to evade the tariffs imposed earlier.

Trump also wants reciprocity from perceived friends in Europe, the EU, NATO, as well as strategic partners such as India, Taiwan, and an economic/military rival like China.  

Allies of America across the Atlantic, the UN and its bodies, and other international institutions such as the key international lending agencies, the World Bank, IMF, Asian Development Bank have long been used to America footing the lion’s share of the bill for most things. The same applies to the various UN Peace Keeping Forces in the many troubled parts of the earth.

And all this, without any pay-back or reciprocity for America, beyond a perfunctory thank you, and a degree of deferential behaviour from allies such as the UK. It is as if the security of the free world is principally America’s business ever since WWII. Perhaps this is because it maintains a formidable military machine and has massive annual armed forces/armaments budgets to keep its No.1 position. It also maintains the world’s largest covert apparatus in the form of the CIA for the world, and the FBI domestically.

Other NATO allies have long contributed token amounts financially at best, and provided some supporting forces to joint operations. In Trump1.0, the president exhorted all NATO allies to contribute their proportionate share and raise defence budgets to at least 2% of their GDPs. Protecting Europe, including Ukraine, should not be principally an American endeavour according to Trump’s world-view. This has made many allies uncomfortable at the prospect of a free lunch coming to an end. Others are apprehensive about their ability to finance their own security.

Donald Trump does not like this long-playing scheme of things, particularly since American debt is now at twice its GDP, and notionally every American citizen is carrying $ 100,000 of this debt. The US dollar is used as a peg for a number of international currencies such as the Saudi Rial. And because it is the main currency of international trade, American sanctions against countries like Russia and Iran have had a strong bite.  Russian assets worth billions of US dollars have been frozen and confiscated. This kind of high-handedness makes many other countries holding US Bonds and other investments apprehensive. It is a reason for seeking alternative trading mechanisms.

At the same time international dollar demand keeps interest rates payable by the US on its gargantuan external debt lower than it might have been. Interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank, which has begun its cutting cycle at long last, have the potential to weaken the dollar, making imports costlier but making US exports more competitive. Rate cuts should also stimulate the US domestic economy as inflation appears to be moderating.

Trump has proclaimed on his own Truth Social platform very recently that he will not allow America to be ‘suckered’ henceforth. Anyone in the expanded BRICS, (read China in the main), that is trying to develop its own BRICS currency to get away from the US dollar in international trade, runs the risk of 100% US tariffs imposed. This would make it well-nigh impossible to sell to the US.

The strong US dollar as the global reserve currency, as well as the currency of choice for international trade has been a basic pillar of the world’s financial system since the aftermath of WWII. India readily recognises this fact of life, and has made it clear at BRICS that it does not support universal ‘dedollarisation’. Coming up with a BRICS currency of its own, if it isn’t the Chinese Renmimbi, not acceptable to India, is not easy, given the sizes and uneven financial state of the BRICS members.  

And yet, the US dollar has declined as a global reserve currency from 71% in 1999 to 59% in 2023, making room for a basket of currencies. The Euro is now held at 20%. Various other convertible currencies including the Yen account for another 19%. However, the Chinese Renminbi as a reserve currency is still struggling at 3%, up from a mere 1% in 2016. This may be a trebling statistically, but is far from where it wants to be.

India, which still does not have a fully convertible rupee, will, and has been trading with countries on a bilateral basis when both prefer to use their own currencies. It has done so notably with Russia, as the latter is working under stringent Western sanctions for its war with Ukraine. India has bought a large quantity of petroleum from Russia at very competitive prices in roubles/rupees, even as it continues to buy oil and gas from other nations using the US dollar.

India imports 80% of its ever-growing demand for oil and gas, and is the biggest international buyer next to China. China too has been using the Yuan/Saudi Rial for its oil purchases lately.

America is fuel self-sufficient, and buys internationally only in order to conserve its own reserves.

Is Trump’s latest threat of 100% tariffs to BRICS likely to be implemented? Are unilateral sanctions actually hastening the reducing influence of the US dollar?

Too many overlapping tariffs are likely to harm American interests by raising domestic consumer prices. In order to keep American interests first, President Trump might have to balance his initiatives in Trump 2.0 and distinguish sharply between friend and foe.

