Emerging Good News For Military Make In India

Emerging Good News For Military Make In India

For the first time, the contours of a wide-ranging defence manufacturing capability for applications on land, sea, air, and now space, is beginning to emerge in this country.  The number of such projects provides proof that initiatives must have been taken as soon as this government took over. Over the last five years, some substantial projects started earlier were completed. These include the indigenous Arihant nuclear submarine and the Scorpene Class Indo-French conventional ones, the odd stealth frigate, some coast guard boats.

But that Make in India defence manufacturing is a vital strategic necessity was not felt very acutely before 2014.

The reason for a markedly changed reality now can only be a demonstrated political will on the part of Prime Minister and consequently in the Ministry of Defence.

The Army’s surgical strike in PoK in 2016, and the air strikes in Pakistan’s Balakot circa 2019, signal a marked change in India’s policy on tackling cross-border terrorism.

We have gone from a Gandhian turn-the-other-cheek to both eyes-for-an-eye, delivered with audacity, surprise, in the style of an Israeli preemptive strike.

The UNSC Western powers sat up at this last air strike and the possibilities it represented. Could India reign in the Afghanistan-Pakistan-Taliban problem by weakening Pakistan? Could it check China?

Others, affected by the South China Sea imbroglio and other Chinese high-handedness in the Asia Pacific were also enthused. The pattern was forming, and they remembered the successfully handled Doklam stand-off too.

The diplomatic support from America, Britain and France in particular, has been unprecedented.  But, with the rejection of the decades old policy of “strategic restraint”, the need for a sophisticated and indigenous  military machine has assumed a new urgency.

So it is not a minute too soon, that there is a flurry of good news on this front. The projects are often joint ventures. Certainly, they have some vital imported parts in the interests of ensuring modernity, high-technology, speed, economy, and so as not to reinvent the wheel.

The hitherto ponderous Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), ostensibly working on the Tejas project since the 1980s, has just delivered its 16^th single-engined Tejas Light Fighter aircraft (LCA) to the IAF. And it is on schedule.

HAL has an order for 40 of the LCAs in ready for combat configuration, and 8 trainers. The Tejas LCA recently demonstrated its prowess in the IAF’s Gagan Shakti exercise by firing the Air-to-Air BVR Derby missile.

The nimble fighter has also just participated at the air-show at Langkawi (LIMA-2019) between 26^th and 30^th March. It is being considered for purchase by the Malaysian armed forces in competition with the South Korean FA-50 Golden Eagle, and the Chinese-Pakistani JF -17 Thunder.  

The Tejas Mark 2 version is under development already. It will be a medium weight category fighter at 17.5 tonnes, up from the LCA’s 14.5 tonnes. It will be inducted, like the LCA, into the IAF and the Indian Navy. The Mark 2 specifications are based on a number of additional capabilities demanded by the IAF.

India has recently concluded price negotiations to acquire 62 numbers of C295 transport aircraft from Airbus to replace its vintage Avro 748 M transports. The agreement is expected to be signed by the government after the general elections. The Euro 2.8 billion deal envisages India assembly and increasing degrees of indigenization of all except the first 16 aircraft to arrive fully built.

The Gun Carriage Factory (GCF), Jabalpur has just handed over the first six Dhanush  155 mm x 45 Cal FH towed artillery to the Indian Army on March 26^th.  These new artillery pieces are indigenized to 81% and subsequent deliveries in late 2019 will achieve 91% indigenization. It has major upgraded features over the earlier 155/39 cal,FH 77 B02 Guns. This is a first delivery against an order to manufacture and provide the Indian Army 114 such field guns.

India will also get a Made in India M777  light-weight Howitzer by the end of 2019, when Mahindra  Defence rolls out its first such weapon in collaboration with Britain’s BAE Systems. India has ordered 145 of these  from BAE in a $750 million deal.  Only 25 of the 145 guns will be imported fully-built, and 5 of these have already been handed over to the Indian Army. The remaining 120 will be assembled, tested and integrated by the joint venture in India.

Meanwhile, India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant is being equipped with an India-made C0mbat Management System (CMS). This, most important nerve centre of the carrier, has been developed jointly by Tata Power Strategic Engineering Division and Electronics System Engineering Establishment and M/s MARS of Russia.

It has just been inducted into the Indian Navy after putting it through rigorous trials. This Naval CMS integrates the aircraft carrier’s sensors, weapons, delivery systems , data links, instruction lines to staff etc.

This 37,500 tonne Aircraft carrier, which is itself more than 80% indigenous, is in its final phase of construction at the Kochi shipyard. A second, much bigger aircraft carrier is to follow the Vikrant into indigenous manufacture, after the former is inducted in mid 2020.

The latest is India’s entry into the realm of space warfare. A jubilant Prime Minister Modi informed the nation about the successful A-SAT strike. America gently cautioned India against creating more space debris.  China, with its multiple low orbiting satellites watching the LAC realized it had just lost a major strategic advantage. Pakistan, on its part, nervously complained about the militarization of space.   

Not only is India just the 4^th country with this advanced capability, but the technology was entirely home grown at the DRDO and the ISRO. The secret strike programme dubbed Mission Shakti, was authorized by the Modi government in 2017.

India can now match America, Russia and China in being able to destroy a live, low-orbiting satellite in space. The future possibilities of conducting top down or lateral space warfare is now within India’s grasp, provided it doesn’t stop at this one test.

The nuclear triad of land, air, and sea-based strike capability has been added to, Given India’s ability to kill satellites in space, launch  heavy payloads and  ICBMs, the final frontier has also been breached.

The induction of the first four Chinook heavy-lift helicopters from America recently will be followed by more on order, again with a Made In India component. Likewise various other weapons systems such as the Apache helicopters, armed and unarmed drones, and a vastly better grade of sniper and assault rifle, including the Kalashnikov 213 are on their way.

There are India made missile shields which have been already been deployed even as the Russian S-400 missile defence system is on order. Additionally, American missile shields too are being considered, particularly for interoperability between the two militaries.

The military collaboration with Israel is ubiquitous, extensive and intensive and  has been tried and tested in battle. Israel has helped India in preemption, surveillance, fencing, provision of missiles, ammunition, bombs, drones, and intelligence sharing.

India is clearly busy modernizing and upgrading its own military capacities. One significant plank of Make in India is to make superior weapons in -country, but economically.

Inevitably, as this rolls out, there will be emerging opportunities in weapons and systems export. Countries like Vietnam, Chile, Malaysia, the UAE have already shown interest for different things. We could, quite easily, export the Indo--Russian Brahmos missiles in particular. These exports could become major hard currency earners for the country.

The knock- on effect of this, will be to form a virtuous cycle. India will have greater resources on hand for research, design, upgradation, collaboration, infrastructure enhancement, and constant modernization of our own weapons’ capabilities.

(1,274 words)

For: My Nation

March 30^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

Competitive Poverty Alleviation Is The Ticket

Competitive Poverty Alleviation Is The Ticket

Will the proposed Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY), the subject of both consternation and heated discussion, be a game-changer for the Congress?  Rahul Gandhi likes to think so. He calls the Rs. 72,000 per annum dole for an estimated 25 crore poor people (five crore families), who earn Rs.12,000 or less a month, “a surgical strike on poverty”.

He says, with his usual disregard for the facts, and a pitch at being a Robin Hood figure in a Gandhi cap, that if the Modi government gives away money to the rich, the Congress would do so to the poor. That there is little hope of Congress coming back to power on its own in 2019 is another little factoid he chooses to ignore. But for the moment, he thinks he has found the magic bullet.

Gandhi says Congress will implement the fiscal mathematics busting scheme if it “comes to power”. He says Congress has consulted leading economists. Celebrity economists Angus Deaton and Thomas Piketty are mentioned and Raghuram Rajan too.  Rajan has gone on record saying that NYAY is fiscally imprudent and very hard to implement, but also that space should be made for such schemes.  Nobel laureate Amartya Sen’s poverty alleviation economics may also have been an influence on the contours of NYAY.   

But as timings of announcements go, is what is good for the goose also good for the gander? If not, then how is this highly politicised announcement, with its eye firmly on swaying the voter, not a violation of the code of conduct?

At the same time, the Congress has been complaining to the Election Commission (EC) about the release of the Modi biopic and the Tashkent Files soon after , the latter being a film on the rumoured Congress conspiracy to murder Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and clear the path for Indira Gandhi. The movies, slated to be released in the first half of April, even as some places go to the polls on April 11^th, are said, by Congress, to be an attempt to influence the electorate through the election season up to May.

The Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar has been quick to sharply criticise both the content and the timing of NYAY. And it has promptly earned him a notice for an explanation of his comments from the EC.

But the competitive welfarism with an eye to the 2019 general elections has not begun with NYAY. The Modi government’s humungous universal health insurance programme, Ayushman Bharat-National Health Protection Scheme (AB-NHPS) announced on 15^th August 2018, covers about 50 crore people, from the poorest of the poor. This scheme, with a government funded insurance cover of Rs. 5 lakhs on a floater basis per family, for hospitalization and secondary and tertiary care, has already benefited millions.

The Modi government, has in recent times since, also unveiled a universal pension plan for  informal sector workers - the Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maandhan(PMSYM) that will, over the next five years, embrace some 10 crore people. And then there is the PM-Kisan Scheme,  with a cash dole of Rs. 6,000 per annum paid in three tranches, helping an estimated 12 crore small farmers with land holdings of 2 acres or less. The first tranche of Rs. 2,000 each, costing the exchequer Rs. 75,000 crores, has already been paid into the bank accounts of the small and marginal farmers.

Will Rahul Gandhi’s brand new attempt at mega populism put Narendra Modi’s modest dole in the shade?  Early reports show cautious anticipation of the proposed freebie along with skepticism in equal measure. The Congress promises of small farmer farm loan waivers have virtually not been implemented in the states it has recently won.

And then there are a clamour of questions. Is this a full dose scheme of Rs.72,000 for all the eligible as some Congress people have said, or a top-up based on the sliding scale of actual earnings that Rahul Gandhi has announced? How will earnings in cash be verified? 

How will the data on applications and qualifiers be handled? How much inefficiency and middle-man corruption are we going to see? Will NYAY cannibalise the federal allocations for other programmes? Will it flounder on the shores of various states, reluctant to pony up their share, just as it has happened with Modi’s health insurance scheme in West Bengal and other states? Will it become a bone of contention at all, because a UPA win and government formation in May 2019 is far from certain?

It will cost at least 2% of GDP, almost a fifth of India’s tax collections at present, or 13% of the Union Budget –some 3.6 lakh crores. Consider than the defence budget is at 11% of the Union Budget now, though many purchases of equipment and weaponry are being paid for outside the annual budget allocations.

Congress has been busy reimagining itself as the main contender despite several headwinds. Its position and acceptability as leader within a future winning UPA line-up is uncertain. Will it better its 2014 tally and if so by how much? And even if it is the single largest component of the UPA, Rahul Gandhi himself may have to settle for a back-seat for the sake of cohesion. How many of his partners, let alone those in the NDA will be willing to implement NYAY after the elections? But it appears that the main purpose of NYAY is to win the elections rather than worry about its implementation.

Modi’s welfare and poverty alleviation schemes, including many started by the UPA, have taken care to not adversely impact the deficits or inflation. More money has also been poured into long-standing schemes like MNREGA in successive Union Budgets over the last five years. And yet, inflation has more than halved. The fiscal deficit has been lowered from 5.1% to 3.4%, and was headed towards 3.2% if it wasn’t for the recent farmer dole announced in the Interim Union Budget of February 2019.  

Congress, on the other hand, is banking on future growth in the economy to  cushion the impact of NYAY. It ignores the inflationary effect of minimum universal incomes seen in other countries, and the economists that would argue doles are unproductive expenditure.

The broader picture of a socialist hangover made up of subsidies and grants is a historical legacy that is very hard to shake off. This even though it could destroy the economic health of the country and ruin its international ratings in a global environment. And yet, with a huge and ever growing population of over 1.3 billion, poverty alleviation in all its forms must be a major goal of any ruling dispensation. Besides, the electorate has grown used to the government and opposition wooing it with benefits.

There is a case however to achieve a balance between economic imperatives and populism. The Modi government has done this admirably, but the Congress has traditionally worried less about the effects of its largesse. Is the electorate mature enough to see through the short- term benefits of doles which are invariably inadequate as contrasted with emphasis on growth and development?

Past experience would suggest otherwise, but the country has a new demographic of young, aspirational people. Will they be able to outweigh the appetite for benefits from the poor? Did they vote for Modi in 2014 because of his promised benefits or his vision for Vikas? Does the majority that supports him as prime minister today do so because they expect him to accelerate development?

It certainly appears so, with considerations of national security also playing an important part, particularly when contrasted with the weak showing of the various other leaders in the Opposition.  Even then, it is clear neither side is taking any chances on its competitive welfarism.

It is advantage Modi as the incumbent prime minister who is seen as tireless and honest. As someone who has curbed corruption and delivered in good measure on several of his promises.

Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, has absolutely no track record in governance. Nevertheless, Congress has ruled this country for decades in the name of the poor, with indifferent results on their upliftment. For a scion of the grand old party to not use the allure of this tried and tested formula on voters would be unlikely.

The question is, has the country decided it wants much more than a modest hand out promised at election time?

(1,400 words)

For: The Sunday Guardian

March 27^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

BOOK REVIEW: CHARLES SOBHRAJ BY RAAMESH KOIRALA

BOOK REVIEW

TITLE: CHARLES SOBHRAJ- INSIDE THE HEART OF THE BIKINI KILLER

AUTHOR: RAAMESH KOIRALA

PUBLISHER: RUPA, 2018

PRICE:  Rs. 500/- HARDBACK

The Mysterious Mind Of A Master Criminal

Author Raamesh Koirala is a renowned cardiac surgeon in Nepal. He successfully treated Charles Sobhraj’s precarious heart condition in 2017.  This was 14 years after Sobhraj was first arrested and jailed in Kathmandu in 2003. And as he replaced a number of the valves in Sobhraj’s heart, Koirala became fascinated enough with the master criminal to write this book.

Much of what Koirala writes about Sobhraj is on his “criminal psychology”, his utter lack of remorse, his narcissism as a psychopath. And the long trail of alleged murders in several countries without apparent motive. He revisits some of the alleged murders and disappearances in other countries to establish how Sobhraj sometimes stole both the passports and the identities of his victims. He then believed that he was whoever he became.

Sobhraj got away with many of his alleged murders because of circumstantial evidence, a lack of witnesses, and his clear-eyed and well presented professions of innocence in court. Sobhraj also took a great interest in the law wherever he was accused, reading up on it, and guided his lawyers on the conduct of his trials. However, in Nepal, in the latter day, he seems to have met his match.

The big question that Koirala asks Sobhraj in this book however is- why did he return to Nepal at all where murder charges awaited him, even after three decades? It earned him a life sentence for a murder going back to 1975, and more cases were framed as the time went on.

Koirala writes : “In 2003, there were nearly 190 countries in the world. Charles Sobhraj was free and living a happy life in France. He was a celebrity, believed to be making a hefty sum of money from interviews and photo sessions. He even had a million dollar contract with an Indian filmmaker who wanted to make his biopic. His jail term in India was over; the Thai police had closed the cases of the murders. Only one country in the world had active cases of murder against him-Nepal”.

A would-be biopic on Sobhraj is probably less interesting, despite the alleged multiple druggings, murders, and robberies on the hippie trail of the seventies, in India, Thailand, Nepal - than what is revealed in this book .

Sobhraj tells all, quite casually, but Koirala frames the revelations in a fantasy sequence that he calls a “dream” about a TV interview he conducts with the master criminal. Wisely perhaps, because what Sobhraj puts out is uncorroborated.

He says the real reason Sobhraj had come to Nepal- he insisted for the first time in 2003, in Sobhraj’s own words,  was because:“ I wanted to organize  an undercover business meeting of some guys from the Taliban with a Chinese heroin producer in the Golden Triads. And second one was a meeting with top brass from India”.

He claims that he knew Masood Azhar, the man much discussed today as the mastermind of JeM, from their time in Tihar together:: “ He introduced me to all the Taliban leaders. That’s actually why I visited Afghanistan several times”.

He further tells Koirala :  “I had good relations with the Taliban and the Al Qaeda You know I even had a nuclear deal with Saddam Hussein… Yes I had a business contract to supply red mercury to Iraq and had already made a deal with a Russian group. But then 2003 happened”.

Koirala was hard- pressed to determine if Sobhraj meant the “attack on Iraq by the USA” or his own 2003 arrest in Nepal.

Sobhraj claimed to have been in touch also with the CIA, warning them about the possibility of 9/11.  And that he was in Nepal to meet with India’s Intelligence Bureau (IB), with which organization he was in good terms since: “ It was me who facilitated the return of that hijacked Indian Airlines plane from Kandahar”.

And to heap more preposterousness on the gullible, Sobhraj says: “Advani escaped an assassination due to my tip”.

Raamesh Koirala who mixes the tale with medical talk, a little politics, and his love of trekking in the mountains, does not think Charles Sobhraj will ever be released from  jail in Nepal.

(696 words)

For: The Sunday Pioneer AGENDA BOOKS

March 19^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

Modi Gets Results From A Kong Strength Foreign Policy

Modi Gets Results From A Kong Strength Foreign Policy

External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj recently declared in a speech in New Delhi, that India had visited 189 countries at the level of the prime minister, the foreign minister, the president or the vice president, over the last five years. The sharp ramping up of policy level contact is what she emphasised.

This is unprecedented diplomatic outreach, with an energetic King Kong style embrace of the world. This has resulted in global responsiveness to Indian leadership in a number of instances. As well as appreciation of India’s concerns - money laundering, fugitive businessmen, exchange of intelligence, manufacturing, IT collaborations, amongst which, the scourge of global terrorism has always found prominent mention.

Some of these countries had never received a high level visit from India before; and some like Nepal, situated next to India in SAARC, with open borders and a mere hour-and-a-half flight time away, had not had a prime ministerial visit in 17 years.

The effect of this activity has also been the facilitation of bilateral and Indian initiatives at a quickened pace, and a gush of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), amounting to over $320 billion.

India has perhaps the unique distinction of criss-crossing groupings and blocks to create strong diplomatic bonds with countries that may not see eye to eye with each other on all matters. We now get on just as well with Iran as we do with Saudi Arabia, and with Israel and the Palestinian Authority, for example. We have armament contracts with both America and Russia, and a relationship of “competition and cooperation” with China that goes on apace, despite border disputes and other disagreements with them.

We have also been invited on to highly selective international weapons and dual use technology platforms such as the Wassenaar Arrangement, and the Australia Group which looks at the nonproliferation of chemical and biological weapons. India has been inducted into the prestigious Missile Control Technology Regime (MTCR). It is a de facto member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), that enables us to import and build nuclear power plants, even though China continues to block our formal induction into the latter.

It is expected, the minister said, that India would soon be invited as a full-fledged UNSC permanent member with veto powers, emphasizing that we were not interested “in a second class citizenship at the high table”.

Given the unhappiness of the other permanent members UNSC with China’s obdurate stand on Masood Azhar and other issues, unilateral actions including a further squeeze on Pakistan’s finances from the concessional lending agencies such as the World Bank and IMF are not ruled out. In addition, an expanded UNSC may come about, whether China likes it or not.

The fact that India received such solid support from the resolution sponsoring nations of France, Britain, and America, with Russia  and  several  Islamic countries joining in, is most heartening.

The only place it appears where Indian diplomacy has not worked so well, even if it is in terms of exchanging fire at the LoC, and via the long drawn out battle with terrorists, rather than a war, even on the restricted basis of Kargil - is in our relationship with Pakistan.

But here too, the Modi regime has called Pakistan’s long standing nuclear bluff, during the Surgical Strike of 2016, and again at Balakot just last month. This is an international first and will have far reaching consequences.

Diplomatic bilateral and back channel efforts have by no means ceased however, though, the minister pointed out, we have done rather better with the Pakistani politicians, than we have with the Pakistan Army, the ISI, and its large apparatus of terrorist organizations. So much so, that Pakistan came  towards India the day after Balakot with 24 fighter planes, and a view to avenge the attack.

In fact, every time, there has been a move towards dialogue and understanding with the Pakistani civilian leadership, the real power centres of Pakistan have been quick to scuttle it.

The new and highly effective tack that India has taken by way of a preemptive strike against the JeM training centre at Balakot may perforce cause a rethinking of the long held strategy of a “thousand cuts” across the border, but not, it seems, just yet.

The most important diplomatic dividend after the strike was that not a single country condemned India for carrying it out, though all were keen that we should not escalate matters. This is, of course, partly due to the relative geopolitical importance of India today, in comparison to a terrorist sponsoring but nearly bankrupt and isolated Pakistan.

This was illustrated by a pointed invitation from the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC), which had Minister Swaraj as Chief Guest, over the objections of Pakistan, to the recently held UAE Summit. Pakistan refused, as a consequence, to attend.

Indian commentators baying at the moon after China’s altogether expected 11^th hour veto on the UNSC resolution on designating Masood Azhar a global terrorist, need to think again. They may be well advised to read and meditate upon the ancient, (9^th century BC), system of divination via cleromancy called the I Ching or Book of Changes.  It has a chance of revealing aspects of the complex Chinese way of thinking to them, with its apparent inscrutability and multiple objectives.

Yes, China moved to block the declaration on Masood Azhar at the UNSC for the fourth time.  But the predictable criticism should take into account that it did, reluctantly, after asking for minute changes 8 times, join others to name JeM   a terrorist organization just a few days ago.

And what good has naming his terrorist colleague Hafiz Saeed a global terrorist and putting a large price on his head actually done to hamper his nefarious activities vis a vis India?  In fact, the number of banned and UN designated global terrorists roaming about freely in Pakistan number well over a hundred, with no adverse consequences visited on them.

Critics, including those who object to India’s low key “disappointment” with China’s latest veto, should also remember China’s advise to Pakistan to settle issues with India on a bilateral basis after Balakot.

With the ambitious CPEC that leads China to a port on the Arabian Sea at Gwadar, and sunk costs of over $50 billion, it would be unreasonable for China to invite attacks from the JeM and friends. But India, taking out the terrorists in a preemptive strike with a promise of more to come if necessary, is another matter altogether.

And trade relations with India are on an ever growing track. On our part, India has seen to it that it has not participated in the Belt and Road Initiative, a pet project of President Xi Jinping. This includes the CPEC that cuts illegally through PoK. India has also gone on record to warn other participants that it is a road to their inevitable bankruptcy and loss of key assets, given the financial terms used. This has, in fact, been borne out in country after country already.

India has its own gentler forms of economic partnership with the African nations, the Asean countries, within the rest of SAARC and BIMSTEC that have been ramped up and been highly appreciated by all.

In  fact, as China embarks on a course towards world domination, the credentials of India as  the fastest growing  large economy in the world but without aggressive intent are attracting more and more goodwill.

The extradition of wanted people from the UAE and Saudi Arabia has set the ball rolling for infamous hideouts from the arm of home-country justice, such as Britain.

Indian foreign policy over the last five years has been responsive to Indians stranded, or in difficulty overseas, most dramatically demonstrated in the rescue from a war torn Yemen of 7,000 Indians and some 4,000 nationals from 48 other countries, including 3 from Pakistan!  

And while passports and travel documents are now processed in record time, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), and the prime minister himself  has built bridges for the first time with the over 31 million strong Indian diaspora.

All of this augurs well for India, especially as Narendra Modi and the NDA are widely expected to win a second term in office come May 2019.

India has earned the respect of the world afresh, and this is an intangible that can be built upon to secure stellar tangible gains as well.

(1,399 words)

For: The Sunday Guardian

March 14^th,2019

Gautam Mukherjee

No Country Can Be A Global Leader Without Making Its Own Weapons

No Country Can Be A Global Leader Without Making Its Own Weapons

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), has had five permanent members since soon after the Second World War. India, then just emerging into independence was a poor third-world country with a population of under 350 million. China, fortunate enough to join the UNSC, in 1950, courtesy India’s first refusal of the invitation, was then, equally poor, but accounted for a fifth of humanity.

America, Britain, France, Russia (then the USSR), came to dominate global politics as the victors of WWII. They developed massive armament industries on the foundation of their war machines. China started later, but today they all produce a wide array of conventional and nuclear weapons and systems.

These weapons and systems, fuelled by their R&D capabilities and UNSC economies, make them the world’s foremost military powers. They exert great influence and earn billions by way of exports to the other, mostly non-nuclear militaries of the world.

For India, the need to be strategically secure against two often hostile neighbours is urgent. It would be critical if India were not a nuclear power in counter balance to Pakistan and China.

But as it stands, India will have to procure a proportion of state-of-the-art weaponry from abroad for decades to come. This despite technology transfers and offsets agreements obtained, mainly because of a lack of strong military R&D in-country. Still, the Make in India defence manufacturing initiative is beginning to show results.

Mere GDP growth, and excellence in other fields, cannot put any new aspirant to the UNSC, in the same league. This is because of the yawning strategic vulnerability of not controlling the means of its defense.  

Still, India does excel in areas where we were forced to develop our own know-how because of embargos placed on technology imports. That is how we have developed nuclear weapons capacity and indigenous satellite launching skills for example. We have also entirely developed some types of our own missiles, and worked in collaboration with Russia and Israel on others.  The Inter-continental ballistic missiles ( ICBMs), are an area that has a very short list of global manufacturers. India is on it because we learned to launch heavier payloads at ISRO, and married it to home- grown developments in missile and nuclear weapons technology.  

India now aspires to become a full-fledged permanent member of the UNSC with veto powers. It is the fastest growing major economy in the world, ranked 6^th largest, and trending towards fifth.  It has a $2.5 trillion economy expected to grow to $10 trillion in little over a decade.

But there is much work to be done with regard to India’s broader armaments industry. The Modi government has effected a major policy shift, but has had only five years towards its implementation. Given a second term in office this project should go forward with great vigour.

At present, even if India were to be admitted to the UNSC to balance out the influence of a sometimes obstructionist China, it cannot have the same clout.  

Even without sanctions and embargos, importing weapons is more expensive, and there is usually a technology barrier when it comes to the latest and the best. Cutting-edge weaponry is constantly being developed by the majors, and a similar capacity is essential for India in due course.

Tiny Israel has demonstrated the truth of this by developing into a major defence supplier to India.  Starting in 1948, it produces superior armaments from its highly advanced defense and start-up industry. This was demonstrated recently by the IAF’s precision strikes on the JeM terrorist training centre at Balakot.

There are other challenges too. Hacking into the world’s software systems is a major Chinese skill. This form of espionage can also disable or cause malfunctions in weapons and delivery systems. Almost every major country including India is  therefore hard at work developing its own cyber warfare capacities.

Almost every piece of military equipment, and much that is used in the civilian world is  now highly dependent on its software. Apart from predatory intrusions, the original authors of such software can monitor the uses its systems are being put to, long after the sale. Indeed, they possess the means to override and suspend capabilities on a one-way basis without permission. The hardware, however formidable, is now helpless without its software brain.

India has recently slipped into the second largest importer of armaments slot after almost a decade at the top of this sorry list. It has now been overtaken by Saudi Arabia, buying billions in arms from the US.

In two years, India’s Defence Research and Development  Organisation   ( DRDO), not previously known for its dynamism, has built  six air defence and anti-tank missile projects worth over  rupees one lakh crores.  Such items were either imported before the relentless efforts of the Modi government, or the country was unable to afford them altogether.

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) too is on the brink, at last, of delivering squadrons of its new, improved, Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) to the Armed Forces. Other countries, such as Malaysia, have shown interest in it too.

The Modi government and its Defence Ministry has also backed the DRDO’s indigenous missile building systems. It has been asked to redesign its missiles to take into account the updated needs of the armed forces. Most such projects have languished for decades as the political dispensation favoured imports. But now, the Make in India policy thrust is changing things.

There are two separate projects for Short Range Surface to Air Missiles (SR-SAMs) for the Army and Navy under implementation. The Quick Reaction Surface to Air Missile (QRSAM) is for the Army. The Anti-Tank Guilded Missile (ATGM) for the Army has a version for helicopter launches from the air, and another for  armoured vehicles from the ground.

Fortunately the trend is towards substituting state- of-the-art with its equivalent, and not a misguided attempt at producing inferior weapons at home. We will shortly be producing AK -203 machine guns at a green-field facility at Amethi in collaboration with the Russians. But meanwhile, India will import 72, 400 SIG 716 assault rifles of 7.62 mm calibre ( from Sig Sauer of the US). These will have an effective range of 500 m and yet weigh less than 3 kg. each. These are expected to be delivered by February 2020. 

India will also import 93, 895 carbines of 5.56 mm  calibre from America on a fast-track basis. These rush orders will be followed by 5.5 lakh assault rifles and 3.5 lakh carbines on a  “Make in India” programme.

Similar indigenous efforts and collaborations to produce field guns and howitzers, helicopters, drones, navy vessels of different kinds including patrol boats, stealth frigates and submarines, even indigenous aircraft carriers are moving apace. A robust Made in India military profile is now firmly on the cards.

This weaponry is being supported by a massive thrust to develop modern infrastructure and logistical ability. Parts of India that are of great strategic significance but lacked proper connectivity are being rapidly accessed. This will help military deployment and peoples’ movement as much as the economy.

No country that will be in the top three by 2030, with a nearly $10 trillion economy, can afford to do less.

(1,199 words)

For: My Nation

March 15^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

BOOK REVIEW: BALANCE BY NAMRATA RANA & UTKARSH MAJUMDAR

BOOK REVIEW

TITLE: BALANCE-RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS FOR THE DIGITAL AGE

AUTHORS: NAMRATA RANA and UTKARSH MAJUMDAR

PUBLISHER: WESTLAND, 2018

PRICE:  HARDBACK,Rs. 799/-

Balance Needs To Be Created

“Global wealth stood at $ 280 trillion by mid 2017,” starts off chapter 1 of Balance. How much of this is used to preserve the earth from extinction by human negligence, the entire book that follows seems to be asking.  

“Sustainable Growth” is the answer, and not just GDP pump-priming, according to the authors. It calls for an “integrated approach to development and future planning”. What the authors call “Systems Thinking”.

Unregulated, irresponsible human progress and prosperity from the dawn off the Industrial Age to the end of the second decade of the 21^st century, is now destroying the earth. Plus, wars for territory that used to kill millions, periodic plagues and epidemics that also carried off many,  are no longer doing so, leading to a world population explosion, and resultant stress on the earth’s natural resources.  

Effluent discharges from industries, plastics that don’t biodegrade, trees that are cut and not replaced, human sewage, noxious vapours destroying the air, and  effluents  polluting the water in lakes, ponds, rivers, seas, oceans,  are denuding them of all life forms.

The toxins also leach into the earth, poisoning arable land where crops are grown,  and destroy drinking water sources. Global warming is changing the climate, triggering natural disasters.

There is no way out but collective action to regulate how we treat our environment, or future generations will find it difficult to survive, even as mutants are born and new forms of incurable disease grow to epidemic proportions.

And yet very little is actually happening.

This book, Balance, seeks to tell the story via a tour of the main markers. There are “externalities and their implications” meaning the impact of a given commercial or industrial activity on others.

The “Social return on investment (SROI)” is a formula  for measuring the social profits against the investments made, controversial as it may be in terms of accounting principles adopted. But it does set up an index for comparing scores.

One of the most interesting explorations in this book are on the “frictionless” uses of Blockchain Technology. It could, say the authors, “support green supply chains, measuring water use, emissions management,” and can support the “sharing economy”. Cryptocurrencies are already legal tender in Japan.

There is an urgent need to understand climate change better.  The World Economic Forum projects that by 2020, which is almost upon us, “about $5.7 trillion will need to be invested annually in green infrastructure”. This is definitely a tall order, given that most of the investment has to come from a concept called “climate financing,” a kind of World Bank for climate change mitigation by adopting projects and programmes. Again, there are controversies of what kind of project qualifies.

There is a need for instruments like “Green bonds” and “Catastrophe bonds” and qualification on the basis of “impact testing”. The whole caboodle is commonsensically very difficult to get started and flourishing, as the tangible short term returns are negligible. However, the importance of doing something, almost anything, cannot be denied.

There are UN developed Sustainable Development goals (SDGs), some 17 in number, and extremely macroeconomic in scale. They list, for example, “Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment, and decent work for all” and “End poverty in all its forms everywhere”.

And then there is corporate social responsibility to do things in an ecologically friendly way that makes for sustainability. Broad Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) norms are increasingly mandatory, but is this enforced around the country and the globe?

India only mandates a 2%  of turnover spend on CSR, but a survey of its top 166 companies in 2016-17 clocked just 1.88%. And about 45% of this was used on health and education, while the list includes poverty alleviation, water, energy, capacity building and many other heads. Still, the CSR spend has risen from about 1% before it was made mandatory.

Of course, this CSR approach is going to stay largely cosmetic, given the size of the problem and its overhang that threatens to engulf us all. However, to get the largest economies to take on extra here-and-now costs, which are far from negligible, to fuel a cleaner, more sustainable future, is a difficult task.

Much of the clean-up therefore has to be undertaken at government expense, as in the sewage processing stations and other effluent management infrastructure being developed in the Namame Ganga projects. However, these are showing good results in short order, after years of trying to tell municipalities and industry to do something about it failed.

The book lays out case studies taken from a number of companies in different fields such as Kirloskar Motors, Toyota Motor Corporation, Yes Bank, Ambuja  Cement, ITC and Dr.Reddy’s.

It reviews the challenges faced by various and diverse sectors such as cement, automobiles, oil and gas, telecom, mining and metals, banking and financial services, information technology, towards not only controlling and sanitising effluents and emissions, but even toxic electronic waste.

Laws play their part, as does enforcement or lack of it. India has quite a few laws in this space- Waste Management Laws, Environmental Protection Acts, Bio-Medical Waste Management and Handling Rules, Batteries Management and Handling Rules, Hazardous Wastes Management and Handling and Transboundary Movement Rules, Plastic Waste Management and Handling Rules,  E-waste Management and Handling Rules, Solid Waste Management Rules.

Data is another great frontier that has got its European law even as India is starting to enact its own. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is applied in the EU and the European Economic Area (EEA) towards data protection and privacy for individuals. How privacy of personal data impacts sustainable development however is unclear.

The authors of this book are Namrata Rana, who works in the area of strategy and brands at Futurescape and is visiting faculty at IIM Udaipur, and Utkarsh Majumdar, who teaches at leading business schools and writes on sustainability and business responsibility.

This volume covers a lot of ground, but the authors are probably most comfortable with the growth and improvement matrix for a responsible corporate sector, where both authors display the confidence of domain knowledge.

Many of the global initiatives described however have failed to touch many lives, even as they have underscored that efforts are indeed underway. But will the answer to a cleaner world eventually come from inexpensive new technology adoption that renders older, polluting ways obsolete, and too expensive to carry on with? The history of the industrial revolution, now apparently in its 4^th wave, as   well as the socio-political advancements we have seen over the last century, seem to suggest as much.

(1,094 words)

For: The Sunday Pioneer AGENDA BOOKS

March 7, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee