A Dogged Tale

 The Wicked Queen’s obsequious mirror in the Snow White Palace can’t best this. Dog Devotion is absolute. It’s mountainous heaps of admiration plus love and focus. Such focus that it makes the lyrics of Cilla Black’s You’re my World levitate and revisit freshness on the misty banks of the Mersey.

 You can’t put off your pet dog. Take a poll - ask handsome ‘own store’ pirate who denies being Quasimodo, or Adolph Kumar, the cable-laying cum communist house-painter. Ask the late nation-building Saddam’s ghost, Aqualung the hot item girl from Poland/Ukraine, and your unfriendly neighbourhood terrorist, Bin something, back from a quick trip to you know where. 

But all the while humankind is busy opining on the dog, to it, you’re no less than a radiant planet, and it is honoured to be your happy satellite.

A bad encounter with a dog is normally an armchair experience of a literary kind. You can choose to meet the Hound of the Baskervilles or the Escapee from the Dog Crypt there.

But in real-time, you’d have to be a right nasty.  Or the run in is with a rabid canine, a dog startled, scared, recovering from abuse, or fed on mad cow.

But really, considering all the many types, the genetic foundation of practically every well-known dog is less than 500 years old. Most dogs we know have been bred, Mandingo fashion, by man, according to a paper published  by Elaine Ostrander and Leonid Kruglyale of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, (Seattle), in the  American Association for the Advancement of Science magazine. Interestingly, the duo looked into dog genetics to cast some further light on human ones.

Really ‘old family’ dogs, with a genetic trail going back some 12,000 to 14,000 years, do however exist. They include the Shar-pei and Chow from China, the Basenji from Africa, the Afghan from (paradoxically) Arabia, and the Siberian Husky – all close relatives, different as they may seem, of the wolf.

Another  unexpected on this list is the small and fluffy Shih Tzu, which looks like a wind-up yappy toy. Just goes to show!

And if there is a look of bewilderment on your newbie but bred-to-be-fierce Rottweiler/Tibetan Mastiff/Pit Bull - please tell it/the entire platoon behind it, that we hereby hasten to add that we weren’t talking about them.

But in the main, dogs have been propping up human beings from the time the first wolf walked into a fire-warmed cave, from the cold outside. Celebrated and enduring may well be good words to describe the man-dog partnership.

On the dog side of the ledger, is the civilising effect he’s had on man  - the setting of value tones, and maintaining the aesthetics of a relationship.

On the side of man’s evolution, observing dogs at play has led us to imitate their hind-quarters activity. Mankind has also taken the dog’s display of tooth and claw as a licence to bite, perceived enemies certainly, but also the hand that feeds.

Without doubt, it is the dog that has the better take on compassion; unhesitatingly welcoming proximity, even to the most dysfunctional, depressive or unpleasant amongst us.

Clearly, dogs can love normal people, and very many other kinds, with no resultant loss of enthusiasm. Their invaluable assistance to the invalid, the lonely, the blind is well known. The dog’s light touch at apprehending criminals without offending their dignity more than is absolutely necessary is also a wonder to behold.

But praise from man, whom the dog knows for his mood swings, sometimes embarrasses the quadruped.   Still, it was a pig, Squealer, that came up with the slogan, in George Orwell’s Animal Farm: ‘Two legs bad, four legs good’.  

The dog on the other hand, has the wisdom to play the fool, happy to raise a laugh, and glad for a cuddle.

But man has been carrying on an anthropomorphic affair of his own. Dogs come in great variety, in style, plot, theme, song, book, art, film, fashion, cartoon and coffee mug. They’ve sparked a multi-billion dollar business, Thank the Great Borzoi in the Sky, in pet food and accessories, vet and dog shrink, beautician and sculptor - all the way from the kennel to the grave.

The make-like-a-dog audio honours go, famously, to a nameless Hound Dog of ‘you ain’t nothing but a…’ fame. This ditty, accompanied by pelvis action, caused TV impresario Ed Sullivan (a straight-jacketed but hugely popular Oprah of his time), to picture Elvis from the waist up.   

 Not all famous dogs are nameless though.  Take Devil and his tag-line ‘He’s not a dog, he’s a wolf’ stated calmly when people go ‘Jeez, what is that!’

Devil accompanies The Ghost Who Walks out of the deep-woods at Bangalla whenever he goes into town - in hat, Fedora-pulled down over eyes, and belted, (Burberry?) overcoat. This ‘town’ usually means a world apart, Chicago or New York, a long Dakota ride away. But Devil comes along. 

It made for a nice contrast to the Bangalla forest highlights: Hero the white horse grazing in tranquillity. The waterfall in front of the Skull Cave flowing like a liquid curtain. Smiling, tourist poster quality Bandar Pygmy people in grass skirts, quite capable of doing you in silently with their poison blow-darts. And Devil  - dematerialised into the forest.  

 A pair of literary top-dogs that best the recently departed Lee Falk’s Devil with the full power of towering characterisation, is Jack London’s Call of the Wild featuring Buck, half St.Bernard and half German Shepherd, and White Fang, half husky and half wolf. These dogs are the central characters of London’s books,  along with Alaska and the Yukon respectively, as the supporting actors.

Others walk the stage in smallish, frequently furry and white aspect. They are capable of turning their masters into twittering messes at a flick of a tail or the cock of an ear. To wit: Snowy, Tintin’s inseparable, and one Dogmatix- beloved miniature four-legged buddy of menhir delivery man Obelisk.

There’s Size Big master of the yesteryear comic strip- Marmaduke.  This is a daily romp with a Great Dane in a metaphorical suburban China Shop.

There’s Snoopy, atop his kennel, rather than in it, tended to by that stoic hero Charlie Brown, who served as a backbone to the late Schultz’s considerable wizardry.

There are so many literary dogs besides - untidy Ruff, alter-ego to one Dennis the Menace, Benji, Lassie, Rin Tin Tin, Scooby Doo, Deputy Dawg and gawrsh-making Goofy…The muppetisation and soft-toy  industry seems well stocked too, but wait.

Before we forget the hunting and gathering days altogether, that original man-dog partnership deed may need another look yet!

Sparsely populated parts of northern Europe, rural farmland for centuries, is being reclaimed by the wild, and packs of wolves are back, alongside the occasional bear. This has not been seen since medieval times. It’s the declining or non-existent birth-rates, migration to the cities, a dwindling population.

Let’s face it -there is good reason for Angela Merken’s Germany to let in the Syrian refugees.

For: Sirfnews On The Weekend

(1,167 words)

December 26^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Profligate Spending, Poor Returns

Profligate Spending, Poor Returns

Indian government deficits, both fiscal and current account, are reported to be in decline via accepted norms of  accounting compartmentalisation. They are simultaneously and otherwise estimated to be at multiples of what the official reports would suggest.

The Indian juggernaut is remarkably profligate in its spending. This is obvious to the casual observer, who has to remind himself that this is an ‘emerging economy’ and not some hugely rich kingdom with separate kings at every lamppost.

The government spending we see is mostly and audaciously self-serving in terms of where and how it is applied. The ruling sarkari classes: bureaucracy and politicians alike, are united in this. So, there is little left over in any budget or ad hoc pool for growth and development aimed at the people, either on a revenue earned or borrowed basis. But new taxes and cesses are ever popular, in place of any kind of government belt-tightening or efficient use of capital.

Most of what the government borrows, goes, in fact, to pay off other borrowing already in place! Where does the voter figure in all this? Certainly not very high on any real list of priorities, though the people, particularly the poor, are often invoked as an alibi.

Still, the sharp oil price decline, now at below $37 a barrel down from over $110, has helped dramatically to better the comparative figures on deficits, and inflation too.

In an Orwellian sense, the deficits have indeed declined during the nearly two years of the Modi government, but only against itself, as selectively defined. But, to what, beyond the declining price of oil, and thereby the smaller petroleum import bill, can we attribute the betterment to?

What we call the total fiscal and current account deficits, doesn’t count up a lot of outstanding borrowed expenditure; much of it knowing future bad debt, that is sitting under various other heads, both at the centre and the states, and in the books of state owned utilities and the like. These together, are said to be nothing under 10 -15% of GDP, at a conservative estimate.

But reports that come up with this ‘actual deficits are much higher than realised’ thesis, laden with statistics, graphs, charts, and difficult economic theory, as they tend to be, are not appreciated by any government of the day. They don’t want to think about it, because much deficit spending is either for its own ben efit, or vote seeking and populist in nature - free electricity, free other things, known unprofitable ventures; and they don’t want the exposure. Just imagine so many overweight emperors with no face saving clothes.

Besides, reports on national deficit financing etc. tend not to be understood outside of accounting, rating/analyst and economist circles, and therefore are largely given the miss by the mass media as well.

The readership statistics on editorials and op-eds may be rising as a tool to self-improvement, but as a percentage of total readers of media output, tend to be in the single digits, here and indeed worldwide.

But when it comes to deficits, the most powerful country in the world, the United States, counts its national debt in ever ballooning but unfazed trillions, supported by little beyond its credibility by way of collateral.

Its allies across the pond, including Germany and France, are not exactly debt -lite either. In fact the entire borrow-and-spend West is in recession, with several of the smaller components of the EU quite bankrupt today, because of this great way to get ahead, in vogue ever since the eighties.

Governor Raghuram Rajan of the RBI, first became world famous while working at the IMF, for predicting, most unpopularly, that the party was going to end in tears, some years before 2008 happened.

Meanwhile, India is said to be growing at 7.5% in terms of GDP after the method of calculation was changed. According to the old method, again not amplified on much by anybody, we are still languishing at some 5.2%. And the real rate of growth after inflation depends on the sleight of hand you best fancy.

In any event, though 7.5% is meant to make India the fastest growing major economy in the world today, better than China, growing at slightly less, with its $ 12 billion economy. But the real point is China is over-built and played out in terms of its export model, and India may be just getting started,  at its traditionally elephantine pace, or is it that of the Vaishnavite tortoise?

India is, in any case, operating from a low base of approximately $ 2 trillion. But many serious commentators have said that it certainly does not feel as if the economy is growing at over 7%. Industry and services, agriculture and incomes, all seem to be stagnating instead. Life is tough. Making ends meet is not getting easier. Where are the new jobs? One quarter of youngsters under 25 are said to be looking for jobs. The stock and property markets are going nowhere.

The official growth rates must be correct, if the statistics say so, and international rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch accept it. But it is a wonder why they do accept it. Probably because they conform to the same international principles that has the world in a lot of economic trouble presently.

But the suspicion in the common mind is that maybe the statistics are convoluted, and are missing the real state of play. Will all of this, domestically and internationally blow up into another major crash, worse than the first, despite the pump priming of billions over years or maybe because of it? Many economists say yes. The world as such however, is in denial.

In India, most state revenues are far short of expenditure, as are the expenses versus income of the central government. Besides there are historical debts racked up in previous years, sometimes by previous governments, still largely outstanding. These eat away at current state allocations from the centre, as well as whatever revenues it generates within the state. Interest piles up on unpaid interest, compounding its way towards a ruinous, unaffordable, write- off eventually, time and again.

Economic packages are demanded and granted, and all the while the deficit funding keeps ballooning. OROP and the 7^th Pay Commission under process, is going to cost the government a pretty penny, and though the stimulus to the economy in many consuming hands is welcome, even the official deficit targets have had to  be pushed back to future years.

Productivity and return on capital, the drivers of healthy economic activity, are however, largely missing in action, even in the private sector, and certainly in the government, and the public sectors it runs.

It is no wonder that  Raghuram  Rajan, a fiscal conservative, has been harping on the bad debt situation of the PSU banks. It is not his job, but if he was the finance minister and wasn’t a politician  in that role, he’d have a great deal more to say about the parlous state of the government’s finances and its massive public debt spiralling ever higher as well.

Rajan wants the bankruptcy law as soon as possible to clean up the books. But the government, after considering passing it as a money bill in the Winter Session’s last days, has pushed it down the pike to a joint parliamentary committee to consider. It won’t surface before the budget session in February 2016 at a minimum now.

But the moot question is, does this government want to see a large number of bankruptcies piling up under its watch? Cleaning up the burden of debt in the banks may be important to the professionally manned RBI, but can be very embarrassing and politically damaging to the Modi government.

Which Pandora’s Box should be opened voluntarily? Shouldn’t they all stay firmly closed?

For: Swarajyamag

(1,305 words)

December 24^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Call Drop Prasad & The Ineffectiveness Of His Governance

Call Drop Prasad & The Ineffectiveness Of His Governance

Unlike several of his cabinet colleagues, RSS backed union cabinet minister for Communications & IT, Ravi Shankar Prasad, enjoys coming on TV and talking up a storm on how dynamic his ministry is.

It is a habit left over from his earlier party spokesperson avatar, when being inventive about everything regarding the BJP/NDA/RSS and broader Sangh Parivar fell to his lot, channel after news channel; and night after night.

But even so, he offers little beyond bluster about taking ‘stern action’, jowls a quiver and spectacles glinting mightily, and how ‘it is not my job to find towers’.

There is no case from ‘Call Drop Prasad’ of informing the public on what he is doing to resolve the problem, apart from a lame TRAI plan to dock the mobile operators and crediting a few rupees to the users afflicted three times or more, or Rs. 3 a day at  best, or is it worst.

This, while it does nothing by way of solution, is nevertheless being stoutly and legally contested by the operators. Fact is, the operators, both in the private and public sectors, are finding it difficult to make money on ‘voice’, due to the competition, and the cost of putting up and maintaining communication towers all over the country.

With the steady increase in the use of smartphones and broadband, the advent of 4 G too, operators earn much more from their data services including music, multimedia visuals/movies/youtube etc.. This, consumed over computers and smart phones pays well.

The problem of call drops can be solved with government help/incentives to the private operators for more communication towers. The help should include offering them sites on government land and buildings. Shouting it isn’t my problem is not good enough, minister Prasad, because, in the end, it is.

When it comes to government owned MTNL and BSNL, both loss-making to the tune of some Rs. 8,000 crores, when this government took over, despite lower consumer prices - some 4,144 new towers have indeed been added, between April-November 2015.

There is, of course, legitimate concern from people living near urban mobile tower sites, because of their propensity to spread cancer causing radiation. Also, since historically many towers were put up to improve ‘coverage’ illegally, on private roof tops and the like, mainly by private operators in a quest for greater market share, they have had to be shut down.

But, even now, as many as 34,460 mobile tower sites belonging to the privates like Aircel, Idea, Vodafone, Airtel, Tata, Telenor, Reliance Communications, Videocon, Quadrant and Shyam Teleservices, were found to be defective. And about half (16, 962), have been set right under this government’s watch. Another 17,498 await repairs. This information was given by Call Drop Prasad in parliament after opposition demands, but he did not think it necessary to tell the public .

On TV, it is Prasad’s oddly syntaxed lawyerese, whether delivered in English or Hindi, always hovering on the edge of bombast, delivered with a sweet smile. And it is further leavened with his considerable Bihari political good sense. That he refuses to talk substance to the suffering public is probably because he thinks they won’t understand such complex matters.

Still, Prasad seems well satisfied with himself, implying so are his other cabinet colleagues, and that is what matters to him.

It is perhaps symptomatic of this government that it feels no urge to be particularly accountable, certainly against any objective yardstick, comparing itself instead, every time, to how the UPA always did worse.

Meanwhile, the janata  around the country, and certainly in the capital city of Delhi, can barely hear themselves talk. We all have arcane methods to find hotspots at home: on the veranda, kitchen, staircase, windowsill, toilet, sundry corners. Likewise, in the office. From such hotspots, a call can go through and endure, provided you hold still, believing your phone is made of nitroglycerin, and speak with great enunciation.

Thank God, many think, for Whatsapp and text messaging/email, or there would be little mobile telephonic communication, muffled, fading, or otherwise. Inside moving capsules like cars, the metro-platforms, tunnels and elevated sections included, or buses; long stretches of dense city,  let alone sparsely populated and bucolic countryside, there is no connectivity at all.

Not to worry, since there’s no hope. Go watch something on your phone perched near a hotspot and make your operator happy. Somebody ought to be, and don’t tell me what you’ve thought to watch. There are, believe it, statistics on that too.

For: The Quint

(748 words)

December 22^nd, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Infrastructure & Defence Manufacturing Must Grow The Economy

Infrastructure & Defence Manufacturing Must Grow The Economy

The notion of a majority government being able to carry out its legislative agenda has been turned on its ear by a consistent failure of Indian parliament to operate. And if the NDA government is on the receiving end from the opposition, citing a clutch of excuses masquerading as reasons, it is only being paid back in its own coin.

The Arun Jaitley led opposition in the Rajya Sabha, did exactly likewise to the UPA. So, in a way, what we are seeing is nothing but just desserts.

The person at the top, the outsider to Lutyens’ Delhi, prime minister Narendra Modi, is, in a sense, a victim of past sins.

That the Congress,  humiliated by the extent of their defeat at his hands, is in no mood to cooperate with him, is yet another, rather personalised reason, for the acrimony.

But, the deeper point is that this ‘paralysis’ brought about deliberately, instead of the discussion and debate that is meant to be the hallmark of parliament, was certainly never intended by the framers of the constitution. It is a subversion, and some, like the BJD from Odisha are suggesting that the veto powers of the Rajya Sabha be abrogated.

However, as this too will take a constitutional amendment like the GST, it is not likely to come about any time soon.

So, in the interim, it has given a fractious opposition the means to stop almost all fresh legislation from being passed. The original parliamentary rules have been twisted and perverted to serve the grim politics of attrition instead. And this will probably dog this administration, almost into its second year, for the rest of its tenure till 2019.

Therefore the Modi government has no choice but to find another method to deliver on its promises, more or less, without the help of parliament. In the absence of laws that could have stimulated growth and development in a plethora of directions, laws such as the GST and Labour Law modernisation, the government would do well to pick on some high value areas that can work independently for it.  

The two clear-cut methods to boost the economy without  fresh legislative help are in the region of infrastructure: highways, ports, electricity, canals, railways, metros, bullet trains, housing, commercial developments, airports and the like, some of which have enough legislative leeway already, or have union/railway budget sanctions in their favour.  

And then there is the high investment area of defence manufacturing under the ‘make in India’ initiative. Even if a percentage, some 20% say, of the defence purchasing shifts from abroad to this country, it will have a considerable impact, as India is the biggest purchaser of armaments and associated items in the world today.

Neither of these two areas are/will be particularly hampered by the stand still in legislation, including land acquisition, which can be facilitated by laws passed by the affected states in their respective assemblies. Nor are they politically emotive, and are unlikely to lead to protests if they are pursued vigorously. This, differently from nuclear power plants, which tend to excite foreign funded NGO’s working for different lobbies abroad.

Also, infrastructure and defence manufacturing have the potential to considerably boost skill development, indigenous technological ability, enhance export potential by way of project know-how, and defence product sales, be a huge employment booster, and save on money outflows in defence purchases to a significant degree.

The ISRO’s mastery of satellite launching technology into space, as a shining example of quasi-military prowess, is beginning to make it a favourite with various governments around the world.

Infrastructure and defence manufacturing can, if developed with all seriousness,  add considerably to the annual GDP of the country too. This, coming on top of what is seen to be the fastest growth rate of any large economy in the world, at some 7.5% at present, is a mouth-watering prospect for many foreign observers and would be investors.

These areas of priority development can attract large and unprecedented amounts of foreign funding into these investment and technology intensive areas.

The developed world, including China and Japan in the Asian theatre, has slowed down to levels of near recession and over-capacity while suffering from very high levels of debt.

India is one of the few stable economies that has enough demand to sustain them all for decades to come. More and more countries are therefore eager to tap into it, particularly if given government assurances and safeguard guarantees.

 Japan has already begun to implement projects against its pledges of some $ 30 billion in investment over five years, covering large swathes of India’s infrastructure, manufacturing, and even defence/nuclear needs.

China has made a few tentative forays so far as well, and could easily ramp up quickly. France is likely to boost its footprint in India both in terms of the 36  Rafale fighter aircraft it is to manufacture and supply  soon, and its famous Areva nuclear power plants. Sweden’s Saab has made a very attractive offer alongside to manufacture its Griffen fighters in India, and assist other aircraft manufacturing projects underway. Russia, to be visited by prime minister Modi on Christmas eve today, is to supply the most advanced missile shield in the world, and is keen on extensive cooperation on multiple defence manufacturing projects, plus tightly coordinated anti-terrorist measures. Israel and America are also on board for a number of defence manufacturing, joint operational, and other projects, particularly in the IT sector.

The list of international collaborators, stimulated by Modi’s strong foreign policy push, is growing by the day, and include, in concrete manifestations, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Australia, Canada, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Afghanistan, Iran, and the UAE. And even Pakistan is keen to move forward from its adversarial position under a new political thaw.

So, even though  the Modi government is hampered by lack of consensus and cooperation from its parliamentary and political opposition, it is not without options. And the success engendered by leveraging these options could very well win it new allies and friends amongst various regional parties as the time goes on. This, despite rather bleak prospects in various remaining state assembly elections  forthcoming between now and 2019, because of the probable use of the mahagatbandhan formula that has worked so well against the NDA in Bihar.

Of course, given the rampant corruption being exposed in key components of the opposition camp, including an embarrassing  property scam that involves the top leadership of the Congress, the opposition unity may also come under some pressure as the time goes on.

Still, for the moment, the Modi government must urgently play to its strengths to seize the initiative. 

For: The Pioneer

(1,106 words)

December 21^st, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Indian Parliamentary Democracy Is In Crisis

Indian Parliamentary Democracy Is In Crisis

This Winter Session of parliament began loftily enough with an all party discussion on the Indian Constitution and BR Ambedkar, but is ending with next to nothing accomplished.

In between, it was a shameful and unmitigated chaos. But this was the case for large tracts of UPA’s rule too, when this government was in opposition, and thought nothing of wasting tax-payer time and money in similar fashion.

Ergo, Indian democracy may be the largest in the world, electorally speaking, but has reached an impasse. It is in deep crisis.  It cannot pass its laws because of the politics of attrition.

A decimated Congress party has been spoiling for a fight, right from the start in May 2014. It began by heckling prime minister Narendra Modi, viewed as a usurper and poseur by it, and proceeded to prevent parliament from functioning.

The ruling party however did not get aggressive. Old Delhi hands in the NDA government, like the powerful finance minister Arun Jaitley, felt a softer touch would be appreciated. But it didn’t work. Instead, this gentle handling emboldened the badly mauled Congress party, and gave it a second wind.

After sulking for the first few months, the Congress decided to up the ante and go on the attack. It was promptly joined by the Communists and  some regional parties, beginning soon after the AAP landslide in Delhi. And this process has gathered momentum after the equally spectacular JD(U), RJD and Congress win in Bihar.

A combined opposition, a wider still mahagatbandhan than the one in Bihar, it is thought, can knock out Modi and the BJP/NDA  in the remaining assembly elections, and in the general elections, come 2019.

But ironically, the Congress has recently become enmeshed in a crisis of its own. It is a criminal case involving the president and vice president of the party directly. And try to shake it off as it has, the case is going to trial. It is bound to make adverse headlines for it, at least through all of 2016.

To glean political dividend from this fresh trouble, Congress is crying that this criminal case, filed by BJP member Subramanian Swamy, represents its ‘politics of vendetta’, in an effort to unify more elements of the opposition.

And this, as this government nears two years in power. Modi however, has over three years, to form viable new alliances of his own, break opposition unity, and consolidate the position of the NDA.  

To do so in these confrontational times, he must explore options to target all corrupt leadership in various opposition parties. The likely candidates for such strong-arm tactics stretch temptingly across the political landscape. But prima facie direct involvement of political heavyweights    must be established for prosecution.

Mamata Banerjee, for example, is not only said to be embroiled in the Sharada scam, but has demonstrated a propensity to side with the opposition, given the sizeable Muslim population in West Bengal. She might, of course, be persuaded to switch sides, but only after her own forthcoming assembly elections are behind her.

The BJD in Odisha, has a clean reputation, and might become a possible

ally for the NDA once again. It is currently running a most welcome

campaign to reform the Rajya Sabha, so that its pernicious veto powers

are curtailed. But again, this will need a constitutional amendment; not

easy to come by.

Another possibility is an NDA alliance with either SP or BSP in Uttar Pradesh, both for the coming assembly elections and onwards. J. Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu may be quite amenable to ally with the NDA as well and so on.

In short, the proposed enlarged mahagatbandhan may not really have that

much of a free run across the country.

Politics apart, in terms of governance also, a mid-term course correction is mandatory if the BJP is going to give itself a chance in 2019. Its disappointing version of  ‘Congress plus Cow’ rule, as the spurned Arun Shourie dubbed it, has been most underwhelming.

This particularly for the people who voted for Modi, rather than the BJP, on the strength of his Gujarat track record, and his soaring rhetoric on the election trail. The ‘Modi magic’ worked thereafter for the assembly elections in J&K, Maharashtra,  and Jharkhand too, but with diminishing returns.

The government is now on spec to deliver, and the cabinet is perceived to  be wanting. There has been little, even by way of administrative reform. In addition, we see a chaotic and negative handling of its image. And no appreciable progress in multiple ministries either.

There have been two bureaucratic budgets, and no one is expecting much from the third. No big bang economic reforms whatsoever have  materialised. Instead, the government has adopted a cautious gradualism and lucked out over oil prices. It doesn’t feel like a Modi-led government at all, except for the bold foreign affairs initiatives, handled personally, and the resultant FDI. Narendra Modi has also done a yeoman job of controlling corruption at higher levels of government.

In the cabinet, only Piyush Goyal in power, Nitin Gadkari in highways, and Sushma Swaraj in external affairs, stand out.

This state of affairs has left the BJP voter baffled. A cabinet reshuffle therefore is sorely needed, and fresh talent, if necessary from the diaspora, from academia, or the private sector, needs to be inducted.

Only radical innovation can revive faith in Modi’s leadership, and clear the parliamentary logjam going forward.

For: Mail Today

(903 words)

December 20^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Gautam Mukherjee, a former corporate executive, is a regular commentator on economic and political affairs.

The Uncouth Upper House

The Uncouth Upper House

The Rajya Sabha, like the once hereditary British House of Lords, was probably intended to be filled, not with our erstwhile kings and princes, but with wise grey eminences.

Maharajahs, rajahs, princes/nawabs/begums/emirs/akhonds etc. in our neck of the woods, were discredited, unfairly, after our post WWII independence. This, for perforce siding with the British to keep their nominally independent ‘princely states’ from being annexed into the Raj.

They were however annexed promptly into the Union of India when the British left and abandoned them to their fate.  And the Indian royals, being neither democratic, nor a Nehru pleasing Fabian/Laskian, were left with the choice of joining electoral politics, or fading into oblivion. There was going to be no free berth into the Rajya Sabha.

This circumstance, quite unlike the hereditary peers of Great Britain who survived both being decimated in WWI, impoverishment in WWII, the loss of some of their lands, with the proverbial onslaught of death and taxes.

But, over time the Labour Party chipped away at them while in power, and now the lords are only life-time peers, and not hereditary ones, with no power to block legislation passed by the House of Commons.

Of course, though the Rajya Sabha vaguely echoes the House of Lords, in India, an incumbent is indirectly elected or nominated for a five year term whenever a seat falls vacant. He or she may come from any field of endeavour and be nominated or indirectly elected in recognition for distinguished achievement. 

And sometimes for being an old political war horse, that loses a Lok Sabha election, or cannot, in fact, win one, but is seen to be someone who needs to be provided a berth nevertheless. Sometimes this person can even be the prime minister or the finance minister of the realm.

The original idea however was to benefit the lower house with individual and collective insights in legislative matters that they may have overlooked. And it was to do so, more objectively, in a less political manner than the elected lower house, but with a greater emphasis on what is good for the nation at large, the common weal.

The Rajya Sabha was meant to offer sage counsel, and give pause to the legislative doings of a brute majority government, or even a fractious pushme-pullyou coalition.

Instead, circa 2015, and for some unquiet years in the recent past, it has become a wasteful impediment to legislative progress. It is now renowned for its subversion of parliamentary etiquette, careless of the waste and expense of public resources, while conducting what appears to be a boorish slugfest.

Not that, the Lok Sabha is any slouch in this department either, raising the bogey of the parliamentary system itself coming under strain at present.

This even as the Election Commission does an ever better job of conducting free and fair elections, both to the centre and the states. It is distinguished for holding the most extensive elections across the length and breadth of the country, involving the greatest number of voters in the world.

But the indirectly elected and nominated members of the Rajya Sabha have particularly, glaringly, and repeatedly, subverted the original intent of the constitutional fathers of late.

It is now a place for the opposition to engineer bloody-minded blockages, orchestrate disruption, shout slogans, make strange noises, and indulge in name-calling.

If there are no fisticuffs, tearing of clothes, throwing of furniture, shoes, microphones, stands, as has been done in certain state assemblies already, it seems to be only a matter of time.

But what is rare is the discussion, debate, and voting it was set up for. And this, in the full glare of live TV, beamed by satellite to the nation, plus parts foreign.

Everybody in the Rajya Sabha is now apparently partisan, and not always in the spirit of freedom of expression or the workings of democracy. The Speaker appointed by the previous government is rumoured to be sympathetic to its positions. Ditto, the Vice President who presides over the body.  

It would, of course, have been just as bad in the Lok Sabha as well, if not for the government’s absolute majority, but there too, the rump of opposition figures rule the roost. They make an irresponsible din till the house is adjourned with the Speaker there, this time appointed by the government in power, unable, or unwilling, to take punitive measures to enforce discipline. Meanwhile, the nation loses crores for every day the parliament is in session.

At the end of its logical tether, credence is given in some quarters to reports that some Vastu experts rue the day the British created a Chamber of Princes that was round. Because, it is this self-same round building that independent India converted into its parliament. Round buildings in Vastu Shashtra symbolise infinity and/or death/the afterlife, and do not make for the practicality and good sense a rectangular parliament might have imparted.

Meanwhile, parliamentarians from other countries, students from swish colleges abroad, visiting royalty, troops of monks, military generals,  populist dictators, communist bosses, other exotic visitors, come and watch the functioning of the biggest democracy on earth run its parliament in session. 

They must be carrying away some very strange impressions. If they happen to hit upon a decorous day it is quite by accident.

Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MP ‘Jay’ Panda from Odisha has been conducting a quiet campaign suggesting that we need to clip the Rajya Sabha’s wings. He cites many precedents of countries that have successfully curtailed the powers of the ‘unelected’ upper house, and details ongoing efforts in other countries which have realised how pesky the upper houses can be.

Either, says Panda, it should be legitimised by being directly elected by the people just like the Lok Sabha, or its ability to block should be limited, say to a year. But if after that, the Lok Sabha still wants to pass a particular piece of legislation, the Rajya Sabha should not be able to stop it.

This is similar to the president of India returning something for further consideration, up to three times, but having to affix his signature on it thereafter, if the government of the day still persists with its modified or original form.

Curiously, not much of a chorus has developed from Jay Panda’s lead, in the media, amongst fellow politicos, or in civil society. One pink paper did write an editorial in support, but that is more or less it so far. The edit piece writers are content to rue the non-functioning of parliament, but do not call for steps to reform it. It is suggested this is because they do not want to criticise the Congress position in favour of disrupting parliament to pressurise the government.

Panda has been served with a privilege motion for writing his opinion on the matter and giving interviews on it too. The opposition in the Rajya Sabha does not want its powers curtailed, and the government of the day is not joining issue against it either.

Panda meanwhile is on his way to being censured or disciplined for his enlightened views, and nobody is doing anything about it.

For: Swarajyamag

(1, 192 words)

December 13^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Japan's India Investment Of $30 Billion Over 5 Years Begins For Real

Japan’s India Investment Of $30 Billion Over Five Years Begins For Real

No prime minister of India before Modi dared to dream this big, and certainly no one before him made a material difference on this scale in a matter of months after taking over. None before him have managed to obtain pledges, let alone actual investment flows of $30 billion from a single country, spread over a period of five years in the history of independent India. But Japan has begun, and in earnest.

In statecraft, all the bonhomie is meant to be taken as routine diplomacy, but to witness an unforced connection between heads of government is not very common.  And to see intentions and memorandums of understanding turn into reality in the near term is equally infrequent.

Narendra Modi has achieved a rare bonding with Shinzo Abe during one of his first visits abroad as prime minister. And this is the cherry on top of the cake that is animating India-Japan bilateral relations at present.

Prime minister Abe is in India on a state visit preceded by much preparation. It is expected to yield unprecedented breakthroughs and long lasting benefits to both countries.

On the designing board for India, is Japanese technology nuclear power plants, some defence purchases for the navy, Japanese investment in highways, particularly in the long neglected North East, and India’s first bullet train between Mumbai and Ahmedabad.

There will be myriad spin offs for the Indian Railways, in terms of advanced technology, track, signalling, more speed generally. Japan will help us build state-of-the-art railway stations, clean and hygienic, almost difficult to imagine in our extended playing of a 19^th century EM Forster written scene.

There will also be more consolidation of India’s metro network, already part financed by Japan for long. And the fleshing out of Indo-Japanese industry in the largely India-Japan manufacturing corridor. Though the South Koreans and others are also involved in it, in clusters, all along the Mumbai-New Delhi highway.

While Modi’s detractors and mockers are legion, the man has a way of defying the odds and coming through on top.

This, even as his principal opposition, the dynastic Gandhis of the Congress party, may well be in some unanticipated but real danger from the legal system. They have been personally caught out subverting the working of their tax exempt political party, in favour of blatantly organising an asset grab, and monetary profit for themselves.

This unsavoury matter, exposed, has become a threat facing the oldest political party in the country at 130 years, one that has ruled for five decades and more.

Congress, in an effort to brazen it out, is holding parliament to ransom over its troubles, even as prime minister of Abe of Japan visits. But this back drop is happily not able to affect or stop the Modi-Abe juggernaut.

But Congress could nevertheless lose its tax exemption status over this, if the National Herald case in the courts goes badly. It could also, in a spiralling action like Watergate, even be debarred from contesting in  future elections, if the Election Commission takes a view on it.  

But Modi, unable to pass legislation because of Congress intransigence,  is not looking ineffective as  a consequence. Japanese FDI will come. His image as a reformer and doer is intact. Some countries have already said the postponing of GST , the Land Bill, Labour Law reforms etc. will not reduce their FII/FDI interest this country.

In something of a minuet between the two, Abe is going to accompany Modi to his constituency in the ancient holy city Varanasi, there to witness a Ganga arati. This is an echo of Modi’s visit to the temple town of Kyoto accompanied by Abe, when he visited Japan some months ago. Japan could also help in the clean Ganga effort.

Another key perception that is emerging from this visit is that the Indo-Japanese cooperation is off and running, even as the bilateral overtures with China are yet to yield very much.

But the fact that this is going so well, is likely to stimulate Chinese interest in future. For India, it can only mean more investment coming in from a wealthy neighbour.

More countries, big ones such as the US, France, Russia, and smaller others, are also getting ready to take a substantial plunge into India.

Come Republic Day next month, when President Hollande will be chief guest, many breakthroughs, including the manufacture of the Rafale fighter jets in India, and the advent of Areva nuclear power plants, the most advanced in the world, are expected to fructify.

Meanwhile, it is Japan that is leading the charge.

For: The Quint

(762 words)

December 11^th 2015

Gautam Mukherjee