(1,106 words)

December 2^nd, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Canadian Diplomacy Towards India Is A Strange Game

Diplomacy can be a strange game. On the one hand, Justin Trudeau lines up next to Joe Biden and Narendra Modi at the G20 Summit in Brazil for a group photo, smiling gamely into the camera. On the other hand the Canadian security agencies accuse first the Indian ambassador and his consular staff in Ottawa, then the Indian Home Minister Amit Shah, and now the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of complicity and prior knowledge of the murder of Khalistani terrorists on Canadian soil.

For some months now, indeed from before the earlier G20 Summit in New Delhi a year ago, this has been the refrain from Justin Trudeau’s Canada. Trudeau made public pronouncements accusing India in the Canadian parliament, based on his intelligence reports, rather than proof or evidence. Both he and his foreign minister urged the Indians to cooperate with Canadian agencies in investigations. They threatened to use the pressure of their allies in the G7 and elsewhere.

Since then, despite multiple Indian requests, nothing by way of substance let alone proof has been offered. But the accusations have continued, and become ever more strident. Both sides reduced their diplomatic presence in each other’s countries including at the senior most levels.

Canada has been nominally backed in its hostile agenda by the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence group that has the US, Britain, Australia, and New Zealand, in addition to Canada, as they are its members.

India has made a series of extradition requests to Canada to return various  newly-minted Canadian nationals ( mostly of Sikh origin) or other Indians from Punjab and elsewhere who have run away to Canada, wanted in India as terrorists, murderers, drug smugglers, gun runners, extortionists, people traffickers, money launderers and worse. All of this has fallen on deaf ears. The Canadian government is content to allow Khalistanis in all their criminal and extremist hues to run free, employing some of them in their own  bureaucracies and police forces.

A Canadian political party with over 20 seats in parliament and populated by ethnic erstwhile Sikhs that back the Khalistani movement is allowed to retain considerable influence in mainstream politics, both as a supporter (now from outside the government), of the ruling Liberal Party, and also the opposition Conservative Party. So much so, that a recent rally of Khalistanis demanded that Whites and Jews should return to Europe leaving Canada to its ‘native’ Khalistani population.

In India meanwhile, a large number of Sikhs are saying the Khalistanis are not Sikhs at all and have no business to masquerade as such. The Khalistani alignment with Pakistan’s ISI and Chinese intelligence agencies have nothing to do with Indian Sikhs, and indeed the overwhelming bulk of Canadian Sikhs.   They should not be allowed to use Sikh symbols without any permission of the Sikh Panth in Amritsar, and many of the Khalistani publicity seeking antics and pronouncements are deeply offensive to the majority of Indian Sikhs.

Their frequent attacks on Hindu temples in Canada, Australia,Britain and elsewhere are condemned by the Indian Sikhs who regard Hindus as their brothers in the faith, with many Punjabi families contributing one or the other child into the Sikh faith.

So if the Canadian backing of the Khalistanis residing on their soil is an attempt to balkanise India alongside Pakistan’s ISI, the Chinese intelligence agencies, elements of the deep state in the US,the CIA and others in the Five Eyes, they are bound to fail.

One of the main reasons apart from the shallow support that the Khalistanis enjoy in Canada and elsewhere, is the huge popularity of the Modi government largely identified with Hindus. The BJP/NDA is not only the dominant political party in government in India, but the prime minister’s personal popularity is palpable both in-country and around the world.

It is not only the Indian diaspora that celebrates the Modi phenomenon wherever he goes, but leaders around the world too, in the G7, the G20, BRICS and elsewhere.

Trudeau meanwhile is steadily losing popularity in Canada because of his ineffective handling of the economy, high prices, rising unemployment, a redundant immigration policy, his political mistakes vis a vis both China and India, and his obdurate backing of a Khalistani movement that has no chance of success.

A constant upping of the ante by accusing the Indian home minister and the prime minister is probably a sign of his desperation. India meanwhile is unperturbed, and refusing to over react to these Canadian provocations. It is able to see good relations with Canada from a longer-term perspective beyond the rule of the Justin Trudeau government. Most of the bilateral trade between the two countries continues undisturbed and the investments of te Canadian pension funds in the Indian stock market are more or less intact. There has been some selling in line with FPI selling in general but nothing more marked.

The Trudeau government has more immediate issues. It will have to pass its budget through parliament in February 2025, and face a general election in or -before October 2025.

The election of Donald Trump in America is probably worrisome for him as the former is not known to be a Trudeau fan. America under Trump will likely not support Trudeau’s bizarre politics with regard to India. India can afford to ignore Trudeau and wait out this unusual brand of diplomacy.

 (887 words)

November 20^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee